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Abstract
Purpose – This study aims to analyze the behavior of investors' investment decisions, as reflected in the volatility of stock prices, especially at PT Bank Syariah Indonesia Tbk (BSI). The analysis here compares aspects of rationality and irrationality as well as their relationship with the stock prices of Bank Syariah Indonesia.
Methodology – This study uses the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) method to test aspects of rationality proxied by Price-to-Book Value (PBV) and Price-to-Earnings Ratio (PER), while aspects of irrationality proxied by mood sentiment (SWAV). Data were collected from February 2021 to February 2024 on a monthly basis, resulting in 37 research samples.
Findings – The results show that PBV, PER, and mood sentiment have a significant effect on BSI stock prices. In the long term, PBV has a positive effect, while PER and mood sentiment have negative effects on BSI stock prices. In this situation, mood sentiment has the greatest influence on BSI stock prices, indicating that the volatility of BSI stocks is driven by irrationality.
Implications – As the stock price is driven mostly by irrationality, investors must have fundamental and macroeconomic analysis skills as well as expertise when buying and selling stocks in order to minimize losses due to the irrational behavior. In addition, regulators and companies must provide transparent and accurate information to investors to reduce the irrational behavior.
Originality – This study modifies the objective of Islamic banks’ stock prices in Indonesia by elaborating rational and irrational factors as the determinants of stock prices.
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Copyright (c) 2025 Hafidz Yudhanto Kresnaputra, An'im Kafabih
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References
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- Ahmad, Z., Ibrahim, H., & Tuyon, J. (2017). Institutional investor behavioral biases: Syntheses of theory and evidence. Management Research Review, 40(5), 578–603. https://doi.org/10.1108/MRR-04-2016-0091
- Bacha, O. I., & Mirakhor, A. (2013). Islamic Capital Markets. John Wiley & Sons Singapore Pte. Ltd.
- Badan Pusat Statistik. (2023). PDB triwulanan atas dasar harga berlaku menurut pengeluaran (Milyar Rupiah), 2022-2023. Badan Pusat Statistik. https://www.bps.go.id/id/statistics-table/2/MTk1NSMy/-seri-2010--1--pdb-triwulanan-atas-dasar-harga-berlaku-menurut-pengeluaran--milyar-rupiah-.html
- Baker, M., & Wurgler, J. (2007). Investor sentiment in the stock market. The Journal of Economic Perspectives, 21(2), 129–151. https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.21.2.129
- Bondt, W. F. M. D., & Thaler, R. (1985). Does the stock market overreact? The Journal of Finance, 40(3), 793–805. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.1985.tb05004.x
- Bouteska, A., & Regaieg, B. (2020). Loss aversion, overconfidence of investors and their impact on market performance evidence from the US stock markets. Journal of Economics, Finance and Administrative Science, 25(50), 451–478. https://doi.org/10.1108/JEFAS-07-2017-0081
- Brown, R. L., Durbin, J., & Evans, J. M. (1975). Techniques for testing the constancy of regression relationships over time. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, 37(2), 149–192. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.2517-6161.1975.tb01532.x
- Budiyarno, A. T., & Prasetyoningrum, A. K. (2019). Pengaruh dividend per share, earning per share, dan price earning ratio terhadap harga saham syariah. Management & Accounting, 2(2), 134-145. https://doi.org/10.36441/mae.v2i2.105
- Bustani, B., Kurniaty, K., & Widyanti, R. (2021). The effect of earning per share, price to book value, dividend payout ratio, and net profit margin on the stock price in Indonesia stock exchange. Jurnal Maksipreneur: Manajemen, Koperasi, Dan Entrepreneurship, 11(1), 1-18. https://doi.org/10.30588/jmp.v11i1.810
- Can, T. Le, Le, M. D., & Yu, K. C. (2023). Music sentiment and the stock market in Vietnam. Journal of Asian Business and Economic Studies, 31(1), 74-83. https://doi.org/10.1108/JABES-07-2022-0170
- Chopra, R. R. (2022). Sustainability assessment of crops’ production in India: Empirical evidence from ARDL-ECM approach. Journal of Agribusiness in Developing and Emerging Economies. 13(3), 468-489. https://doi.org/10.1108/JADEE-06-2021-0153
- De Long, J. B., Shleifer, A., & Summers, L. H. (1990). Noise trader risk in financial markets. In Waldmann Source: Journal of Political Economy, 98(4), 703-738. https://www.jstor.org/stable/2937765
- Edmans, A., Fernandez-Perez, A., Garel, A., & Indriawan, I. (2022). Music sentiment and stock returns around the world. Journal of Financial Economics, 145(2), 234–254. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2021.08.014
- Fama, E. F. (1970). Efficient capital markets: A review of theory and empirical work. The Journal of Finance, 25(2), 383–417. https://doi.org/10.2307/2325486
- Fernandez-Perez, A., Garel, A., & Indriawan, I. (2020). Music sentiment and stock returns. Economics Letters, 192, 1-6. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2020.109260
- Goetzmann, W. N., Kim, D., Kumar, A., & Wang, Q. (2014). Weather-Induced Mood, Institutional Investors, and Stock Returns. https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhu063
- Gujarati, D. N., & Porter, D. C. (2008). Basic Economics (Fifth). McGraw-Hill/Irwin.
- Hong, H., & Yu, J. (2002). Gone fishin’: Seasonality in trading activity and asset price. The American Economic Review, 92(5). http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.676743
- Hulu, H. P. (2023). Analisis determinan return saham perusahaan publik subsektor transportasi. Owner: Riset & Jurnal Akuntansi, 7(3), 2633–2639. https://doi.org/10.33395/owner.v7i3.1540
- Januardin, J., Wulandari, S., Simatupang, I., Meliana, I. A., & Alfarisi, M. (2020). Pengaruh DER, NPM, dan PER terhadap return saham pada perusahaan sektor property and real estate di bursa efek Indonesia. Owner (Riset dan Jurnal Akuntansi), 4(2), 423. https://doi.org/10.33395/owner.v4i2.251
- Kaur, M., Jain, J., & Sood, K. (2023). All are investing in Crypto, I fear of being missed out: examining the influence of herding, loss aversion, and overconfidence in the cryptocurrency market with the mediating effect of FOMO. Quality and Quantity. 58. 2237-2263. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11135-023-01739-z
- Kaustia, M., & Rantapuska, E. (2016). Does mood affect trading behavior? Journal of Financial Markets, 29, 1–26. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.finmar.2015.08.001
- Kumar, S., & Goyal, N. (2016). Evidence on rationality and behavioural biases in investment decision making. Qualitative Research in Financial Markets, 8(4), 270–287. https://doi.org/10.1108/QRFM-05-2016-0016
- Lee, T. K., & Koshoev, A. (2023). Investor sentiments revisited: negligence of stock-level sentiments may be a mistake. Review of Behavioral Finance, 16(3), 460-485 https://doi.org/10.1108/RBF-02-2023-0037
- Mariana, C. (2016). Pengaruh kinerja keuangan dan kebijakan dividen terhadap harga saham (Survei pada perusahaan sektor property dan real estate di bursa efek Indonesia Tahun 2013. Jurnal Ilmiah Akuntansi, 1(1), 22–42). https://doi.org/10.23887/jia.v1i1.9981
- Masrizal, Sukmana, R., Al Mustofa, M. U., & Herianingrum, S. (2021). Can country risks predict Islamic stock index? Evidence from Indonesia. Journal of Islamic Accounting and Business Research, 12(7), 1000–1014. https://doi.org/10.1108/JIABR-04-2020-0127
- Mutiarani, N. N., & Dewi, R. R. (2019). Pengaruh price earning ratio, price to book value, dan inflasi terhadap harga saham yang terindeks IDX 30. Edunomika, 3(2), 433-443. http://dx.doi.org/10.29040/jie.v3i02.639
- Narayan, P. K. (2005). The saving and investment nexus for China: Evidence from cointegration tests. Applied Economics, 37(17), 1979–1990. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036840500278103
- Nawangwulan, A. D., Ilat, V., Warongan, J. D. L. (2018). Pengaruh total revenue dan laba bersih terhadap harga saham (Studi pada perusahaan manufaktur yang terdaftar di bursa efek Indonesia). Jurnal Riset Akuntansi Going Concern, 13(3), 174-183. https://doi.org/10.32400/gc.13.03.20068.2018
- Nguyen, H. M., & Ngoc, B. H. (2020). Energy consumption - Economic growth nexus in vietnam: An ARDL approach with a structural break. Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business, 7(1), 101–110. https://doi.org/10.13106/jafeb.2020.vol7.no1.101
- Nugroho, R. A. (2023, December 6). Orang RI makan tabungan, habis buat staycation? CNBC Indonesia. https://www.cnbcindonesia.com/news/20231206105207-4-494921/orang-ri-makan-tabungan-habis-buat-staycation
- Nyakurukwa, K., & Seetharam, Y. (2023). Alternatives to the efficient market hypothesis: an overview. Journal of Capital Markets Studies, 7(2), 111–124. https://doi.org/10.1108/jcms-04-2023-0014
- Parvin, S. M. R., & Panakaje, D. N. (2022). Factors influencing stock market participation: A review. International Journal of Case Studies in Business, IT and Education (IJCSBE) A Refereed International Journal of Srinivas University, 6(2), 2581–6942. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7499643
- Pesaran, M. H. (2015). Time series and panel data econometric. Oxford University Press.
- Prasad, S., Kiran, R., & Sharma, R. K. (2021). Behavioural, socio-economic factors, financial literacy and investment decisions: Are men more rational and women more emotional? The Indian Economic Journal, 69(1), 66–87. https://doi.org/10.1177/0019466220987023
- Pražák, T. (2018). The effect of economic factors on performance of the stock market in the Czech Republic. Acta Universitatis Agriculturae et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis, 66(6), 1613–1626. https://doi.org/10.11118/actaun201866061613
- Robbins, S. P., & Judge, T. A. (2022). Essentials of organizational behavior (Fifteenth). Pearson Education Limited.
- Saji, T. G. (2021). Asian stock market integration after the global financial crisis: An ARDL bound testing approach. Managerial Finance, 47(11), 1651–1671. https://doi.org/10.1108/MF-08-2020-0430
- Salman, A., & Nawaz, H. (2018). Islamic financial system and conventional banking: A comparison. Arab Economic and Business Journal, 13(2), 155–167. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aebj.2018.09.003
- Shavit, T., & Adam, A. M. (2011). A preliminary exploration of the effects of rational factors and behavioral biases on the managerial choice to invest in corporate responsibility. Managerial and Decision Economics, 32(3), 205–213. https://doi.org/10.1002/mde.1530
- Shu, H. C. (2010). Investor mood and financial markets. Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, 76(2), 267–282. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2010.06.004
- Siagian, Y. W. O., Sinaga, R., Sinaga, E., & Br.Sinaga, J. B. L. A. (2020). Pengaruh earning per share (EPS).,return on equity (ROE), dan price book value (PBV) terhadap harga saham pada perusahaan perbankan yang terdaftar di bursa efek Indonesia Tahun 2015-2017. Owner (Riset dan Jurnal Akuntansi), 4(2), 387-395. https://doi.org/10.33395/owner.v4i2.270
- Sood, K., Pathak, P., & Gupta, S. (2024). How do the determinants of investment decisions get prioritized? Peeking into the minds of investors. Kybernetes. https://doi.org/10.1108/K-04-2023-0662
- Supino, E., Tenucci, A., & Di Nanna, G. (2024). Sports failures and stock returns between rationality and emotionality: Evidence from the UEFA champions league. Research in International Business and Finance, 70, 102359. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ribaf.2024.102359
- Surjanto, D., & Sugiharto, T. (2021). LQ45 stock price valuation analysis using price to book value (PBV) and price earning ratio (PER) variables from 2016-2020. Enrichment: Journal of Management, 12(1), 205-211. https://enrichment.iocspublisher.org/index.php/enrichment/article/view/192
- Truong, Q. T., Tran, Q. N., Bakry, W., Nguyen, D. N., & Al-Mohamad, S. (2021). Football sentiment and stock market returns: Evidence from a frontier market. Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, 30, 1-9. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbef.2021.100472.
References
Ahmad, M. (2024). The role of cognitive heuristic-driven biases in investment management activities and market efficiency: A research synthesis. International Journal of Emerging Markets, 19(2), 273–321. https://doi.org/10.1108/IJOEM-07-2020-0749
Ahmad, Z., Ibrahim, H., & Tuyon, J. (2017). Institutional investor behavioral biases: Syntheses of theory and evidence. Management Research Review, 40(5), 578–603. https://doi.org/10.1108/MRR-04-2016-0091
Bacha, O. I., & Mirakhor, A. (2013). Islamic Capital Markets. John Wiley & Sons Singapore Pte. Ltd.
Badan Pusat Statistik. (2023). PDB triwulanan atas dasar harga berlaku menurut pengeluaran (Milyar Rupiah), 2022-2023. Badan Pusat Statistik. https://www.bps.go.id/id/statistics-table/2/MTk1NSMy/-seri-2010--1--pdb-triwulanan-atas-dasar-harga-berlaku-menurut-pengeluaran--milyar-rupiah-.html
Baker, M., & Wurgler, J. (2007). Investor sentiment in the stock market. The Journal of Economic Perspectives, 21(2), 129–151. https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.21.2.129
Bondt, W. F. M. D., & Thaler, R. (1985). Does the stock market overreact? The Journal of Finance, 40(3), 793–805. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.1985.tb05004.x
Bouteska, A., & Regaieg, B. (2020). Loss aversion, overconfidence of investors and their impact on market performance evidence from the US stock markets. Journal of Economics, Finance and Administrative Science, 25(50), 451–478. https://doi.org/10.1108/JEFAS-07-2017-0081
Brown, R. L., Durbin, J., & Evans, J. M. (1975). Techniques for testing the constancy of regression relationships over time. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, 37(2), 149–192. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.2517-6161.1975.tb01532.x
Budiyarno, A. T., & Prasetyoningrum, A. K. (2019). Pengaruh dividend per share, earning per share, dan price earning ratio terhadap harga saham syariah. Management & Accounting, 2(2), 134-145. https://doi.org/10.36441/mae.v2i2.105
Bustani, B., Kurniaty, K., & Widyanti, R. (2021). The effect of earning per share, price to book value, dividend payout ratio, and net profit margin on the stock price in Indonesia stock exchange. Jurnal Maksipreneur: Manajemen, Koperasi, Dan Entrepreneurship, 11(1), 1-18. https://doi.org/10.30588/jmp.v11i1.810
Can, T. Le, Le, M. D., & Yu, K. C. (2023). Music sentiment and the stock market in Vietnam. Journal of Asian Business and Economic Studies, 31(1), 74-83. https://doi.org/10.1108/JABES-07-2022-0170
Chopra, R. R. (2022). Sustainability assessment of crops’ production in India: Empirical evidence from ARDL-ECM approach. Journal of Agribusiness in Developing and Emerging Economies. 13(3), 468-489. https://doi.org/10.1108/JADEE-06-2021-0153
De Long, J. B., Shleifer, A., & Summers, L. H. (1990). Noise trader risk in financial markets. In Waldmann Source: Journal of Political Economy, 98(4), 703-738. https://www.jstor.org/stable/2937765
Edmans, A., Fernandez-Perez, A., Garel, A., & Indriawan, I. (2022). Music sentiment and stock returns around the world. Journal of Financial Economics, 145(2), 234–254. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2021.08.014
Fama, E. F. (1970). Efficient capital markets: A review of theory and empirical work. The Journal of Finance, 25(2), 383–417. https://doi.org/10.2307/2325486
Fernandez-Perez, A., Garel, A., & Indriawan, I. (2020). Music sentiment and stock returns. Economics Letters, 192, 1-6. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2020.109260
Goetzmann, W. N., Kim, D., Kumar, A., & Wang, Q. (2014). Weather-Induced Mood, Institutional Investors, and Stock Returns. https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhu063
Gujarati, D. N., & Porter, D. C. (2008). Basic Economics (Fifth). McGraw-Hill/Irwin.
Hong, H., & Yu, J. (2002). Gone fishin’: Seasonality in trading activity and asset price. The American Economic Review, 92(5). http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.676743
Hulu, H. P. (2023). Analisis determinan return saham perusahaan publik subsektor transportasi. Owner: Riset & Jurnal Akuntansi, 7(3), 2633–2639. https://doi.org/10.33395/owner.v7i3.1540
Januardin, J., Wulandari, S., Simatupang, I., Meliana, I. A., & Alfarisi, M. (2020). Pengaruh DER, NPM, dan PER terhadap return saham pada perusahaan sektor property and real estate di bursa efek Indonesia. Owner (Riset dan Jurnal Akuntansi), 4(2), 423. https://doi.org/10.33395/owner.v4i2.251
Kaur, M., Jain, J., & Sood, K. (2023). All are investing in Crypto, I fear of being missed out: examining the influence of herding, loss aversion, and overconfidence in the cryptocurrency market with the mediating effect of FOMO. Quality and Quantity. 58. 2237-2263. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11135-023-01739-z
Kaustia, M., & Rantapuska, E. (2016). Does mood affect trading behavior? Journal of Financial Markets, 29, 1–26. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.finmar.2015.08.001
Kumar, S., & Goyal, N. (2016). Evidence on rationality and behavioural biases in investment decision making. Qualitative Research in Financial Markets, 8(4), 270–287. https://doi.org/10.1108/QRFM-05-2016-0016
Lee, T. K., & Koshoev, A. (2023). Investor sentiments revisited: negligence of stock-level sentiments may be a mistake. Review of Behavioral Finance, 16(3), 460-485 https://doi.org/10.1108/RBF-02-2023-0037
Mariana, C. (2016). Pengaruh kinerja keuangan dan kebijakan dividen terhadap harga saham (Survei pada perusahaan sektor property dan real estate di bursa efek Indonesia Tahun 2013. Jurnal Ilmiah Akuntansi, 1(1), 22–42). https://doi.org/10.23887/jia.v1i1.9981
Masrizal, Sukmana, R., Al Mustofa, M. U., & Herianingrum, S. (2021). Can country risks predict Islamic stock index? Evidence from Indonesia. Journal of Islamic Accounting and Business Research, 12(7), 1000–1014. https://doi.org/10.1108/JIABR-04-2020-0127
Mutiarani, N. N., & Dewi, R. R. (2019). Pengaruh price earning ratio, price to book value, dan inflasi terhadap harga saham yang terindeks IDX 30. Edunomika, 3(2), 433-443. http://dx.doi.org/10.29040/jie.v3i02.639
Narayan, P. K. (2005). The saving and investment nexus for China: Evidence from cointegration tests. Applied Economics, 37(17), 1979–1990. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036840500278103
Nawangwulan, A. D., Ilat, V., Warongan, J. D. L. (2018). Pengaruh total revenue dan laba bersih terhadap harga saham (Studi pada perusahaan manufaktur yang terdaftar di bursa efek Indonesia). Jurnal Riset Akuntansi Going Concern, 13(3), 174-183. https://doi.org/10.32400/gc.13.03.20068.2018
Nguyen, H. M., & Ngoc, B. H. (2020). Energy consumption - Economic growth nexus in vietnam: An ARDL approach with a structural break. Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business, 7(1), 101–110. https://doi.org/10.13106/jafeb.2020.vol7.no1.101
Nugroho, R. A. (2023, December 6). Orang RI makan tabungan, habis buat staycation? CNBC Indonesia. https://www.cnbcindonesia.com/news/20231206105207-4-494921/orang-ri-makan-tabungan-habis-buat-staycation
Nyakurukwa, K., & Seetharam, Y. (2023). Alternatives to the efficient market hypothesis: an overview. Journal of Capital Markets Studies, 7(2), 111–124. https://doi.org/10.1108/jcms-04-2023-0014
Parvin, S. M. R., & Panakaje, D. N. (2022). Factors influencing stock market participation: A review. International Journal of Case Studies in Business, IT and Education (IJCSBE) A Refereed International Journal of Srinivas University, 6(2), 2581–6942. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7499643
Pesaran, M. H. (2015). Time series and panel data econometric. Oxford University Press.
Prasad, S., Kiran, R., & Sharma, R. K. (2021). Behavioural, socio-economic factors, financial literacy and investment decisions: Are men more rational and women more emotional? The Indian Economic Journal, 69(1), 66–87. https://doi.org/10.1177/0019466220987023
Pražák, T. (2018). The effect of economic factors on performance of the stock market in the Czech Republic. Acta Universitatis Agriculturae et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis, 66(6), 1613–1626. https://doi.org/10.11118/actaun201866061613
Robbins, S. P., & Judge, T. A. (2022). Essentials of organizational behavior (Fifteenth). Pearson Education Limited.
Saji, T. G. (2021). Asian stock market integration after the global financial crisis: An ARDL bound testing approach. Managerial Finance, 47(11), 1651–1671. https://doi.org/10.1108/MF-08-2020-0430
Salman, A., & Nawaz, H. (2018). Islamic financial system and conventional banking: A comparison. Arab Economic and Business Journal, 13(2), 155–167. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aebj.2018.09.003
Shavit, T., & Adam, A. M. (2011). A preliminary exploration of the effects of rational factors and behavioral biases on the managerial choice to invest in corporate responsibility. Managerial and Decision Economics, 32(3), 205–213. https://doi.org/10.1002/mde.1530
Shu, H. C. (2010). Investor mood and financial markets. Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, 76(2), 267–282. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2010.06.004
Siagian, Y. W. O., Sinaga, R., Sinaga, E., & Br.Sinaga, J. B. L. A. (2020). Pengaruh earning per share (EPS).,return on equity (ROE), dan price book value (PBV) terhadap harga saham pada perusahaan perbankan yang terdaftar di bursa efek Indonesia Tahun 2015-2017. Owner (Riset dan Jurnal Akuntansi), 4(2), 387-395. https://doi.org/10.33395/owner.v4i2.270
Sood, K., Pathak, P., & Gupta, S. (2024). How do the determinants of investment decisions get prioritized? Peeking into the minds of investors. Kybernetes. https://doi.org/10.1108/K-04-2023-0662
Supino, E., Tenucci, A., & Di Nanna, G. (2024). Sports failures and stock returns between rationality and emotionality: Evidence from the UEFA champions league. Research in International Business and Finance, 70, 102359. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ribaf.2024.102359
Surjanto, D., & Sugiharto, T. (2021). LQ45 stock price valuation analysis using price to book value (PBV) and price earning ratio (PER) variables from 2016-2020. Enrichment: Journal of Management, 12(1), 205-211. https://enrichment.iocspublisher.org/index.php/enrichment/article/view/192
Truong, Q. T., Tran, Q. N., Bakry, W., Nguyen, D. N., & Al-Mohamad, S. (2021). Football sentiment and stock market returns: Evidence from a frontier market. Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, 30, 1-9. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbef.2021.100472.