Main Article Content
Abstract
Purpose ― This study investigates the effect of trade openness on inflation, referred to as the Romer hypothesis, for Newly Industrialized Countries (NICs) from 1990 to 2022.
Methods ― It uses a panel ARDL method and the Dumitrescu-Hurlin (2012) causality test. Economic growth, credit, and money supply are included in the model as independent variables.
Findings ― The findings reveal no statistically significant long-term and short-term relationships between trade openness and inflation. However, money supply has statistically significant positive effects on inflation in the long run, while economic growth and credit exhibit no statistically significant impact. In the short run, money supply and economic growth reduced inflation. According to the Dumitrescu-Hurlin (2012) panel causality test, a bidirectional relationship exists between inflation and economic growth, money supply, and credit, while a unidirectional relationship is observed between inflation and trade openness.
Implications ― Reducing the external dependency of sectors that rely on imported inputs is necessary to mitigate the adverse effects of trade openness on inflation in NICs. It is crucial to ensure that monetary policy helps align money supply and credit expansions with real sector trends.
Originality ― This research is pioneering in its focus on testing the Romer hypothesis for Newly Industrialized Countries (NICs).
Keywords
Article Details
Copyright (c) 2024 Hüseyin Çelik, Nigar Alev, Muhyettin Erdemli
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References
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- Ali, A. K., & Asfaw, D. M. (2023). Nexus between Inflation, Income Inequality, and Economic Growth in Ethiopia. PLoS ONE, 18(11 November). https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0294454
- Ali, A., Khokhar, B., & Sulehri, F. A. (2023). Financial Dimensions of Inflationary Pressure in Developing Countries: An In-depth Analysis of Policy Mix. Journal of Asian Development Studies, 12(3). https://doi.org/10.62345/jads.2023.12.3.103
- Aliyev, K., & Gasimov, I. (2014). Openness-Inflation Nexus in South Caucasus Economies. MPRA Paper. https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/62761.html
- Atgür, M. (2021). Türkiye’de Ticari Açıklık ve Enflasyon İlişkisi: Romer Hipotezi Türkiye’de Geçerli midir? Çukurova Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 30(1), 45–57. https://doi.org/10.35379/CUSOSBIL.759390
- Binici, M., Cheung, Y. W., & Lai, K. S. (2012). Trade Openness, Market Competition, and Inflation: Some Sectoral Evidence from OECD Countries. Working Papers. https://ideas.repec.org/p/tcb/wpaper/1206.html
- Bošnjak, M., Novak, I., & Bašić, M. (2022). Openness and Inflation Nexus: The Case of European Post-Transition Countries. FEB Zagreb 13th International Odyssey Conference on Economics and Business.
- Ceyhan, T., Gülcan, N., & Gürsoy, S. (2023). Analysis of the Relationship Between Trade Openness and Inflation: Evidence from MIKTA Countries. Journal of Economics Business and Political Researches, 8(21), 327–338. https://doi.org/10.25204/IKTISAD.1144240
- Chimobi, O. P. (2010). Causality between Money and Inflation in the Nigerian Economy. International Journal of Economic Perspectives, 4(1), 363–370. http://www.econ-society.org
- Christian, M. N. (2023). Determinants of Inflation in the Democratic Republic of Congo: An Application of ARDL Modelling. International Journal of Economics, Business and Management Research, 07(07), 251–262. https://doi.org/10.51505/ijebmr.2023.7718
- Çoban, M. N. (2020). Romer Hipotezi Kapsamında Ticari Dışa Açıklık ve Enflasyon İlişkisi: Next 11 Ülkeleri İçin Panel ARDL Analizi. Gümüşhane Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 11(3), 651–660. https://doi.org/10.36362/GUMUS.647844
- Doğan, Ö. (2023). Enflasyon Muhasebesi ile İlgili Yasal Düzenlemelerin Finansal Raporlama Çerçeveleri Kapsamında Karşılaştırmalı Değerlendirilmesi. Malatya Turgut Özal Üniversitesi İşletme ve Yönetim Bilimleri Dergisi, 4(2), 190–209. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/379054785
- Dumitrescu, E. I., & Hurlin, C. (2012). Testing for Granger Non-causality in Heterogeneous Panels. Economic Modelling, 29(4), 1450–1460. https://doi.org/10.1016/J.ECONMOD.2012.02.014
- Eltejaei, E., & Shoorekchali, J. M. (2021). Investigating the Relationship between Money Growth and Inflation in Türkiye: A Nonlinear Causality Approach. Journal of Money and Economy, 16(3), 305–322. https://doi.org/10.29252/jme.16.3.305
- Evans, R. W. (2007). Is Openness Inflationary? Imperfect Competition and Monetary Market Power. Globalization Institute Working Papers. https://ideas.repec.org/p/fip/feddgw/01.html
- Girdzijauskas, S., Streimikiene, D., Griesiene, I., Mikalauskiene, A., & Kyriakopoulos, G. L. (2022). New Approach to Inflation Phenomena to Ensure Sustainable Economic Growth. Sustainability, 14(1) 518. https://doi.org/10.3390/SU14010518
- Gokal, V., & Hanif, S. (2004). Relationship Between Inflation and Economic Growth (4).
- Hamidi, A., Alvin, S. P. (2022). Romer’s Hypothesis Validation and Threshold of Trade Openness in ASEAN. Buletin Ekonomika Pembangunan, 3(1). https://doi.org/10.21107/BEP.V3I1.18500
- Kaukab, M. E., & Anggara, A. A. (2024). Does Trade Openness and Inflation Rate Have Dynamic Interconnected Patterns? An Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Model Co-integration Approach. Journal of Economics, Finance and Management (JEFM), 3(1), 181–193. https://doi.org/10.5281/ZENODO.10702368
- Khan, M., & Hanif, W. (2020). Institutional Quality and The Relationship Between Inflation and Economic Growth. Empirical Economics, 58(2), 627–649. https://doi.org/10.1007/S00181-018-1479-7/TABLES/4
- Kónya, L. (2006). Exports and growth: Granger causality analysis on OECD countries with a panel data approach. Economic Modelling, 23(6), 978-992. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2006.04.008
- Korkmaz, S. (2015). Impact of Bank Credits on Economic Growth and Inflation. Journal of Applied Finance & Banking, 5(1), 57–69.
- Lin, F., Mei, D., Wang, H., & Yao, X. (2017). Romer was Right on Openness and Inflation: Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa. Journal of Applied Economics, 20(1), 121–140. https://doi.org/10.1016/S1514-0326(17)30006-5
- Munir, M., Tufail, S., & Ahmed, M. (2023). Revisiting The Romer’s Hypothesis and Openness and Inflation Relationship for Pakistan. Gomal University Journal of Research, 39(01), 91–104. https://doi.org/10.51380/gujr-39-01-09
- Munir, S., & Kiani, A. K. (2011). Relationship Between Trade Openness and Inflation: Empirical Evidences from Pakistan (1976–2010). The Pakistan Development Review, 50(4), 853–876. https://ideas.repec.org/a/pid/journl/v50y2011i4p853-876.html
- Nasrat, M. N. (2020). The Impact of Trade Openness on Inflation: Evidence from Six South Asian Countries from 1980 to 2016. Journal of Emerging Technologies and Innovative Research (JETIR), 7(4), 165-178. https://www.academia.edu/42623842/Issue_4_www_jetir_org_ISSN_2349_5162
- Nguyen, V. M. H., Ho, T. H., Nguyen, L. H., & Pham, A. T. H. (2023). The Impact of Trade Openness on Economic Stability in Asian Countries. Sustainability, 15(11736), 1–20. https://doi.org/10.3390/SU151511736
- Pesaran, M. H. (2004). General Diagnostic Tests for Cross Section Dependence in Panels. IZA Discussion Paper, 1240, 1–39. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00181-020-01875-7
- Pesaran, M. H. (2007). A Simple Panel Unit Root Test in the Presence of Cross-Section Dependence. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 22(2), 265–312. https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.951
- Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y., & Smith, R. P. (1999). Pooled Mean Group Estimation of Dynamic Heterogeneous Panels. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 94(446), 621. https://doi.org/10.2307/2670182
- Pham, B. T., & Sala, H. (2022). Cross-country Connectedness in Inflation and Unemployment: Measurement and Macroeconomic Consequences. Empirical Economics, 62(3), 1123–1146. https://doi.org/10.1007/S00181-021-02052-0/FIGURES/7
- Rajagopal, Dr. (2007). Trade Openness and Economic Growth in Latin American Countries. SSRN Electronic Journal. https://doi.org/10.2139/SSRN.988801
- Rogoff, K. (2003). Globalization and Global Disinflation. Economic Review, 88(4), 45–80. https://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/document?repid=rep1&type=pdf&doi=26ff010c1822c527986543a7923986e94fa30891
- Romer, D. (1993). Openness and Inflation: Theory and Evidence. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 108(4), 869–903. https://doi.org/10.2307/2118453
- Salamai, Dr. A. A., Faisal, Dr. S. M., & Khan, Dr. A. K. (2022). The Relationship Between Inflation and GDP with Reference to Oil Based Economy. International Journal of Multidisciplinary Research and Growth Evaluation, 375–380. https://doi.org/10.54660/anfo.2022.3.1.21
- Salimifar, M., Razmi, M. J., & Taghizadegan, Z. (2015). A Survey of The Effect of Trade Openness Size on Inflation Rate in Iran Using ARDL. Theoretical and Applied Economics, XXII(3(604), Autumn), 143–154. https://ideas.repec.org/a/agr/journl/vxxiiy2015i3(604)p143-154.html
- Salisu, A. A., & Isah, K. O. (2017). Revisiting the Oil Price and Stock Market Nexus: A Nonlinear Panel ARDL Approach. Economic Modelling, 66, 258–271. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2017.07.010
- Samimi, J. A., Ghaderi, S., Hosseinzadeh, R., & Nademi, Y. (2012). Openness and Inflation: New Empirical Panel Data Evidence. Economics Letters, 117(3), 573–577. https://doi.org/10.1016/J.ECONLET.2012.07.028
- Sepehrivand, A., & Azizi, J. (2016). The Effect of Trade Openness on Inflation in D-8 Member Countries with an Emphasis on Romer Theory. Asian Journal of Economic Modelling, 4(4), 162–167. https://doi.org/10.18488/JOURNAL.8/2016.4.4/8.4.162.167
- Şimşek, D., & Hepaktan, C. E. (2019). Ticari Açıklık, İstihdam ve Enflasyon İlişkisi: Türkiye Örneği. Manisa Celal Bayar Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 17(4), 316–336. https://doi.org/10.18026/CBAYARSOS.585776
- Sintos, A. (2023). Does Inflation Worsen Income Inequality? A Meta-analysis. Economic Systems, 47(4), 101146. https://doi.org/10.1016/J.ECOSYS.2023.101146
- Terra, C. T. (1998). Openness and Inflation: A New Assessment. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 113(2), 641–648. https://doi.org/10.1162/003355398555603/2/113-2-641.PDF.GIF
- Uddin, I., & Rahman, K. U. (2023). Impact of Corruption, Unemployment and Inflation on Economic Growth Evidence from Developing Countries. Quality and Quantity, 57(3), 2759–2779. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11135-022-01481-y
- Valogo, M. K., Duodu, E., Yusif, H., & Baidoo, S. T. (2023). Effect of exchange rate on inflation in the inflation targeting framework: Is the threshold level relevant? Research in Globalization, 6. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resglo.2023.100119
- Van, D. D. (2020). Money Supply and Inflation Impact on Economic Growth. Journal of Financial Economic Policy, 12(1), 121–136. https://doi.org/10.1108/JFEP-10-2018-0152
- Warsame, Z. A., Hassan, A. M., & Hassan, A. Y. (2023). Determinants of Inflation in Somalia: An ARDL Approach. International Journal of Sustainable Development and Planning, 18(9), 2811–2817. https://doi.org/10.18280/ijsdp.180919
- Yılmaz, H. A. (2024). The Asymmetric Impacts of Economic, Social, and Political Globalization on Inflation. Journal of Economic Policy Researches, 11(1), 63–74. https://doi.org/10.26650/JEPR1349411
References
Akinbobola, T. O. (2012). The Dynamics of Money Supply, Exchange Rate and Inflation in Nigeria. Journal of Applied Finance & Banking, 2(4), 117–141.
Ali, A. K., & Asfaw, D. M. (2023). Nexus between Inflation, Income Inequality, and Economic Growth in Ethiopia. PLoS ONE, 18(11 November). https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0294454
Ali, A., Khokhar, B., & Sulehri, F. A. (2023). Financial Dimensions of Inflationary Pressure in Developing Countries: An In-depth Analysis of Policy Mix. Journal of Asian Development Studies, 12(3). https://doi.org/10.62345/jads.2023.12.3.103
Aliyev, K., & Gasimov, I. (2014). Openness-Inflation Nexus in South Caucasus Economies. MPRA Paper. https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/62761.html
Atgür, M. (2021). Türkiye’de Ticari Açıklık ve Enflasyon İlişkisi: Romer Hipotezi Türkiye’de Geçerli midir? Çukurova Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 30(1), 45–57. https://doi.org/10.35379/CUSOSBIL.759390
Binici, M., Cheung, Y. W., & Lai, K. S. (2012). Trade Openness, Market Competition, and Inflation: Some Sectoral Evidence from OECD Countries. Working Papers. https://ideas.repec.org/p/tcb/wpaper/1206.html
Bošnjak, M., Novak, I., & Bašić, M. (2022). Openness and Inflation Nexus: The Case of European Post-Transition Countries. FEB Zagreb 13th International Odyssey Conference on Economics and Business.
Ceyhan, T., Gülcan, N., & Gürsoy, S. (2023). Analysis of the Relationship Between Trade Openness and Inflation: Evidence from MIKTA Countries. Journal of Economics Business and Political Researches, 8(21), 327–338. https://doi.org/10.25204/IKTISAD.1144240
Chimobi, O. P. (2010). Causality between Money and Inflation in the Nigerian Economy. International Journal of Economic Perspectives, 4(1), 363–370. http://www.econ-society.org
Christian, M. N. (2023). Determinants of Inflation in the Democratic Republic of Congo: An Application of ARDL Modelling. International Journal of Economics, Business and Management Research, 07(07), 251–262. https://doi.org/10.51505/ijebmr.2023.7718
Çoban, M. N. (2020). Romer Hipotezi Kapsamında Ticari Dışa Açıklık ve Enflasyon İlişkisi: Next 11 Ülkeleri İçin Panel ARDL Analizi. Gümüşhane Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 11(3), 651–660. https://doi.org/10.36362/GUMUS.647844
Doğan, Ö. (2023). Enflasyon Muhasebesi ile İlgili Yasal Düzenlemelerin Finansal Raporlama Çerçeveleri Kapsamında Karşılaştırmalı Değerlendirilmesi. Malatya Turgut Özal Üniversitesi İşletme ve Yönetim Bilimleri Dergisi, 4(2), 190–209. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/379054785
Dumitrescu, E. I., & Hurlin, C. (2012). Testing for Granger Non-causality in Heterogeneous Panels. Economic Modelling, 29(4), 1450–1460. https://doi.org/10.1016/J.ECONMOD.2012.02.014
Eltejaei, E., & Shoorekchali, J. M. (2021). Investigating the Relationship between Money Growth and Inflation in Türkiye: A Nonlinear Causality Approach. Journal of Money and Economy, 16(3), 305–322. https://doi.org/10.29252/jme.16.3.305
Evans, R. W. (2007). Is Openness Inflationary? Imperfect Competition and Monetary Market Power. Globalization Institute Working Papers. https://ideas.repec.org/p/fip/feddgw/01.html
Girdzijauskas, S., Streimikiene, D., Griesiene, I., Mikalauskiene, A., & Kyriakopoulos, G. L. (2022). New Approach to Inflation Phenomena to Ensure Sustainable Economic Growth. Sustainability, 14(1) 518. https://doi.org/10.3390/SU14010518
Gokal, V., & Hanif, S. (2004). Relationship Between Inflation and Economic Growth (4).
Hamidi, A., Alvin, S. P. (2022). Romer’s Hypothesis Validation and Threshold of Trade Openness in ASEAN. Buletin Ekonomika Pembangunan, 3(1). https://doi.org/10.21107/BEP.V3I1.18500
Kaukab, M. E., & Anggara, A. A. (2024). Does Trade Openness and Inflation Rate Have Dynamic Interconnected Patterns? An Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Model Co-integration Approach. Journal of Economics, Finance and Management (JEFM), 3(1), 181–193. https://doi.org/10.5281/ZENODO.10702368
Khan, M., & Hanif, W. (2020). Institutional Quality and The Relationship Between Inflation and Economic Growth. Empirical Economics, 58(2), 627–649. https://doi.org/10.1007/S00181-018-1479-7/TABLES/4
Kónya, L. (2006). Exports and growth: Granger causality analysis on OECD countries with a panel data approach. Economic Modelling, 23(6), 978-992. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2006.04.008
Korkmaz, S. (2015). Impact of Bank Credits on Economic Growth and Inflation. Journal of Applied Finance & Banking, 5(1), 57–69.
Lin, F., Mei, D., Wang, H., & Yao, X. (2017). Romer was Right on Openness and Inflation: Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa. Journal of Applied Economics, 20(1), 121–140. https://doi.org/10.1016/S1514-0326(17)30006-5
Munir, M., Tufail, S., & Ahmed, M. (2023). Revisiting The Romer’s Hypothesis and Openness and Inflation Relationship for Pakistan. Gomal University Journal of Research, 39(01), 91–104. https://doi.org/10.51380/gujr-39-01-09
Munir, S., & Kiani, A. K. (2011). Relationship Between Trade Openness and Inflation: Empirical Evidences from Pakistan (1976–2010). The Pakistan Development Review, 50(4), 853–876. https://ideas.repec.org/a/pid/journl/v50y2011i4p853-876.html
Nasrat, M. N. (2020). The Impact of Trade Openness on Inflation: Evidence from Six South Asian Countries from 1980 to 2016. Journal of Emerging Technologies and Innovative Research (JETIR), 7(4), 165-178. https://www.academia.edu/42623842/Issue_4_www_jetir_org_ISSN_2349_5162
Nguyen, V. M. H., Ho, T. H., Nguyen, L. H., & Pham, A. T. H. (2023). The Impact of Trade Openness on Economic Stability in Asian Countries. Sustainability, 15(11736), 1–20. https://doi.org/10.3390/SU151511736
Pesaran, M. H. (2004). General Diagnostic Tests for Cross Section Dependence in Panels. IZA Discussion Paper, 1240, 1–39. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00181-020-01875-7
Pesaran, M. H. (2007). A Simple Panel Unit Root Test in the Presence of Cross-Section Dependence. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 22(2), 265–312. https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.951
Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y., & Smith, R. P. (1999). Pooled Mean Group Estimation of Dynamic Heterogeneous Panels. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 94(446), 621. https://doi.org/10.2307/2670182
Pham, B. T., & Sala, H. (2022). Cross-country Connectedness in Inflation and Unemployment: Measurement and Macroeconomic Consequences. Empirical Economics, 62(3), 1123–1146. https://doi.org/10.1007/S00181-021-02052-0/FIGURES/7
Rajagopal, Dr. (2007). Trade Openness and Economic Growth in Latin American Countries. SSRN Electronic Journal. https://doi.org/10.2139/SSRN.988801
Rogoff, K. (2003). Globalization and Global Disinflation. Economic Review, 88(4), 45–80. https://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/document?repid=rep1&type=pdf&doi=26ff010c1822c527986543a7923986e94fa30891
Romer, D. (1993). Openness and Inflation: Theory and Evidence. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 108(4), 869–903. https://doi.org/10.2307/2118453
Salamai, Dr. A. A., Faisal, Dr. S. M., & Khan, Dr. A. K. (2022). The Relationship Between Inflation and GDP with Reference to Oil Based Economy. International Journal of Multidisciplinary Research and Growth Evaluation, 375–380. https://doi.org/10.54660/anfo.2022.3.1.21
Salimifar, M., Razmi, M. J., & Taghizadegan, Z. (2015). A Survey of The Effect of Trade Openness Size on Inflation Rate in Iran Using ARDL. Theoretical and Applied Economics, XXII(3(604), Autumn), 143–154. https://ideas.repec.org/a/agr/journl/vxxiiy2015i3(604)p143-154.html
Salisu, A. A., & Isah, K. O. (2017). Revisiting the Oil Price and Stock Market Nexus: A Nonlinear Panel ARDL Approach. Economic Modelling, 66, 258–271. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2017.07.010
Samimi, J. A., Ghaderi, S., Hosseinzadeh, R., & Nademi, Y. (2012). Openness and Inflation: New Empirical Panel Data Evidence. Economics Letters, 117(3), 573–577. https://doi.org/10.1016/J.ECONLET.2012.07.028
Sepehrivand, A., & Azizi, J. (2016). The Effect of Trade Openness on Inflation in D-8 Member Countries with an Emphasis on Romer Theory. Asian Journal of Economic Modelling, 4(4), 162–167. https://doi.org/10.18488/JOURNAL.8/2016.4.4/8.4.162.167
Şimşek, D., & Hepaktan, C. E. (2019). Ticari Açıklık, İstihdam ve Enflasyon İlişkisi: Türkiye Örneği. Manisa Celal Bayar Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 17(4), 316–336. https://doi.org/10.18026/CBAYARSOS.585776
Sintos, A. (2023). Does Inflation Worsen Income Inequality? A Meta-analysis. Economic Systems, 47(4), 101146. https://doi.org/10.1016/J.ECOSYS.2023.101146
Terra, C. T. (1998). Openness and Inflation: A New Assessment. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 113(2), 641–648. https://doi.org/10.1162/003355398555603/2/113-2-641.PDF.GIF
Uddin, I., & Rahman, K. U. (2023). Impact of Corruption, Unemployment and Inflation on Economic Growth Evidence from Developing Countries. Quality and Quantity, 57(3), 2759–2779. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11135-022-01481-y
Valogo, M. K., Duodu, E., Yusif, H., & Baidoo, S. T. (2023). Effect of exchange rate on inflation in the inflation targeting framework: Is the threshold level relevant? Research in Globalization, 6. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resglo.2023.100119
Van, D. D. (2020). Money Supply and Inflation Impact on Economic Growth. Journal of Financial Economic Policy, 12(1), 121–136. https://doi.org/10.1108/JFEP-10-2018-0152
Warsame, Z. A., Hassan, A. M., & Hassan, A. Y. (2023). Determinants of Inflation in Somalia: An ARDL Approach. International Journal of Sustainable Development and Planning, 18(9), 2811–2817. https://doi.org/10.18280/ijsdp.180919
Yılmaz, H. A. (2024). The Asymmetric Impacts of Economic, Social, and Political Globalization on Inflation. Journal of Economic Policy Researches, 11(1), 63–74. https://doi.org/10.26650/JEPR1349411