Main Article Content

Abstract

Purpose ― The present study investigates the asymmetric effect of exchange rate changes on the domestic production of selected South Asian economies from 1980-2019.


Design/Method/Approach―The study introduces nonlinearity into the adjustment process by decomposing the exchange rate into depreciation and appreciation and relying on the Nonlinear ARDL approach to cointegration.


Findings ― The findings show significant evidence of asymmetric effects of exchange rate changes on domestic production in the case of South Asian economies. Surprisingly, depreciation promotes economic growth while appreciation impedes it in almost all economies.


Practical Implications ― The findings refute the notion of symmetry, indicating that depreciation and appreciation have different effects on South Asian economies. An undervalued exchange rate may provide short-term economic relief. The study recommends that a market-based equilibrium exchange rate is crucial for these economies.


Originality/Value ― By using a Nonlinear ARDL approach to separate exchange rate appreciation and depreciation, this study adds to the body of knowledge about the relationship between exchange rate and growth, particularly in South Asia.

Keywords

Asymmetric effects exchange rate volatility domestic production Nonlinear ARDL

Article Details

How to Cite
Iqbal, J. ., Nosheen, M., & Wohar, M. (2022). Revisiting the asymmetry between the exchange rate and domestic production in South Asian economies: Evidence from nonlinear ARDL approach. Economic Journal of Emerging Markets, 14(2), 162–175. https://doi.org/10.20885/ejem.vol14.iss2.art2

References

  1. Abbasi, G. A., & Iqbal, D. J. (2021). The asymmetric impact of RER-Misalignment on economic growth: An application of Hodrick–Prescott filter technique. Singapore Economics Review. https://doi.org/10.1142/S0217590821500375
  2. Aguirre, Á., & Calderón, C. (2005). Real exchange rate misalignments and economic performance (Central Bank of Chile Working Papers No. 315) (Vol. 315). Agustinas.
  3. Ahmad, A., Ahmad, N., & Ali, S. (2013). Exchange rate and economic growth in Pakistan (1975-2011). Journal of Basic and Applied Scientific Research, 3(8), 740–746.
  4. Ahmad, N., Hayat, M. F., Luqman, M., & Ullah, S. (2012). The causal links between foreign direct investment and economic growth in Pakistan. European Journal of Business and Economics, 6, 20–211. https://doi.org/10.12955/ejbe.v6i0.137
  5. Akhtar, S., & Malik, F. (2000). Pakistan’s trade performance vis-a-vis its major trading partners. The Pakistan Development Review, 39(1), 37–50. https://doi.org/10.30541/v39i1pp.37-50
  6. Algaeed, A. H., & Algethami, B. S. (2022). Monetary volatility and the dynamics of economic growth: An empirical analysis of an oil-based economy, 1970–2018. OPEC Energy Review. https://doi.org/10.1111/opec.12235
  7. Ali, S. Z., & Anwar, S. (2016). Can exchange rate pass-through explain the price puzzle? Economics Letters, 145, 56–59. Retrieved from 10.1016/j.econlet.2016.05.023
  8. An, P. T. H., Binh, N. T., & Cam, H. L. N. (2020). The impact of exchange rate on economic growth case studies of countries in the ASEAN region. Global Journal of Management and Business Research, 9(7), 965–970.
  9. Ayubu, V. (2013). Monetary policy and inflation dynamics: An empirical case study of the Tanzanian economy. Master’s Program in Economics, Umea Universitet.
  10. Bahmani-Oskooee, M., & Aftab, M. (2017). On the asymmetric effects of exchange rate volatility on trade flows: New evidence from US-Malaysia trade at the industry level. Economic Modelling, 63, 86–103. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2017.02.004
  11. Bahmani-Oskooee, M., & Bahmani, S. (2015). Nonlinear ARDL approach and the demand for money in Iran. Economics Bulletin, 35(1), 381–391.
  12. Bahmani-Oskooee, M., & Fariditavana, H. (2015). Nonlinear ARDL approach, asymmetric effects, and the J-curve. Journal of Economic Studies, 42(3), 519–530. https://doi.org/10.1108/JES-03-2015-0042
  13. Bahmani-Oskooee, M., & Hajilee, M. (2010). On the relation between currency depreciation and domestic investment. Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, 32(4), 645–660. https://doi.org/10.2753/PKE0160-3477320409
  14. Bahmani-Oskooee, M., Halicioglu, F., & Mohammadian, A. (2018). On the asymmetric effects of exchange rate changes on domestic production in Turkey. Economic Change and Restructuring, 51(2), 97–112. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10644-017-9201-x
  15. Bahmani-Oskooee, M., Iqbal, J., & Khan, S. U. (2017). Impact of exchange rate volatility on the commodity trade between Pakistan and the US. Economic Change and Restructuring, 50(2), 161–187. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10644-016-9187-9
  16. Bahmani-Oskooee, M., Iqbal, J., & Muzammil, M. (2017). Pakistan-EU commodity trade: Is there evidence of J-curve effect? Global Economy Journal, 17(2), 20160067. https://doi.org/10.1515/gej-2016-0067
  17. Bahmani-Oskooee, M., Iqbal, J., & Nosheen, M. (2016). Commodity trade between Pakistan and the US: Is there evidence of the J-curve? Applied Economics, 48(11), 957–965. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2015.1090552
  18. Bahmani-Oskooee, M., Iqbal, J., & Salam, M. (2016). Short run and long run effects of exchange rate volatility on commodity trade between Pakistan and Japan. Economic Analysis and Policy, 52, 131–142. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eap.2016.09.002
  19. Bahmani-Oskooee, M., & Kandil, M. E. (2007). Exchange rate fluctuations and output in oil-producing countries: The case of Iran. International Monetary Fund, 46(3), 23–45.
  20. Bahmani-Oskooee, M., & Miteza, I. (2006). Are devaluations contractionary? Evidence from panel cointegration. Economic Issues, 11(1), 49–64.
  21. Bahmani-Oskooee, M., & Mohammadian, A. (2017). Asymmetry effects of exchange rate changes on domestic production in Japan. International Review of Applied Economics, 31(6), 774–790. https://doi.org/10.1080/02692171.2017.1324410
  22. Bahmani-Oskooee, M., Nosheen, M., & Iqbal, J. (2017). Third-country exchange rate volatility and Pakistan-US trade at commodity level. The International Trade Journal, 31(2), 105–129. https://doi.org/10.1080/08853908.2016.1269701
  23. Bahmani‐Oskooee, M., & Baek, J. (2020). On the asymmetric effects of the real exchange rate on domestic investment in G7 countries. Australian Economic Papers, 59(4), 303– 318. https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8454.12187
  24. Bahmani‐Oskooee, M., & Mohammadian, A. (2016). Asymmetry effects of exchange rate changes on domestic production: Evidence from nonlinear ARDL approach. Australian Economic Papers, 55(3), 181–191. https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8454.12073
  25. Bank, W. (2017). Global economic prospects, January 2017: Weak investment in uncertain times.
  26. Baron, D. P. (1976). Fluctuating exchange rates and the pricing of exports. Economic Inquiry, 14(3), 425–438. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1465-7295.1976.tb00430.x
  27. Bini-Smaghi, L. (1991). Exchange rate variability and trade: Why is it so difficult to find any empirical relationship? Applied Economics, 23(5), 927–936. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036849100000041
  28. Chishti, M. Z., Iqbal, J., Mahmood, F., & Azeem, H. S. M. (2020). The implication of the oscillations in exchange rate for the commodity-wise trade flows between Pakistan and China: An evidence from ARDL approach. Review of Pacific Basin Financial Markets and Policies, 23(4), 1–33. https://doi.org/10.1142/S0219091520500307
  29. Cushman, D. O. (1983). The effects of real exchange rate risk on international trade. Journal of International Economics, 15(1–2), 45–63. Retrieved from 10.1016/0022-1996(83)90041-7
  30. De Grauwe, P., & Verfaille, G. (1988). Exchange rate variability. In Misalignment of exchange rates: Effects on trade and industry (pp. 77–104). National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. Retrieved from http://www.nber.org/chapters/c8055.pdf
  31. Devarajan, S., & Nabi, I. (2006). Economic growth in South Asia: promising, unequalising. Sustainable?. Economic and Political Weekly, 41(33), 3573–3580.
  32. Dhasmana, A. (2015). Transmission of real exchange rate changes to the manufacturing sector: The role of financial access. International Economics, 143, 48–69. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.inteco.2015.04.006
  33. Dornbusch, R., Krugman, P., & Cooper, R. N. (1976). Flexible exchange rates in the short run (Brookings Papers on Economic Activity No. 3).
  34. Easterly, W., & Levine, R. (1997). Africa’s growth tragedy: Policies and ethnic divisions. The Quarterly Journal of Economic, 112(4), 1203–1250.
  35. Farrington, J., & Clarke, J. (2006). Growth poverty reduction and development assistance in Asia: Options and prospects. Development Policy Review, 24(s1), 13–28.
  36. Fischer, S. (1992). Macroeconomic stability and growth. Cuadernos de Economía, 29(87), 171–186.
  37. Granger, C. W. J., & Yoon, G. (2002). Hidden Cointegration (Department of Economics Discussion Paper No. 2002–02). San Diego. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.313831
  38. Gros, D. (1987). Exchange rate variability and foreign trade in the presence of adjustment costs (Working paper Département des Sciences Economiques No. 2619075–8). Exchange rate variability and foreign trade in the presence of adjustment costs: Louvain-la-Neuve.
  39. Hamid, N., & Mir, A. S. (2017). Exchange rate management and economic. The Lahore Journal of Economics, 22, 73–110.
  40. Hasan, M. A., & Khan, A. H. (1994). Impact of devaluation on Pakistan’s external trade: An econometric approach. The Pakistan Development Review, 33(4), 1205–1215.
  41. Hassan, B. D., Fausat, A. F., & Baba, Y. A. (2016). Impact of monetary policy in Nigeria on inflation, exchange rate and economic growth. International Journal of Economics and Business Management, 2(5), 67–82.
  42. Hatemi-J, A. (2012). Asymmetric causality tests with an application. Empirical Economics, 43(1), 447–456. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00181-011-0484-x
  43. Hooy, C. W., & Choong, C. K. (2010). The impact of exchange rate volatility on world and intra-trade flows of SAARC countries. Indian Economic Review, 45(1), 67–86.
  44. Iqbal, G. A. A. J. (2020). Exchange rate volatility with third-country risk impact: A bilateral analysis of Pakistan with major trading partners. Pakistan Social Sciences Review, 4(IV), 29–46.
  45. Iqbal, J., Aziz, S., & Nosheen, M. (2020). The asymmetric effects of exchange rate volatility on US-Pakistan trade flows: New evidence from nonlinear ARDL approach. Economic Change and Restructuring, 5(1), 225–255. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10644-020-09310-8
  46. Iqbal, J., Aziz, S., & Nosheen, M. (2022). The asymmetric effects of exchange rate volatility on US–Pakistan trade flows: New evidence from nonlinear ARDL approach. Economic Change and Restructuring, 55(1), 225–255. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10644-020-09310-8
  47. Iqbal, J., Khan, S. U., & Nosheen, M. (2019). The J-Curve between Pakistan and the SAARC region: Empirical evidence from aggregated and commodity level trade flows. NUST Journal of Social Sciences and Humanities, 5(2), 177–208. https://doi.org/10.51732/njssh.v5i2.45
  48. Iqbal, J., Nosheen, M., Panezai, G. R., & Salahuddin. (2021). Asymmetric cointegration, Non-linear ARDL, and the J-curve: A bilateral analysis of Pakistan and its trading partners. International Journal of Finance & Economics, 26(2), 2263–2278. https://doi.org/10.1002/ijfe.1905
  49. Iqbal, J., Nosheen, M., & Rehman Panezai, G. (2021). Asymmetric cointegration, Non‐linear ARDL, and the J‐curve: A bilateral analysis of Pakistan and its trading partners. International Journal of Finance & Economics, 26(2), 2263–2278. https://doi.org/10.1002/ijfe.1905
  50. Iqbal, J., Nosheen, M., Tariq, R., & Manan, S. (2015). Testing for Marshall-Lerner condition: Bilateral trade between Pakistan and its major trading partners. Forman Journal of Economic Studies, 11(1), 1–14.
  51. Javed, Z., & Farooq, M. (2009). Economic growth and exchange rate volatility in the case of Pakistan. Pakistan Journal of Life and Social Sciences, 7(2), 112–118.
  52. Kandil, M. (2008). The asymmetric effects of exchange rate fluctuations on output and prices: Evidence from developing countries. Journal of International Trade and Economic Development, 17(2), 257–296. https://doi.org/10.1080/09638190701872772
  53. Kandil, M., & Mirzaie, I. A. (2008). Comparative analysis of exchange rate appreciation and aggregate economic activity: Theory and evidence from Middle Eastern countries. Bulletin of Economic Research, 60(1), 45–96. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-8586.2007.00272.x
  54. Kappler, M., Reisen, H., Schularick, M., & Turkisch, E. (2013). The macroeconomic effects of large exchange rate appreciations. Open Economies Review, 24(3), 471–494. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11079-012-9246-4
  55. Katrakilidis, C., & Trachanas, E. (2012). What drives housing price dynamics in Greece: New evidence from asymmetric ARDL cointegration. Economic Modelling, 29(4), 1064–1069. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2012.03.029
  56. Khan, M. F. H. (2021). Impact of exchange rate on economic growth of Bangladesh. European Journal of Business and Management Research, 6(3), 173–175. https://doi.org/10.24018/ejbmr.2021.6.3.891
  57. Khan, S. R. (1995). Devaluation and balance of trade in Pakistan: A policy analysis (Research Report Series No. 7). April: Paper presented at the Eleventh Annual General Meeting and Conference of Pakistan Society of Development Economists.
  58. Knight, M., Loayza, N., & Villanueva, D. (1993). Testing the neoclassical theory of economic growth: A panel data approach. Staff Papers (International Monetary Fund), 40(3), 512–541. https://doi.org/10.2307/3867446
  59. Kohler, M., Manalo, J., & Perera, D. (2014). Exchange rate movements and economic activity (Reserve Bank of Australia).
  60. Masih, J., Liu, D., & Pervaiz, J. (2018). The relationship between RMB exchange rate and Chinese trade balance: Evidence from a bootstrap rolling window approach. International Journal of Economics and Finance, 10(2), 35–47. https://doi.org/10.5539/ijef.v10n2p35
  61. Matthew, O. A., Ede, C., Osabohien, R., Ejemeyovwi, J., Ayanda, T., & Okunbor, J. (2021). Interaction effect of tourism and foreign exchange earnings on economic growth in Nigeria. Global Business Review, 22(1), 7–22. https://doi.org/10.1177/0972150918812985
  62. Most, S. J., & De Berg, H. V. (1996). Growth in Africa: Does the source of investment financing matter? Applied Economics, 28(11), 1427–1433. https://doi.org/10.1080/000368496327697
  63. Najibullah, Iqbal, J., & Nosheen, M. (2021). Exploring the asymmetries between trade and consumption-based carbon emissions: Evidence from NPARDL approach. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 28(31), 41780–41793. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-021-13455-y
  64. Najibullah, Iqbal, J., Nosheen, M., Khan, M. W., Raja, E. U. H., & Jasim, M. (2021). An asymmetric analysis of the role of exports and imports in consumption-based carbon emissions in the G7 economies: Evidence from nonlinear panel autoregressive distributed lag model. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 28(38), 53804–53818. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-021-14465-6
  65. Nawaz, M. (2012). The impact of exchange rate on output level: Bounds testing approach for Pakistan. The Pakistan Development Review, 51(4), 419–433.
  66. Nawaz, M., & Ghani, E. (2018). Currency depreciation and output nexus: Evidence from Pakistan. Panoeconomicus, 65(2), 183–200. Retrieved from 10.2298/PAN151222027N
  67. Nusair, S. A. (2017). The J-curve phenomenon in European transition economies: A nonlinear ARDL approach. International Review of Applied Economics, 31(1), 1–27. https://doi.org/10.1080/02692171.2016.1214109
  68. Olaniyi, C. (2019). Asymmetric information phenomenon in the link between CEO pay and firm performance. Journal of Economic Studies, 46(2), 306–323. https://doi.org/10.1108/JES-11-2017-0319
  69. Rahman, S., & Serletis, A. (2009). The effects of exchange rate uncertainty on exports. Journal of Macroeconomics, 31(3), 500–507. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmacro.2008.12.005
  70. Shahbaz, M., Islam, F., & Aamir, N. (2012). Is devaluation contractionary? Empirical evidence for Pakistan. Economic Change and Restructuring, 45(4), 299–316.
  71. Shin, Y., Yu, B., & Greenwood-Nimmo, M. (2014). Modelling asymmetric cointegration and dynamic multipliers in a nonlinear ARDL Framework. In R. Sickles & W. Horrace (Eds.), Festschrift in Honor of Peter Schmidt (pp. 281–314). New York: Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4899-8008-3_9
  72. Yang, J. (1997). Exchange rate pass-through in US manufacturing industries. Review of Economics and Statistics, 79(1), 95–104. https://doi.org/10.1162/003465397556430