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Abstract

CO2 emissions have been an environmental issue for decades. The trigger for the increasing concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere is the growth of industries related to burning fossil fuels for coal, natural gas, and petroleum. For nearly a century, several attempts have been made to suppress the rapid growth of CO2 . This study uses daily atmospheric  CO2  levels observed in  Mauna Loa laboratories. The method used is a Prophet that can handle seasonality and mark the change points. Almost 20% of data was missing value, which was then imputed using spline interpolation. Based on the analysis results,  CO2 levels have an upward trend throughout the year and seasonality. There is no point of change in the last ten years that shows a decrease in  CO2  levels. Using forward chaining cross-validation evaluation and error measurement, the prophet model can follow the pattern of  CO2  levels well. The average RMSE value is less than 2.0, with an MAPE value bellow 0.5%.

Keywords

Carbon dioxide Prophet Spline interpolation Time series

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Author Biographies

Arum Handini Primandari, Universitas Islam Indonesia, Indonesia

 

 

Achmad Kurniansyah Thalib, Purwadhika Digital Technology School, Indonesia

 

 

Ayundyah Kesumawati, Universitas Islam Indonesia, Indonesia

 

 

How to Cite
Primandari, A. H., Thalib, A. K., & Kesumawati, A. (2022). Analysis of Changes in Atmospheric CO2 Emissions Using Prophet Facebook. Enthusiastic : International Journal of Applied Statistics and Data Science, 2(1), 1–9. https://doi.org/10.20885/enthusiastic.vol2.iss1.art1
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