Main Article Content

Abstract

Financial globalization increase integration degree of capital flow. However, the global shock could impact many countries, either positive and negative. COVID-19 pandemic is one of the shock that affect world including ASEAN-5. This paper apply the Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model to identify the linkage among ASEAN-5 stock markets during the COVID-19 pandemic and it is used because of no spesific theory behind it. The data used in this paper is the weekly return of the composite index of ASEAN-5 stock markets from 11 March 2020 to 29 December 2021. This paper finds that there is a linkage among ASEAN-5 stock markets indicated by decreasing price index consecutive. Therefore, the implication of this paper is that the investors have to switch the investment instrument from stock to other instrument carefully. Once the negative impact begins to taper off, investors could do international stock investment.

Keywords

ASEAN-5 COVID-19 pandemic Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model International investment

Article Details

How to Cite
Fatah, B. I., Jody, J., & Budiasih, B. (2023). Causality Effect Among ASEAN-5 Stock Markets in COVID-19 Pandemic: VAR Model Approach. Enthusiastic : International Journal of Applied Statistics and Data Science, 3(1), 25–34. https://doi.org/10.20885/enthusiastic.vol3.iss1.art3

References

  1. C.P. Permata and M.A. Ghoni, “Peranan Pasar Modal dalam Perekonomian Negara Indonesia,” Jurnal AkunStie (JAS), vol. 5, no. 2, pp. 50–61, 2019, doi: 10.32767/JAS.V5I2.680.
  2. S L. Schmukler, “Financial Globalization: Gain and Pain for Developing Countries,” World Bank, Washington, D.C., USA, Working Paper 30141, 2003, vol. 1.
  3. F. Aprianto, I. Yunita, and A. Iradianty, “Analisis Kointegrasi Bursa Saham Indonesia dengan Bursa-Bursa Saham di ASEAN,” Jurnal Manajemen dan Bisnis (ALMANA), vol. 1 no. 1, pp. 114–123, 2017.
  4. A. Puspitasari, H. Siregar and T. Andati, “Analisis Integrasi Bursa Saham ASEAN 5,” Jurnal Ekonomi dan Kebijakan Pembangunan, vol. 4, no. 2, pp. 187¬–206, 2015, doi: https://doi.org/10.29244/jekp.4.2.2015.187-206.
  5. N. Hindayani, “Analisis Reaksi Pasar Saham Atas Peristiwa COVID-19 di Indonesia,” Jurnal Ilmiah MEA (Manajemen, Ekonomi, dan Akuntansi), vol. 4, no. 3, pp. 1645–1661, 2020, doi: https://doi.org/10.31955/mea.v4i3.647.
  6. R.A. Rahim and A.H. S.M. Nor, “Stock Market Linkages in the ASEAN 5 Plus 3 Countries: An Analysis of Pre- and Post-Crisis,” International Review of Business Research Papers, vol. 3, no. 4, pp. 1–9, 2007.
  7. R. Adisetiawan and Ahmadi, “Contagion Effect antar Negara ASEAN-5,” J-MAS (Jurnal Manajemen dan Sains), vol. 3, no.2, pp. 203–216, 2018, doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.33087/jmas.v3i2.58.
  8. E.N. Rachmawati, R. Saputra, D.S. Prihatin, and R.R. Yusnita, “Dampak Penerapan Lockdown terhadap Pergerakan Harga Saham pada Negara di ASEAN,” Jurnal Ekonomi KIAT, vol. 32, no. 1, pp. 110–121, 2021, doi: https://doi.org/10.25299/kiat.2021.vol32(1).7791.
  9. Y. Panjaitan and R. Novel, “Volatility Spillover among Asian Developed Stock Markets to Indonesia Stock Market During Pandemic Covid-19,” Jurnal Keuangan dan Perbankan, vol. 25, no. 2, pp. 342–354, 2021, doi: https://doi.org/10.26905/jkdp.v25i2.5532.
  10. W. Enders, Applied Econometric Time Series, 4th ed., Hoboken, USA: Wiley, 2014.
  11. D. Gunawan and W. Cahyadi, “Integrasi Pasar Saham Indonesia dengan Pasar Saham Asia,” Jurnal Pasar Modal dan Bisnis, vol. 1, no. 2, pp. 145–154, 2019, doi: https://doi.org/10.37194/jpmb.v1i2.27.
  12. C.W.J. Granger, “Investigating Causal Relation by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods,” Econometrica, vol. 37, no. 3, pp. 424–438, 1969, doi: https://doi.org/10.2307/1912791.
  13. K. Tantrakarnap, B. Bhopdhomangkul, and K. Nakhaapakorn, “Influencing Factors of COVID-19 Spreading: A Case Study of Thailand,” Journal of Public Health: From Theory to Practice (2022), vol. 30, no. 3, pp. 621–627, 2020, doi: 10.1007/s10389-020-01329-5.
  14. S. Olivia, J. Gibson, and R. Nasrudin, “Indonesia in the Time of COVID-19,” Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies, vol. 56, no. 2, pp. 143–174, 2020, doi: https://doi.org/10.1080/00074918.2020.1798581.
  15. T.C. Cheng, S. Kim and K. Koh, “The Impact of COVID-19 on Subjective Well-Being: Evidence from Singapore,” IZA - Institute of Labor Economics, Bonn, Germany, Discussion Paper No. 13702, 2020.
  16. Q.A. Chua, M.M.J. Tan, M. Verma, E.K.L. Han, L.Y. Hsu, A.R. Cook et al., “Health System Resilience in Managing the COVID-19 Pandemic: Lessons From Singapore,” BMJ Global Health, vol. 5, no. 9, pp. 1–8, 2020, doi: 10.1136/bmjgh-2020-003317.
  17. A.A. Altahir, N. Mathur, L. Thirucelvam, G.E.M. Abro, S.S.M. Radzi, S.C. Dass et al., “Modeling the Impact of Lock-Down on COVID-19 Spread in Malaysia,” 2020, bioRxiv 2020.07.17.208371.
  18. S.M.C. Cua, “Economic Impacts of COVID-19 Pandemic: A Look into China, United States, and Philippine Stock Market Performances,” Philippine Association for Chinese Studies, pp. 344–376, 2021.
  19. J. Supranto, STATISTIK: Teori dan Aplikasi Edisi Kedelapan, Jakarta, Indonesia: Penerbit Erlangga, 2016.
  20. J. Friedman and Y. Shachmurove, “Co-Movement of Major European Community Stock Markets: A Vector Autoregression Analysis,” Global Finance Journal, vol. 8, no. 2, pp. 257–277, 1997, doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/S1044-0283(97)90019-3.