Main Article Content
Abstract
Coronavirus or Covid-19 outbreak has been declared as a pandemic and many countries were not ready to deal with such an eventuality. The highly rapid rate of transmission is one reason for the need to take mitigation measures, since healthcare system has limited capacity. Indonesia is one of the countries that has lost medical resources to the pandemic. In order to provide more comprehensive information about the characteristics of Covid-19 in Indonesia, risk analysis of the occurrence of new cases was needed. This study proposes a related overview about risk occurrence of new Covid-19 cases per daily basis by performing distribution fitting technique to form a statistical distribution model. Among the available alternative models, Geometric distribution is the most suitable to describe the growth of new cases in Indonesia.
Received February 12, 2021
Revised March 25, 2021
Accepted April 15, 2021
Article Details
References
- Bain, L. J., and Engelhardt, M. “Introduction to Probability and Mathematical Statistics”, Pacific Grove: Duxbury, 1992.
- Ducharme, J. “World Health Organization Declares Covid-19 a 'Pandemic.' Here's What That Means”, Accessed on 10 September 2020. https://time.com/5791661/who-coronavirus-pandemic-declaration/, 2020.
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References
Bain, L. J., and Engelhardt, M. “Introduction to Probability and Mathematical Statistics”, Pacific Grove: Duxbury, 1992.
Ducharme, J. “World Health Organization Declares Covid-19 a 'Pandemic.' Here's What That Means”, Accessed on 10 September 2020. https://time.com/5791661/who-coronavirus-pandemic-declaration/, 2020.
Indonesia Covid-19 Task Force, “Peta Sebaran”, Accessed on 10 September 2020. https://covid19.go.id/peta-sebaran, 2020.
Jakarta Globe, “Indonesia Is Losing Health Workers at an Alarming Rate”, Jakarta Globe, Accessed on 20 September 2020, https://jakartaglobe.id/news/indonesia-is-losing-health-workers-at-an-alarming-rate, 2020.
Mariska, D., “Customs Office Simplifies Import Requirements for Medical Equipment”, Jakarta Globe, Accessed on 20 September 2020 https://jakartaglobe.id/news/customs-office-simplifies-import-requirements-for-medical-equipment/, 2020.
Portugues, E. G., “Notes for Nonparametric Statistics”, Madrid: University of Madrid, 2020.
Syakriah, A., Atika, S., “Patients crowd hospitals as Indonesia loses 183 'priceless' medical workers”, The Jakarta Post. Accessed on 10 September 2020. https://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2020/09/02/patients-crowd-hospitals-as-indonesia-loses-183-priceless-medical-workers.html, 2020.
Wicklin, R., “The Geometric Distribution in SAS”, SAS: Analytics, Artificial Intelligence, and Data Management, Accessed on 15 September 2020. https://blogs.sas.com/content/iml/2020/04/06/geometric-distribution-sas.html, 2020.
Worldometer, “Covid-19 Coronavirus Pandemic”, Accessed on 20 September 2020. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/, 2020.