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Abstract
Purpose ― Mishkin’s hypothesis suggests that globalization appears to be a vital factor in stimulating the development of the financial system. The study examines this hypothesis for the Turkish economy from 1970 to 2017. It focuses on the link between financial globalization and financial development by integrating economic growth, inflation, and natural resource rent as additional determinants into the financial development specification.
Methods ― The Ng-Perron and Vogelsang-Perron unit root tests are used to check the stationarity of variables. The cointegration analysis is performed using the Hatemi-J and ARDL bounds testing procedures.
Findings ― The main empirical results show that the series are cointegrated under structural breaks; in the long run, financial globalization and economic growth increase financial development while inflation and natural resource rent negatively affect financial development. A unidirectional causality exists from financial globalization and economic growth to financial development. At the same time, there is bidirectional causality between inflation and financial development, natural resource rent, and financial development.
Implications ― The empirical findings can present important recommendations for policymakers.
Originality ― Very few time-series studies include Turkey’s economy and structural breaks.
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References
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- Bittencourt, M. (2011). Inflation and financial development: Evidence from Brazil. Economic Modelling, 28(1), 91–99. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2010.09.021
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- Chen, Z. M., & Chen, G. Q. (2011). An overview of energy consumption of the globalized world economy. Energy Policy, 39(10), 5920–5928. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2011.06.046
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- Gygli, S., Haelg, F., Potrafke, N., & Sturm, J.-E. (2019). The KOF Globalisation Index – revisited. The Review of International Organizations, 14(3), 543–574. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11558-019-09344-2
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- Haseeb, A., Xia, E., Danish, Baloch, M. A., & Abbas, K. (2018). Financial development, globalization, and CO2 emission in the presence of EKC: Evidence from BRICS countries. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 25(31), 31283–31296. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-018-3034-7
- Hatemi-J, A. (2008). Tests for cointegration with two unknown regime shifts with an application to financial market integration. Empirical Economics, 35(3), 497–505. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00181-007-0175-9
- Häusler, G. (2002). The globalization of finance. Finance and Development, 39(1), 10–12.
- Helhel, Y. (2017). Küreselleşme ve finansal gelişme arasindaki etkileşimin Türkiye ve BRICS ülkeleri için incelenmesi. Mehmet Akif Ersoy Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 9(20), 158–178. https://doi.org/10.20875/makusobed.293046
- Law, S. H., Tan, H. B., & Azman-Saini, W. N. W. (2015). Globalisation, institutional reforms and financial development in East Asian economies. The World Economy, 38(2), 379–398. https://doi.org/10.1111/twec.12168
- Li, J., Lu, Y., Song, H., & Xie, H. (2019). Long-term impact of trade liberalization on human capital formation. Journal of Comparative Economics, 47(4), 946–961. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jce.2019.08.002
- Mishkin, F. S. (2009). Globalization and financial development. Journal of Development Economics, 89(2), 164–169. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2007.11.004
- Muye, I. M., & Muye, I. Y. (2017). Testing for causality among globalization, institution and financial development: Further evidence from three economic blocs. Borsa Istanbul Review, 17(2), 117–132. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.bir.2016.10.001
- Narayan, P. K. (2005). The saving and investment nexus for China: Evidence from cointegration tests. Applied Economics, 37(17), 1979–1990. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036840500278103
- Nasreen, S., Mahalik, M. K., Shahbaz, M., & Abbas, Q. (2020). How do financial globalization, institutions and economic growth impact financial sector development in European countries? Research in International Business and Finance, 54, 101247. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ribaf.2020.101247
- Ng, S., & Perron, P. (2001). LAG length selection and the construction of unit root tests with good size and power. Econometrica, 69(6), 1519–1554. https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-0262.00256
- Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y., & Smith, R. J. (2001). Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16(3), 289–326. https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.616
- Phillips, P. C. B. (1987). Time series regression with a unit root. Econometrica, 55(2), 277–301. https://doi.org/10.2307/1913237
- Phuc Canh, N., & Trung Thong, N. (2020). Nexus between financialisation and natural resources rents: Empirical evidence in a global sample. Resources Policy, 66, 101590. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resourpol.2020.101590
- Quixina, Y., & Almeida, A. (2014). Financial development and economic growth in a natural resource based economy: Evidence from Angola (FEP Working Papers No. 542).
- Rajan, R. G., & Zingales, L. (2003). The great reversals: The politics of financial development in the twentieth century. Journal of Financial Economics, 69(1), 5–50. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-405X(03)00125-9
- Satti, S. L., Shahbaz, M., Mujahid, N., & Ali, A. (2013). Impact of financial development and globalization on inflation: The role of remittance and economic growth in Bangladesh (MPRA Paper No. 51675).
- Saud, S., Chen, S., Haseeb, A., & Sumayya. (2020). The role of financial development and globalization in the environment: Accounting ecological footprint indicators for selected one-belt-one-road initiative countries. Journal of Cleaner Production, 250, 119518. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2019.119518
- Sethi, P., Chakrabarti, D., & Bhattacharjee, S. (2020). Globalization, financial development and economic growth: Perils on the environmental sustainability of an emerging economy. Journal of Policy Modeling, 42(3), 520–535. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpolmod.2020.01.007
- Shahbaz, M., Mallick, H., Mahalik, M. K., & Hammoudeh, S. (2018). Is globalization detrimental to financial development? Further evidence from a very large emerging economy with significant orientation towards policies. Applied Economics, 50(6), 574–595. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2017.1324615
- Shahbaz, M., Naeem, M., Ahad, M., & Tahir, I. (2018). Is natural resource abundance a stimulus for financial development in the USA? Resources Policy, 55, 223–232. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resourpol.2017.12.006
- Song, C.-Q., Chang, C.-P., & Gong, Q. (2021). Economic growth, corruption, and financial development: Global evidence. Economic Modelling, 94, 822–830. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2020.02.022
- Stock, J., & Watson, M. (1999). A comparison of linear and nonlinear univariate models for forecasting macroeconomic time series. In R. Engle & H. White (Eds.), Cointegration, Causality and Forecasting: A Festschrift for Clive W.J. Granger (pp. 1–44). Oxford: Oxford University Press. Retrieved from http://www.economics.harvard.edu/faculty/stock/files/Granger_Festshrift_StockandWatson.pdf
- Tornell, A., Westermann, F., & Martínez, L. (2004). The positive link between financial liberalization, growth and crises (NBER Working Paper No. 10293). Massachusetts.
- U.S. Department of State. (2020). 2020 investment climate statements: Turkey. Ankara. Retrieved from https://www.state.gov/reports/2020-investment-climate-statements/turkey/
- Uygur, E. (2010). The global crisis and the Turkish Economy (Turkish Economic Association Discussion Paper No. 2010/3).
- World Bank. (2020). World Development Indicators (2020). Washington. Retrieved from https://databank.worldbank.org/source/world-development-indicators
- Yang, F. (2019). The impact of financial development on economic growth in middle-income countries. Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, 59, 74–89. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.intfin.2018.11.008
- Zaidi, S. A. H., Wei, Z., Gedikli, A., Zafar, M. W., Hou, F., & Iftikhar, Y. (2019). The impact of globalization, natural resources abundance, and human capital on financial development: Evidence from thirty-one OECD countries. Resources Policy, 64, 101476. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resourpol.2019.101476
- Zaidi, S. A. H., Zafar, M. W., Shahbaz, M., & Hou, F. (2019). Dynamic linkages between globalization, financial development and carbon emissions: Evidence from Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation countries. Journal of Cleaner Production, 228, 533–543. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2019.04.210
References
Abu, N., & Staniewski, M. W. (2019). Determinants of corruption in Nigeria: Evidence from various estimation techniques. Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja, 32(1), 3058–3082. https://doi.org/10.1080/1331677X.2019.1655467
Adams, S. (2008). Globalization and income inequality: Implications for intellectual property rights. Journal of Policy Modeling, 30(5), 725–735. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpolmod.2007.10.005
Ahmed, Z., Zhang, B., & Cary, M. (2021). Linking economic globalization, economic growth, financial development, and ecological footprint: Evidence from symmetric and asymmetric ARDL. Ecological Indicators, 121, 1–12. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2020.107060
Alkhathlan, K., & Javid, M. (2013). Energy consumption, carbon emissions and economic growth in Saudi Arabia: An aggregate and disaggregate analysis. Energy Policy, 62, 1525–1532. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2013.07.068
Asongu, S. (2014). Financial development dynamic thresholds of financial globalization. Journal of Economic Studies, 41(2), 166–195. https://doi.org/10.1108/JES-03-2012-0039
Asongu, S. A. (2017). Assessing marginal, threshold, and net effects of financial globalisation on financial development in Africa. Journal of Multinational Financial Management, 40, 103–114. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.mulfin.2017.05.003
Atil, A., Nawaz, K., Lahiani, A., & Roubaud, D. (2020). Are natural resources a blessing or a curse for financial development in Pakistan? The importance of oil prices, economic growth and economic globalization. Resources Policy, 67, 101683. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resourpol.2020.101683
Avcı, P. (2020). Küreselleşme ve finansal küreselleşme: Küreselleşmenin finansal piyasalara etkisi. In M. Öztürk (Ed.), Finansal Dinamikler: Küreselleşme Sürecinde Finansal Gelişmeler ve Etkileri. Ankara: Nobel Akademik Yayıncılık.
Bai, J., & Perron, P. (1998). Estimating and testing linear models with multiple structural changes. Econometrica, 66(1), 47–78. https://doi.org/10.2307/2998540
Balcilar, M., Gungor, H., & Olasehinde-Williams, G. (2019). On the impact of globalization on financial development: A multi-country panel study. European Journal of Sustainable Development, 8(1), 350. https://doi.org/10.14207/ejsd.2019.v8n1p350
Bittencourt, M. (2011). Inflation and financial development: Evidence from Brazil. Economic Modelling, 28(1), 91–99. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2010.09.021
Çevik, E. İ., Atukeren, E., & Korkmaz, T. (2019). Trade openness and economic growth in turkey: A rolling frequency domain analysis. Economies, 7(2), 1–16. https://doi.org/10.3390/economies7020041
Chen, L., Felipe, J., Kam, A. J. Y., & Mehta, A. (2021). Is employment globalizing? Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 56, 74–92. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.strueco.2020.09.003
Chen, Z. M., & Chen, G. Q. (2011). An overview of energy consumption of the globalized world economy. Energy Policy, 39(10), 5920–5928. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2011.06.046
Egger, H., & Fischer, C. (2020). Increasing resistance to globalization: The role of trade in tasks. European Economic Review, 126, 103446. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2020.103446
Engle, R. F., & Granger, C. W. (1987). Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 55(2), 251–276. https://doi.org/10.2307/1913236
Faisal, F., Sulaiman, Y., & Tursoy, T. (2019). Does an asymmetric nexus exist between financial deepening and natural resources for emerging economy? Evidence from multiple break cointegration test. Resources Policy, 64, 101512. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resourpol.2019.101512
García, E. D. T. (2012). Financial globalization and financial development in Transition countries. Economía: Teoría Práctica, 36, 155–178. https://doi.org/10.24275/ETYPUAM/NE/362012/Tovar
Ghosh, A. (2017). How does banking sector globalization affect economic growth? International Review of Economics & Finance, 48, 83–97. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.iref.2016.11.011
Gregory, A. W., & Hansen, B. E. (1996). Residual-based tests for cointegration in models with regime shifts. Journal of Econometrics, 70(1), 99–126. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-4076(69)41685-7
Guan, J., Kirikkaleli, D., Bibi, A., & Zhang, W. (2020). Natural resources rents nexus with financial development in the presence of globalization: Is the “resource curse” exist or myth? Resources Policy, 66, 101641. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resourpol.2020.101641
Gygli, S., Haelg, F., Potrafke, N., & Sturm, J.-E. (2019). The KOF Globalisation Index – revisited. The Review of International Organizations, 14(3), 543–574. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11558-019-09344-2
Hacker, R. S., & Hatemi-J, A. (2008). Tests for causality between integrated variables using asymptotic and bootstrap distributions: Theory and application. Applied Economics, 38(13), 1489–1500. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036840500405763
Harris, E. (1999). Impact of the Asian crisis on Sub-Saharan Africa. Finance and Development, 36(1), 14–17.
Haseeb, A., Xia, E., Danish, Baloch, M. A., & Abbas, K. (2018). Financial development, globalization, and CO2 emission in the presence of EKC: Evidence from BRICS countries. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 25(31), 31283–31296. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-018-3034-7
Hatemi-J, A. (2008). Tests for cointegration with two unknown regime shifts with an application to financial market integration. Empirical Economics, 35(3), 497–505. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00181-007-0175-9
Häusler, G. (2002). The globalization of finance. Finance and Development, 39(1), 10–12.
Helhel, Y. (2017). Küreselleşme ve finansal gelişme arasindaki etkileşimin Türkiye ve BRICS ülkeleri için incelenmesi. Mehmet Akif Ersoy Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 9(20), 158–178. https://doi.org/10.20875/makusobed.293046
Law, S. H., Tan, H. B., & Azman-Saini, W. N. W. (2015). Globalisation, institutional reforms and financial development in East Asian economies. The World Economy, 38(2), 379–398. https://doi.org/10.1111/twec.12168
Li, J., Lu, Y., Song, H., & Xie, H. (2019). Long-term impact of trade liberalization on human capital formation. Journal of Comparative Economics, 47(4), 946–961. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jce.2019.08.002
Mishkin, F. S. (2009). Globalization and financial development. Journal of Development Economics, 89(2), 164–169. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2007.11.004
Muye, I. M., & Muye, I. Y. (2017). Testing for causality among globalization, institution and financial development: Further evidence from three economic blocs. Borsa Istanbul Review, 17(2), 117–132. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.bir.2016.10.001
Narayan, P. K. (2005). The saving and investment nexus for China: Evidence from cointegration tests. Applied Economics, 37(17), 1979–1990. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036840500278103
Nasreen, S., Mahalik, M. K., Shahbaz, M., & Abbas, Q. (2020). How do financial globalization, institutions and economic growth impact financial sector development in European countries? Research in International Business and Finance, 54, 101247. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ribaf.2020.101247
Ng, S., & Perron, P. (2001). LAG length selection and the construction of unit root tests with good size and power. Econometrica, 69(6), 1519–1554. https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-0262.00256
Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y., & Smith, R. J. (2001). Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16(3), 289–326. https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.616
Phillips, P. C. B. (1987). Time series regression with a unit root. Econometrica, 55(2), 277–301. https://doi.org/10.2307/1913237
Phuc Canh, N., & Trung Thong, N. (2020). Nexus between financialisation and natural resources rents: Empirical evidence in a global sample. Resources Policy, 66, 101590. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resourpol.2020.101590
Quixina, Y., & Almeida, A. (2014). Financial development and economic growth in a natural resource based economy: Evidence from Angola (FEP Working Papers No. 542).
Rajan, R. G., & Zingales, L. (2003). The great reversals: The politics of financial development in the twentieth century. Journal of Financial Economics, 69(1), 5–50. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-405X(03)00125-9
Satti, S. L., Shahbaz, M., Mujahid, N., & Ali, A. (2013). Impact of financial development and globalization on inflation: The role of remittance and economic growth in Bangladesh (MPRA Paper No. 51675).
Saud, S., Chen, S., Haseeb, A., & Sumayya. (2020). The role of financial development and globalization in the environment: Accounting ecological footprint indicators for selected one-belt-one-road initiative countries. Journal of Cleaner Production, 250, 119518. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2019.119518
Sethi, P., Chakrabarti, D., & Bhattacharjee, S. (2020). Globalization, financial development and economic growth: Perils on the environmental sustainability of an emerging economy. Journal of Policy Modeling, 42(3), 520–535. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpolmod.2020.01.007
Shahbaz, M., Mallick, H., Mahalik, M. K., & Hammoudeh, S. (2018). Is globalization detrimental to financial development? Further evidence from a very large emerging economy with significant orientation towards policies. Applied Economics, 50(6), 574–595. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2017.1324615
Shahbaz, M., Naeem, M., Ahad, M., & Tahir, I. (2018). Is natural resource abundance a stimulus for financial development in the USA? Resources Policy, 55, 223–232. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resourpol.2017.12.006
Song, C.-Q., Chang, C.-P., & Gong, Q. (2021). Economic growth, corruption, and financial development: Global evidence. Economic Modelling, 94, 822–830. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2020.02.022
Stock, J., & Watson, M. (1999). A comparison of linear and nonlinear univariate models for forecasting macroeconomic time series. In R. Engle & H. White (Eds.), Cointegration, Causality and Forecasting: A Festschrift for Clive W.J. Granger (pp. 1–44). Oxford: Oxford University Press. Retrieved from http://www.economics.harvard.edu/faculty/stock/files/Granger_Festshrift_StockandWatson.pdf
Tornell, A., Westermann, F., & Martínez, L. (2004). The positive link between financial liberalization, growth and crises (NBER Working Paper No. 10293). Massachusetts.
U.S. Department of State. (2020). 2020 investment climate statements: Turkey. Ankara. Retrieved from https://www.state.gov/reports/2020-investment-climate-statements/turkey/
Uygur, E. (2010). The global crisis and the Turkish Economy (Turkish Economic Association Discussion Paper No. 2010/3).
World Bank. (2020). World Development Indicators (2020). Washington. Retrieved from https://databank.worldbank.org/source/world-development-indicators
Yang, F. (2019). The impact of financial development on economic growth in middle-income countries. Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, 59, 74–89. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.intfin.2018.11.008
Zaidi, S. A. H., Wei, Z., Gedikli, A., Zafar, M. W., Hou, F., & Iftikhar, Y. (2019). The impact of globalization, natural resources abundance, and human capital on financial development: Evidence from thirty-one OECD countries. Resources Policy, 64, 101476. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resourpol.2019.101476
Zaidi, S. A. H., Zafar, M. W., Shahbaz, M., & Hou, F. (2019). Dynamic linkages between globalization, financial development and carbon emissions: Evidence from Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation countries. Journal of Cleaner Production, 228, 533–543. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2019.04.210