Main Article Content
Abstract
Purpose – The study investigates the performance of non-performing financing (NPF) in the housing sector concerning the asymmetric influence of macroeconomic conditions.
Methodology – The method of the study adopts nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL), while the data of the study ranges from 2014m6 to 2022m2.
Finding – The findings reveal an asymmetric relationship between macroeconomic variables and NPF is present both in the short and long run. In addition, the COVID-19 has worsened the NPF of Islamic banks' home financing in some sectors in the short run, while only such financing in the flat and apartment market has suffered during the pandemic in the long run.
Implication – The implication of the study suggests that the Islamic banking industry and financial authority need robust risk management and financial policies, respectively, to achieve and maintain the stability of Islamic banks in home financing activities.
Originality – The study is original in measuring the impact of macroeconomic influences on Islamic banks' home financing from a nonlinear viewpoint.
Keywords
Article Details
Copyright (c) 2023 Faaza Fakhrunnas, Mohammad Abdul Matin Chowdhury, MB Hendrie Anto
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References
- Adzis, A.A., Lim, H. E., Yeok, S. G., & Saha, A. (2021). Malaysian residential mortgage loan default: a micro-level analysis. Review of Behavioral Finance, 13(5), 663–681. https://doi.org/10.1108/RBF-03-2020-0047
- Abid, L., Ouertani, M. N., & Zouari-Ghorbel, S. (2014). Macroeconomic and bank-specific determinants of household's check original title Non-performing Loans in Tunisia: A dynamic panel data. Procedia Economics and Finance, 13, 58-68. https://doi.org/10.1016/s2212-5671(14)00430-4
- Akça, T. (2022). House price dynamics and relations with the macroeconomic indicators in Turkey. International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis. https://doi.org/10.1108/IJHMA-04-2022-0059
- Albaity, M., Mallek, R. S., & Noman, A. H. M. (2019). Competition and bank stability in the MENA region: The moderating effect of Islamic versus conventional banks. Emerging Markets Review, 38(June 2018), 310–325. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ememar.2019.01.003
- Ali, S. S. (2007). Financial distress and bank failure: Lessons from closure of Ihlas Finans in Turkey. Islamic Economic Studies, 14(1), 1–52.
- Anto, M. H., Fakhrunnas, F., & Tumewang, Y. K. (2022). Islamic banks credit risk performance for home financing: Before and during Covid-19 pandemic. Economic Journal of Emerging Markets, 14(1), 113–125. https://doi.org/10.20885/ejem.vol14.iss1.art9
- Arshad, N., Ismail, M. T., & Rahman, R. A. (2018). Macroeconomic determinants of selected Asia housing market. AIP Conference Proceedings, 1974. https://doi.org/10.1063/1.5041675
- Bakar, H. O., & Sulong, Z. (2018). The role of financial sector on economic growth: Theoretical and empirical literature reviews analysis check original title. Journal of Global Economics, 06(04), 1–6. https://doi.org/10.4172/2375-4389.1000309
- Bernanke, B., & Gertler, M. (1989). Agency costs, net worth, and business fluctuations. The American Economic Review, 79(1), 251–260.
- Bernanke, B. S., Gertler, M., & Gilchrist, S. (1999). The financial accelerator in a quantitative business cycle framework. In J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (Eds.), Handbook of Macroeconomics (Volume 1, pp. 1341–1393). Elsevier. https://doi.org/10.1016/S1574-0048(99)10034-X
- Bussiere, M. (2012). Exchange rate pass-through to trade prices : The role of nonlinearities and asymmetries. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 75, 731–758. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0084.2012.00711.x
- Case, K., Quigley, J., & Shiller, R. (2005). Comparing wealth effects: The stock market versus the housing market. Advances in Macroeconomics, Berkeley Electronic Press just put name of journal, 5(1), 1235–1235.
- Cheah, S., Tunku, U., Rahman, A., Yiew, T., Tunku, U., Rahman, A., Ng, C., Tunku, U., & Rahman, A. (2017). A nonlinear ARDL analysis on the relation between stock price and exchange. Economics Bulletin, 37(1), 336–346.
- Deng, Y., Zeng, Y., & Li, Z. (2019). Real estate prices and systemic banking crises. Economic Modelling, 80(December 2017), 111–120. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2018.09.032
- Dickey, D. A. & Fuller, W. A. (1981). Distribution of the estimators for autoregressive time series with a Unit Root. Journal of the American Statistical Association, July 2015, 37–41. https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.1979.10482531
- Elnahass, M., Trinh, V. Q., & Li, T. (2021). Global banking stability in the shadow of Covid-19 outbreak. Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions & Money, 72, 101322. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.intfin.2021.101322
- Fakhrunnas, F., Nuri, R., Nugrohowati, I., Haron, R., Bekti, M., & Anto, H. (2022). The determinants of non-performing loans in the Indonesian banking industry : An asymmetric approach before and During the Pandemic Crisis. Sage Open, April-June, 1–13. https://doi.org/10.1177/21582440221102421
- Fakhrunnas, F., Tumewang, Y. K., & Anto, M. B. H. (2021). The impact of inflation on Islamic banks' home financing risk : Before and during the COVID-19 outbreak. Banks and Bank Systems, 16(2), 78–90. https://doi.org/10.21511/bbs.16(2).2021.08
- Habanabakize, T., & Dickason, Z. (2022). Political risk and macroeconomic effect of housing prices in South Africa. Cogent Economics and Finance, 10(1) page numbers. https://doi.org/10.1080/23322039.2022.2054525
- IFSB (2019). Islamic Financial Services Industry Stability Report.
- Kabir, M. N., Worthington, A., & Gupta, R. (2015). Comparative credit risk in Islamic and conventional bank. Pacific Basin Finance Journal, 34, 327–353. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pacfin.2015.06.001
- Kasri, R. a., & Azzahra, C. (2020). View of Do Islamic banks more stable than conventional banks_ Evidence from Indonesia.pdf check original title. Jurnal Ekonomi & Ekonomi Islam, 6(2), 149–164.
- Khattak, M. A., Hamid, B. A., Islam, M. U., & Ali, M. (2021). Competition, diversification, and stability in the Indonesian banking system. Bulletin of Monetary,Economics and Banking, Special Issue, volume/issue missing 59–88.
- Kiyotaki, N., & Moore, J. (1997). Credit cycles. Journal of Policy Modeling, 105(2), 211–248.
- Klein, N. (2013). Non-Performing Loans in CESEE: Determinants and impact on macroeconomic performance. IMF Working Papers, 13(72), 1. https://doi.org/10.5089/9781484318522.001
- Koetter, M., & Poghosyan, T. (2010). Real estate prices and bank stability. Journal of Banking and Finance, 34(6), 1129–1138. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2009.11.010
- Laurinavicius, A., Laurinavicius, A., & Laurinavicius, A. (2022). Macroeconomic variables influencing housing prices in vilnius. International Journal of Strategic Property Management, 26(1), 24–34.
- Lo, D., McCord, M., Davis, P. T., McCord, J., & Haran, M. E. (2022). Causal relationships between the price-to-rent ratio and macroeconomic factors: A UK perspective. Journal of Property Investment and Finance. https://doi.org/10.1108/JPIF-08-2021-0068
- Mahmoudinia, D., & Mostolizadeh, S. M. (2022). (A)symmetric interaction between house prices, stock market and exchange rates using linear and nonlinear approach: the case of Iran. International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis. https://doi.org/10.1108/IJHMA-01-2022-0008
- Michail, N., & Koursaros, D. (2022). Can monetary policy affect bank behaviour? Evidence from bank credit standards. CESifo Economic Studies, 68(2), 184–199. https://doi.org/10.1093/cesifo/ifac004
- Gunsel, N. (2012). Micro and macro determinants of bank fragility in North Cyprus economy. African Journal of Business Management, 6(4), 1323 1329. https://doi.org/10.5897/ajbm11.1055
- Olson, D., & Zoubi, T. A. (2008). Using accounting ratios to distinguish between Islamic and conventional banks in the GCC region. International Journal of Accounting, 43(1), 45–65. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.intacc.2008.01.003
- Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y., & Smith, R. J. (2001). Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16(3), 289–326. https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.616
- Redzuan, N. H., Kassim, S., & Abdullah, A. (2018). Rental yield as an alternative to interest rate in pricing musyarakah mutanaqisah home financing – The case for Malaysia. Al-Shajarah, Special Issue: Islamic Banking And Finance, 69–88.
- Rinaldi, L., & Sanchis-Arellano, A. (2006). Household debt sustainability: What explains household non-performing loans? An empirical analysis. ECB Working Paper.
- Samad, A. (2019). Determinants of efficiency of the Islamic banks of bangladesh during 2008-2012. Journal of Islamic Banking and Finance, 7(1), 1–13. https://doi.org/10.15640/jibf.v7n1a1
- Shen, Y., Chi‐man Hui, E., & Liu, H. (2005). Housing price bubbles in Beijing and Shanghai. Management Decision, 43(4), 611–627. https://doi.org/10.1108/00251740510593594
- Shin, Y., & Greenwood-Nimmo, M. (2014). Modelling asymmetric cointegration and dynamic multipliers in a nonlinear ARDL framework. In R. Sickels and W. Horrace (Ed.), In Festschrift in Honor of Peter Schmidt: Econometric Methods and Applications (Vol. 44, Issue 0). Springer.
- Sriyana, J., & Ge, J. J. (2019). Asymmetric responses of fiscal policy to the inflation rate in Indonesia. Economics Bulletin, 39(3), 1701–1713.
- Starr, M. A., & Yilmaz, R. (2007). bank runs in emerging-market economies : Evidence from Turkey's special finance houses. Southern Economic Journal, 73(4), 1112–1132.
- Yao, R., & Zhang, H. H. (2005). Optimal consumption and portfolio choices with risky housing and borrowing constraints. Review of Financial Studies, 18(1), 197–239. https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhh007
- Yusof, R M, & Usman, F. H. (2015). Islamic home financing and the real sectors in Malaysia: an Ardl Bound Testing Approach To Cointegration. International Journal of Economics, Management and Accounting International Journal of Economics Management and Accounting, 23(1), 79–107.
- Yusof, R M, Usman, F. H., Mahfudz, A. A., & Arif, A. S. (2018). Macroeconomic shocks, fragility and home financing in Malaysia: Can rental index be the answer? Journal of Islamic Accounting and Business Research, 9(1), 17–44. https://doi.org/10.1108/JIABR-11-2015-0058
- Yusof, Rosylin Mohd, Wahab, N. A., Hamzah, H., & Yeop, O. (2017). Does home financing promote affordability of home ownership in Malaysia? An empirical analysis between Islamic and conventional banks. International Journal of Economics, Management and Accounting, 25(3), 601–627.
References
Adzis, A.A., Lim, H. E., Yeok, S. G., & Saha, A. (2021). Malaysian residential mortgage loan default: a micro-level analysis. Review of Behavioral Finance, 13(5), 663–681. https://doi.org/10.1108/RBF-03-2020-0047
Abid, L., Ouertani, M. N., & Zouari-Ghorbel, S. (2014). Macroeconomic and bank-specific determinants of household's check original title Non-performing Loans in Tunisia: A dynamic panel data. Procedia Economics and Finance, 13, 58-68. https://doi.org/10.1016/s2212-5671(14)00430-4
Akça, T. (2022). House price dynamics and relations with the macroeconomic indicators in Turkey. International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis. https://doi.org/10.1108/IJHMA-04-2022-0059
Albaity, M., Mallek, R. S., & Noman, A. H. M. (2019). Competition and bank stability in the MENA region: The moderating effect of Islamic versus conventional banks. Emerging Markets Review, 38(June 2018), 310–325. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ememar.2019.01.003
Ali, S. S. (2007). Financial distress and bank failure: Lessons from closure of Ihlas Finans in Turkey. Islamic Economic Studies, 14(1), 1–52.
Anto, M. H., Fakhrunnas, F., & Tumewang, Y. K. (2022). Islamic banks credit risk performance for home financing: Before and during Covid-19 pandemic. Economic Journal of Emerging Markets, 14(1), 113–125. https://doi.org/10.20885/ejem.vol14.iss1.art9
Arshad, N., Ismail, M. T., & Rahman, R. A. (2018). Macroeconomic determinants of selected Asia housing market. AIP Conference Proceedings, 1974. https://doi.org/10.1063/1.5041675
Bakar, H. O., & Sulong, Z. (2018). The role of financial sector on economic growth: Theoretical and empirical literature reviews analysis check original title. Journal of Global Economics, 06(04), 1–6. https://doi.org/10.4172/2375-4389.1000309
Bernanke, B., & Gertler, M. (1989). Agency costs, net worth, and business fluctuations. The American Economic Review, 79(1), 251–260.
Bernanke, B. S., Gertler, M., & Gilchrist, S. (1999). The financial accelerator in a quantitative business cycle framework. In J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (Eds.), Handbook of Macroeconomics (Volume 1, pp. 1341–1393). Elsevier. https://doi.org/10.1016/S1574-0048(99)10034-X
Bussiere, M. (2012). Exchange rate pass-through to trade prices : The role of nonlinearities and asymmetries. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 75, 731–758. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0084.2012.00711.x
Case, K., Quigley, J., & Shiller, R. (2005). Comparing wealth effects: The stock market versus the housing market. Advances in Macroeconomics, Berkeley Electronic Press just put name of journal, 5(1), 1235–1235.
Cheah, S., Tunku, U., Rahman, A., Yiew, T., Tunku, U., Rahman, A., Ng, C., Tunku, U., & Rahman, A. (2017). A nonlinear ARDL analysis on the relation between stock price and exchange. Economics Bulletin, 37(1), 336–346.
Deng, Y., Zeng, Y., & Li, Z. (2019). Real estate prices and systemic banking crises. Economic Modelling, 80(December 2017), 111–120. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2018.09.032
Dickey, D. A. & Fuller, W. A. (1981). Distribution of the estimators for autoregressive time series with a Unit Root. Journal of the American Statistical Association, July 2015, 37–41. https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.1979.10482531
Elnahass, M., Trinh, V. Q., & Li, T. (2021). Global banking stability in the shadow of Covid-19 outbreak. Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions & Money, 72, 101322. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.intfin.2021.101322
Fakhrunnas, F., Nuri, R., Nugrohowati, I., Haron, R., Bekti, M., & Anto, H. (2022). The determinants of non-performing loans in the Indonesian banking industry : An asymmetric approach before and During the Pandemic Crisis. Sage Open, April-June, 1–13. https://doi.org/10.1177/21582440221102421
Fakhrunnas, F., Tumewang, Y. K., & Anto, M. B. H. (2021). The impact of inflation on Islamic banks' home financing risk : Before and during the COVID-19 outbreak. Banks and Bank Systems, 16(2), 78–90. https://doi.org/10.21511/bbs.16(2).2021.08
Habanabakize, T., & Dickason, Z. (2022). Political risk and macroeconomic effect of housing prices in South Africa. Cogent Economics and Finance, 10(1) page numbers. https://doi.org/10.1080/23322039.2022.2054525
IFSB (2019). Islamic Financial Services Industry Stability Report.
Kabir, M. N., Worthington, A., & Gupta, R. (2015). Comparative credit risk in Islamic and conventional bank. Pacific Basin Finance Journal, 34, 327–353. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pacfin.2015.06.001
Kasri, R. a., & Azzahra, C. (2020). View of Do Islamic banks more stable than conventional banks_ Evidence from Indonesia.pdf check original title. Jurnal Ekonomi & Ekonomi Islam, 6(2), 149–164.
Khattak, M. A., Hamid, B. A., Islam, M. U., & Ali, M. (2021). Competition, diversification, and stability in the Indonesian banking system. Bulletin of Monetary,Economics and Banking, Special Issue, volume/issue missing 59–88.
Kiyotaki, N., & Moore, J. (1997). Credit cycles. Journal of Policy Modeling, 105(2), 211–248.
Klein, N. (2013). Non-Performing Loans in CESEE: Determinants and impact on macroeconomic performance. IMF Working Papers, 13(72), 1. https://doi.org/10.5089/9781484318522.001
Koetter, M., & Poghosyan, T. (2010). Real estate prices and bank stability. Journal of Banking and Finance, 34(6), 1129–1138. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2009.11.010
Laurinavicius, A., Laurinavicius, A., & Laurinavicius, A. (2022). Macroeconomic variables influencing housing prices in vilnius. International Journal of Strategic Property Management, 26(1), 24–34.
Lo, D., McCord, M., Davis, P. T., McCord, J., & Haran, M. E. (2022). Causal relationships between the price-to-rent ratio and macroeconomic factors: A UK perspective. Journal of Property Investment and Finance. https://doi.org/10.1108/JPIF-08-2021-0068
Mahmoudinia, D., & Mostolizadeh, S. M. (2022). (A)symmetric interaction between house prices, stock market and exchange rates using linear and nonlinear approach: the case of Iran. International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis. https://doi.org/10.1108/IJHMA-01-2022-0008
Michail, N., & Koursaros, D. (2022). Can monetary policy affect bank behaviour? Evidence from bank credit standards. CESifo Economic Studies, 68(2), 184–199. https://doi.org/10.1093/cesifo/ifac004
Gunsel, N. (2012). Micro and macro determinants of bank fragility in North Cyprus economy. African Journal of Business Management, 6(4), 1323 1329. https://doi.org/10.5897/ajbm11.1055
Olson, D., & Zoubi, T. A. (2008). Using accounting ratios to distinguish between Islamic and conventional banks in the GCC region. International Journal of Accounting, 43(1), 45–65. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.intacc.2008.01.003
Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y., & Smith, R. J. (2001). Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16(3), 289–326. https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.616
Redzuan, N. H., Kassim, S., & Abdullah, A. (2018). Rental yield as an alternative to interest rate in pricing musyarakah mutanaqisah home financing – The case for Malaysia. Al-Shajarah, Special Issue: Islamic Banking And Finance, 69–88.
Rinaldi, L., & Sanchis-Arellano, A. (2006). Household debt sustainability: What explains household non-performing loans? An empirical analysis. ECB Working Paper.
Samad, A. (2019). Determinants of efficiency of the Islamic banks of bangladesh during 2008-2012. Journal of Islamic Banking and Finance, 7(1), 1–13. https://doi.org/10.15640/jibf.v7n1a1
Shen, Y., Chi‐man Hui, E., & Liu, H. (2005). Housing price bubbles in Beijing and Shanghai. Management Decision, 43(4), 611–627. https://doi.org/10.1108/00251740510593594
Shin, Y., & Greenwood-Nimmo, M. (2014). Modelling asymmetric cointegration and dynamic multipliers in a nonlinear ARDL framework. In R. Sickels and W. Horrace (Ed.), In Festschrift in Honor of Peter Schmidt: Econometric Methods and Applications (Vol. 44, Issue 0). Springer.
Sriyana, J., & Ge, J. J. (2019). Asymmetric responses of fiscal policy to the inflation rate in Indonesia. Economics Bulletin, 39(3), 1701–1713.
Starr, M. A., & Yilmaz, R. (2007). bank runs in emerging-market economies : Evidence from Turkey's special finance houses. Southern Economic Journal, 73(4), 1112–1132.
Yao, R., & Zhang, H. H. (2005). Optimal consumption and portfolio choices with risky housing and borrowing constraints. Review of Financial Studies, 18(1), 197–239. https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhh007
Yusof, R M, & Usman, F. H. (2015). Islamic home financing and the real sectors in Malaysia: an Ardl Bound Testing Approach To Cointegration. International Journal of Economics, Management and Accounting International Journal of Economics Management and Accounting, 23(1), 79–107.
Yusof, R M, Usman, F. H., Mahfudz, A. A., & Arif, A. S. (2018). Macroeconomic shocks, fragility and home financing in Malaysia: Can rental index be the answer? Journal of Islamic Accounting and Business Research, 9(1), 17–44. https://doi.org/10.1108/JIABR-11-2015-0058
Yusof, Rosylin Mohd, Wahab, N. A., Hamzah, H., & Yeop, O. (2017). Does home financing promote affordability of home ownership in Malaysia? An empirical analysis between Islamic and conventional banks. International Journal of Economics, Management and Accounting, 25(3), 601–627.