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Abstract
This paper investigates the relationship between the immigrant population and the unemployment rate in the United States for period from 1980 to 2013. For this purpose, firstly, coefficient of long and short run is estimated by using Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) method and then, linear and nonlinear causality test are applied. Findings/Originality: According to ARDL test results; there is a positive effect of immigration to the United States on the unemployment rate to in the long run. In other words, while there is no statistically significant relationship between two variables in the short run, an increase in the immigrant population increases the unemployment rate by 0.14 percent in the long run. The bootstrapped Toda-Yamamoto linear causality test results imply that there is no causal relationship between immigration and unemployment. Also, there is no nonlinear relationship between immigration population and unemployment rate in the United States.
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References
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- Boubtane, E., Coulibaly, D. and Rault, C. (2011). “Immigration, Unemployment and Growth in the Host Country: Bootstrap Panel Granger Causality Analysis on OECD Countries”. IZA Discussion Paper, No: 5853.
- Boubtane, E., Dumont, J. C. and Rault, C. (2014). “Immigration and Economic Growth in the OECD Countries, 1986-2006”. IZA Discussion Paper, No: 8681.
- Chletsos, M. and Roupakias, S. (2012). “Immigration, Unemployment and Growth: Empricial Evidence from Greece”. MPRA, No: 39927.
- Christofides, L. N. et al. (2009). “The Impact of Immigration on Unemployment, Labour Force Participation and Part-time Employment in Cyprus”. Cyprus Economic Policy Review, Vol. 3, No. 1, pp. 51-84.
- Christofides, L. N. et al. (2009). “The Impact of Immigration on Unemployment, Labour Force Participation and Part-time Employment in Cyprus”. Cyprus Economic Policy Review, Vol. 3, No. 1, pp. 51-84.
- Dickey, D. A. and W. A. Fuller (1979).” Distribution of the estimators for autoregressive time series with a unit root”, JSTOR, Vol. 366.
- Dickey, D. A., and W. A. Fuller (1981). “Likelihood ratio statistics for autoregressive time series with a unit root”. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, pp. 1057-1072.
- Dustman, C., Fabbri, F. and Preston, I. (2005). “The Impact of Immigration on the British Labour Market”. The Economic Journal, No. 115, pp. 324-341.
- Frattini, T. (2014). “Impact of Immigration on UK Consumer Prices”. Web address: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/impact-of-migration-on-uk-consumer-prices. Access date: 08.05.2018.
- Fromentin, V. (2013). “The Relationship Between Immigration and Unemployment: The Case of France”. Economic Analysis & Policy, Vol. 43, No. 1, pp. 51-66.
- Furlanetto, F. and Robstad, Q. (2016). “Immigration and the Macroeconomy: Some New Empirical Evidence”. Norges Bank Working Paper.
- Hunt, J. (2011). “Which Immigrants Are Most Innovate and Entrepreneurial? Distinctions by Entry Visa”. Journal of Labor Economics, Vol. 29, No. 3, pp. 417-457.
- Hunt, J. and Gauthier-Loiselle, M. (2010). “How Much Does Immigration Boost Innovation?”. American Economic Journal:Macroeconomics, Vol. 2, No. 2, pp. 31-56.
- Islam, A. (2007). “Immigration Unemployment Relationship: The Evidence From Canada”. Australian Economic Papers, Vol. 46, No. 1, pp. 52-66.
- Jimenez, T. R. (2011). “Immigrants in the United States: How Well Are They Integrating into Society?”, Improving US and EU Immigration System.
- Kwok, A. (2011). “Effects of economic Performance and Immigration on Unemployment of Low-Skilled Working Force”. Journal of Applied Economics and Business Research, Vol. 1, No. 2, pp. 75-92.
- Nishiyama Y. et. al. (2011). “A consistent nonparametric test for nonlinear causality—Specification in time series regression”. Journal of Econometrics. Vol. 165, No.1, pp. 112-27.
- Ortega, F. and Peri, G. (2009). “The causes and Effects of International Migrations: evidence from OECD Countries 1980-2005”. NBER Working Paper, No: 14833.
- Pesaran M. H. and Y. Shin (1997). An autoregressive distributed lag modelling approach to cointegration analysis. Web: https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/743d/c1e8cf7eea4a2ac9bc58907f2ce08a1f5d90.pdf, Access date: 17.03.2018.
- Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y. and R. J. Smith (1996). Testing for the existence of a long run relationship, DAE Working paper No: 9622.
- Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y. and R. J. Smith (2001). “Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of long run relationship”. Journal of Applied Econometrics, Vol. 16, pp. 289-326.
- Toda H. Y., Yamamoto T. (1995). “Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes”. Journal of econometrics. Vol. 66 No. 1, pp. 225-250.
- Troschchenkov, S. (2011). “Influence of Immigration on the Unemployment rate: The case of Denmark”. Web address: https://www.diva-portal.org/smash/get/diva2:523614/FULLTEXT01.pdf, Access date: 08.05.2018.
References
Birgier, D. P. (2017). “Immigration, Occupations, and Native Wages: Long Time Trends in the US”. Research in Social Stratification and Mobility, Vol. 51. Pp. 41-55.
Borjas, G. J. (1994). “The Economic Benefits from Immigration”. NBER Working Paper Series, No: 4955.
Boubtane, E., Coulibaly, D. and Rault, C. (2011). “Immigration, Unemployment and Growth in the Host Country: Bootstrap Panel Granger Causality Analysis on OECD Countries”. IZA Discussion Paper, No: 5853.
Boubtane, E., Dumont, J. C. and Rault, C. (2014). “Immigration and Economic Growth in the OECD Countries, 1986-2006”. IZA Discussion Paper, No: 8681.
Chletsos, M. and Roupakias, S. (2012). “Immigration, Unemployment and Growth: Empricial Evidence from Greece”. MPRA, No: 39927.
Christofides, L. N. et al. (2009). “The Impact of Immigration on Unemployment, Labour Force Participation and Part-time Employment in Cyprus”. Cyprus Economic Policy Review, Vol. 3, No. 1, pp. 51-84.
Christofides, L. N. et al. (2009). “The Impact of Immigration on Unemployment, Labour Force Participation and Part-time Employment in Cyprus”. Cyprus Economic Policy Review, Vol. 3, No. 1, pp. 51-84.
Dickey, D. A. and W. A. Fuller (1979).” Distribution of the estimators for autoregressive time series with a unit root”, JSTOR, Vol. 366.
Dickey, D. A., and W. A. Fuller (1981). “Likelihood ratio statistics for autoregressive time series with a unit root”. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, pp. 1057-1072.
Dustman, C., Fabbri, F. and Preston, I. (2005). “The Impact of Immigration on the British Labour Market”. The Economic Journal, No. 115, pp. 324-341.
Frattini, T. (2014). “Impact of Immigration on UK Consumer Prices”. Web address: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/impact-of-migration-on-uk-consumer-prices. Access date: 08.05.2018.
Fromentin, V. (2013). “The Relationship Between Immigration and Unemployment: The Case of France”. Economic Analysis & Policy, Vol. 43, No. 1, pp. 51-66.
Furlanetto, F. and Robstad, Q. (2016). “Immigration and the Macroeconomy: Some New Empirical Evidence”. Norges Bank Working Paper.
Hunt, J. (2011). “Which Immigrants Are Most Innovate and Entrepreneurial? Distinctions by Entry Visa”. Journal of Labor Economics, Vol. 29, No. 3, pp. 417-457.
Hunt, J. and Gauthier-Loiselle, M. (2010). “How Much Does Immigration Boost Innovation?”. American Economic Journal:Macroeconomics, Vol. 2, No. 2, pp. 31-56.
Islam, A. (2007). “Immigration Unemployment Relationship: The Evidence From Canada”. Australian Economic Papers, Vol. 46, No. 1, pp. 52-66.
Jimenez, T. R. (2011). “Immigrants in the United States: How Well Are They Integrating into Society?”, Improving US and EU Immigration System.
Kwok, A. (2011). “Effects of economic Performance and Immigration on Unemployment of Low-Skilled Working Force”. Journal of Applied Economics and Business Research, Vol. 1, No. 2, pp. 75-92.
Nishiyama Y. et. al. (2011). “A consistent nonparametric test for nonlinear causality—Specification in time series regression”. Journal of Econometrics. Vol. 165, No.1, pp. 112-27.
Ortega, F. and Peri, G. (2009). “The causes and Effects of International Migrations: evidence from OECD Countries 1980-2005”. NBER Working Paper, No: 14833.
Pesaran M. H. and Y. Shin (1997). An autoregressive distributed lag modelling approach to cointegration analysis. Web: https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/743d/c1e8cf7eea4a2ac9bc58907f2ce08a1f5d90.pdf, Access date: 17.03.2018.
Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y. and R. J. Smith (1996). Testing for the existence of a long run relationship, DAE Working paper No: 9622.
Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y. and R. J. Smith (2001). “Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of long run relationship”. Journal of Applied Econometrics, Vol. 16, pp. 289-326.
Toda H. Y., Yamamoto T. (1995). “Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes”. Journal of econometrics. Vol. 66 No. 1, pp. 225-250.
Troschchenkov, S. (2011). “Influence of Immigration on the Unemployment rate: The case of Denmark”. Web address: https://www.diva-portal.org/smash/get/diva2:523614/FULLTEXT01.pdf, Access date: 08.05.2018.