Main Article Content
Abstract
Purpose — This study examines the relationship between savings and economic growth, accounting for the mediating role of financial development across the selected Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) countries.
Methods — Using a panel data set spanning 1986 to 2022, the long-run interaction among the variables is investigated with panel cointegration methods that account for cross-sectional dependence. Moreover, the associated long-run elasticities were estimated using the augmented mean group estimation method. The causal nexus was examined for each country in the sample.
Findings — In addition to the presence of a long-run relationship, the findings revealed that both thrifts and growth have a positive influence on each other in the long run. In addition, bidirectional causality tends to exist between thrifts and growth.
Implication — Since the findings disclose the validity of two mainstream macroeconomic views, policymakers should rely on developing economic policies aiming at fostering thrift and economic growth, which may include support of institutional quality and financial deepening in those economies.
Originality — The originality and added value of the study stem from the development of a new perspective, particularly in the examination of causal relationships. Furthermore, this is one of the primary efforts focused on the RCEP bloc, which has significant potential in terms of trade, finance, thrifts, and economic size in the contemporary world economy.
Keywords
Article Details
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References
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- Agrawal, P. (2001). The relation between savings and growth: cointegration and causality evidence from Asia. Applied Economics, 33(4), 499–513. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036840122210 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/00036840122210
- Anoruo, E., & Ahmad, Y. (2001). Causal relationship between domestic savings and economic growth: evidence from seven African countries. African Development Review, 13(2), 238–249. https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8268.00038 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8268.00038
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- Baharumshah, A. Z., Thanoon, M. A., & Rashid, S. (2003). Saving dynamics in the Asian countries. Journal of Asian Economics, 13(6), 827–845. https://doi.org/10.1016/S1049-0078(02)00187-2 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/S1049-0078(02)00187-2
- Brueckner, M., Kikuchi, T., & Vachadze, G. (2023). Transitional dynamics of the saving rate and economic growth. Macroeconomic Dynamics, 27(2), 482–505. https://doi.org/10.1017/S1365100521000493 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/S1365100521000493
- Chakraborty, D. (2023). Exploring causality between domestic savings and economic growth: fresh panel evidence from BRICS countries. Economic Alternatives, 29(1), 48–69. https://doi.org/10.37075/EA.2023.1.03 DOI: https://doi.org/10.37075/EA.2023.1.03
- Chigozie, O., & Omolade, A. (2021). Savings, investment and economic growth in Nigeria: an autoregressive distributed lag approach. Acta Universitatis Danubius. Œconomica, 17(2). https://dj.univ-danubius.ro/index.php/AUDOE/article/view/875
- Eberhardt, M., & Teal, F. (2010). Productivity analysis in global manufacturing production. University of Oxford.
- Flach, L., Hildenbrand, H.-M., & Teti, F. (2021). The regional comprehensive economic partnership agreement and its expected effects on world trade. Intereconomics, 56(2), 92–98. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10272-021-0960-2 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10272-021-0960-2
- Hundie, S. K. (2014). Savings, investment and economic growth in Ethiopia: Evidence from ARDL approach to co-integration and TYDL Granger-causality tests. Journal of Economics and International Finance, 6(10), 232–248. https://doi.org/10.5897/JEIF2014.0600 DOI: https://doi.org/10.5897/JEIF2014.0600
- Im, K. S., Pesaran, M. H., & Shin, Y. (2003). Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels. Journal of Econometrics, 115(1), 53–47. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-4076(03)00092-7 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-4076(03)00092-7
- Joshi, A., Pradhan, S., & Bist, J. P. (2019). Savings, investment, and growth in Nepal: an empirical analysis. Financial Innovation, 5(1), 39. https://doi.org/10.1186/s40854-019-0154-0 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1186/s40854-019-0154-0
- Jouini, J. (2016). Economic growth and savings in Saudi Arabia: empirical evidence from cointegration and causality analysis. Asia-Pacific Journal of Accounting & Economics, 23(4), 478–495. https://doi.org/10.1080/16081625.2015.1129282 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/16081625.2015.1129282
- Juodis, A., Karavias, Y., & Sarafidis, V. (2021). A homogeneous approach to testing for Granger non-causality in heterogeneous panels. Empirical Economics, 60(1), 93–112. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00181-020-01970-9 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00181-020-01970-9
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- Liu, M., & Ma, Q.-P. (2022). The impact of the saving rate on economic growth in Asian countries. National Accounting Review, 4(4), 412–427. https://doi.org/10.3934/NAR.2022023 DOI: https://doi.org/10.3934/NAR.2022023
- McKinnon, R. (1973). Money and capital in economic development. Brookings Institution Press.
- Nguyen, N. T. K., & Nguyen, H. H. (2017). Impacts of domestic savings on economic growth of Vietnam. Asian Journal of Economic Modelling, 5(3), 245–252. https://doi.org/10.18488/journal.8.2017.53.245.252 DOI: https://doi.org/10.18488/journal.8.2017.53.245.252
- Odhiambo, N. M. (2008). Financial depth, savings and economic growth in Kenya: A dynamic causal linkage. Economic Modelling, 25(4), 704–713. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2007.10.009 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2007.10.009
- Patra, S. K., Murthy, D. S., Babu Kuruva, M., & Mohanty, A. (2017). Revisiting the causal nexus between savings and economic growth in India: An empirical analysis. EconomiA, 18(3), 380–391. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econ.2017.05.001 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econ.2017.05.001
- Pesaran, M. H. (2004). General diagnostic tests for cross-section dependence in panels (1229; CESifo Working Paper). DOI: https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.572504
- Pesaran, M. H. (2007). A simple panel unit root test in the presence of cross‐section dependence. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 22(2), 265–312. https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.951 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.951
- Pesaran, M. H., & Yamagata, T. (2008). Testing slope homogeneity in large panels. Journal of Econometrics, 142(1), 50–93. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2007.05.010 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2007.05.010
- Shaw, E. (1973). Financial deepening in economic development. Oxford University Press.
- Singh, T. (2010). Does domestic saving cause economic growth? A time-series evidence from India. Journal of Policy Modeling, 32(2), 231–253. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpolmod.2009.08.008 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpolmod.2009.08.008
- Smith, L. V., Leybourne, S., Kim, T., & Newbold, P. (2004). More powerful panel data unit root tests with an application to mean reversion in real exchange rates. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 19(2), 147–170. https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.723 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.723
- Sothan, S. (2014). Causal relationship between domestic saving and economic growth: evidence from Cambodia. International Journal of Economics and Finance, 6(9), p213. https://doi.org/10.5539/ijef.v6n9p213 DOI: https://doi.org/10.5539/ijef.v6n9p213
- Šubová, N., Buleca, J., Affuso, E., & Mixon, F. G. (2024). The link between household savings rates and GDP: evidence from the Visegrád group. Post-Communist Economies, 36(2), 197–221. https://doi.org/10.1080/14631377.2023.2262688 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/14631377.2023.2262688
- Tang, C. F. (2009). Does causality technique matter to the savings-growth nexus in Malaysia? Malaysian Management Journal, 13(1&2), 1–10. https://e-journal.uum.edu.my/index.php/mmj/article/view/8957
- Tang, C. F. (2015). How stable is the savings-led growth hypothesis in Malaysia? The bootstrap simulation and recursive causality tests. Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, 9(1), 1–17. https://doi.org/10.1177/0973801014557393 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1177/0973801014557393
- Tang, C. F., & Ch’ng, K. S. (2012). A multivariate analysis of the nexus between savings and economic growth in the ASEAN-5 economies. Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, 6(3), 385–406. https://doi.org/10.1177/097380101200600304 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1177/097380101200600304
- Tang, C. F., & Chua, S. Y. (2012). The savings-growth nexus for the Malaysian economy: a view through rolling sub-samples. Applied Economics, 44(32), 4173–4185. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2011.587784 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2011.587784
- Tang, C. F., & Tan, E. C. (2017). Re-visiting the savings-led growth hypothesis and its stability in east asian economies. International Economic Journal, 31(3), 436–447. https://doi.org/10.1080/10168737.2017.1325386 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/10168737.2017.1325386
- Van Wyk, B. F., & Kapingura, F. M. (2021). Understanding the nexus between savings and economic growth: A South African context. Development Southern Africa, 38(5), 828–844. https://doi.org/10.1080/0376835X.2021.1932424 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/0376835X.2021.1932424
- Westerlund, J. (2007). Testing for error correction in panel data*. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 69(6), 709–748. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0084.2007.00477.x DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0084.2007.00477.x
- Westerlund, J. (2008). Panel cointegration tests of the Fisher effect. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 23(2), 193–233. https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.967 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.967
- World Bank. (2023). World Development Indicators. https://databank.worldbank.org/data/source/world-development-indicators#
- Xiao, J., Karavias, Y., Juodis, A., Sarafidis, V., & Ditzen, J. (2023). Improved tests for Granger noncausality in panel data. The Stata Journal: Promoting Communications on Statistics and Stata, 23(1), 230–242. https://doi.org/10.1177/1536867X231162034 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1177/1536867X231162034
References
Adeleke, A. M. (2014). Saving-growth nexus in an oil-rich exporting country: a case of Nigeria. Management Science and Engineering, 8(3), 72–78. https://doi.org/10.3968/5417
Agrawal, P. (2001). The relation between savings and growth: cointegration and causality evidence from Asia. Applied Economics, 33(4), 499–513. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036840122210 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/00036840122210
Anoruo, E., & Ahmad, Y. (2001). Causal relationship between domestic savings and economic growth: evidence from seven African countries. African Development Review, 13(2), 238–249. https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8268.00038 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8268.00038
Athukorala, P.-C., & Suanin, W. (2024). Saving transition in Asia. The Journal of Development Studies, 60(8), 1211–1226. https://doi.org/10.1080/00220388.2024.2328033 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/00220388.2024.2328033
Baharumshah, A. Z., Thanoon, M. A., & Rashid, S. (2003). Saving dynamics in the Asian countries. Journal of Asian Economics, 13(6), 827–845. https://doi.org/10.1016/S1049-0078(02)00187-2 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/S1049-0078(02)00187-2
Brueckner, M., Kikuchi, T., & Vachadze, G. (2023). Transitional dynamics of the saving rate and economic growth. Macroeconomic Dynamics, 27(2), 482–505. https://doi.org/10.1017/S1365100521000493 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/S1365100521000493
Chakraborty, D. (2023). Exploring causality between domestic savings and economic growth: fresh panel evidence from BRICS countries. Economic Alternatives, 29(1), 48–69. https://doi.org/10.37075/EA.2023.1.03 DOI: https://doi.org/10.37075/EA.2023.1.03
Chigozie, O., & Omolade, A. (2021). Savings, investment and economic growth in Nigeria: an autoregressive distributed lag approach. Acta Universitatis Danubius. Œconomica, 17(2). https://dj.univ-danubius.ro/index.php/AUDOE/article/view/875
Eberhardt, M., & Teal, F. (2010). Productivity analysis in global manufacturing production. University of Oxford.
Flach, L., Hildenbrand, H.-M., & Teti, F. (2021). The regional comprehensive economic partnership agreement and its expected effects on world trade. Intereconomics, 56(2), 92–98. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10272-021-0960-2 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10272-021-0960-2
Hundie, S. K. (2014). Savings, investment and economic growth in Ethiopia: Evidence from ARDL approach to co-integration and TYDL Granger-causality tests. Journal of Economics and International Finance, 6(10), 232–248. https://doi.org/10.5897/JEIF2014.0600 DOI: https://doi.org/10.5897/JEIF2014.0600
Im, K. S., Pesaran, M. H., & Shin, Y. (2003). Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels. Journal of Econometrics, 115(1), 53–47. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-4076(03)00092-7 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-4076(03)00092-7
Joshi, A., Pradhan, S., & Bist, J. P. (2019). Savings, investment, and growth in Nepal: an empirical analysis. Financial Innovation, 5(1), 39. https://doi.org/10.1186/s40854-019-0154-0 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1186/s40854-019-0154-0
Jouini, J. (2016). Economic growth and savings in Saudi Arabia: empirical evidence from cointegration and causality analysis. Asia-Pacific Journal of Accounting & Economics, 23(4), 478–495. https://doi.org/10.1080/16081625.2015.1129282 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/16081625.2015.1129282
Juodis, A., Karavias, Y., & Sarafidis, V. (2021). A homogeneous approach to testing for Granger non-causality in heterogeneous panels. Empirical Economics, 60(1), 93–112. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00181-020-01970-9 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00181-020-01970-9
Lean, H. H., & Song, Y. (2009). The domestic savings and economic growth relationship in China. Journal of Chinese Economic and Foreign Trade Studies, 2(1), 5–17. https://doi.org/10.1108/17544400910934315 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1108/17544400910934315
Liu, M., & Ma, Q.-P. (2022). The impact of the saving rate on economic growth in Asian countries. National Accounting Review, 4(4), 412–427. https://doi.org/10.3934/NAR.2022023 DOI: https://doi.org/10.3934/NAR.2022023
McKinnon, R. (1973). Money and capital in economic development. Brookings Institution Press.
Nguyen, N. T. K., & Nguyen, H. H. (2017). Impacts of domestic savings on economic growth of Vietnam. Asian Journal of Economic Modelling, 5(3), 245–252. https://doi.org/10.18488/journal.8.2017.53.245.252 DOI: https://doi.org/10.18488/journal.8.2017.53.245.252
Odhiambo, N. M. (2008). Financial depth, savings and economic growth in Kenya: A dynamic causal linkage. Economic Modelling, 25(4), 704–713. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2007.10.009 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2007.10.009
Patra, S. K., Murthy, D. S., Babu Kuruva, M., & Mohanty, A. (2017). Revisiting the causal nexus between savings and economic growth in India: An empirical analysis. EconomiA, 18(3), 380–391. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econ.2017.05.001 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econ.2017.05.001
Pesaran, M. H. (2004). General diagnostic tests for cross-section dependence in panels (1229; CESifo Working Paper). DOI: https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.572504
Pesaran, M. H. (2007). A simple panel unit root test in the presence of cross‐section dependence. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 22(2), 265–312. https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.951 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.951
Pesaran, M. H., & Yamagata, T. (2008). Testing slope homogeneity in large panels. Journal of Econometrics, 142(1), 50–93. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2007.05.010 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2007.05.010
Shaw, E. (1973). Financial deepening in economic development. Oxford University Press.
Singh, T. (2010). Does domestic saving cause economic growth? A time-series evidence from India. Journal of Policy Modeling, 32(2), 231–253. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpolmod.2009.08.008 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpolmod.2009.08.008
Smith, L. V., Leybourne, S., Kim, T., & Newbold, P. (2004). More powerful panel data unit root tests with an application to mean reversion in real exchange rates. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 19(2), 147–170. https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.723 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.723
Sothan, S. (2014). Causal relationship between domestic saving and economic growth: evidence from Cambodia. International Journal of Economics and Finance, 6(9), p213. https://doi.org/10.5539/ijef.v6n9p213 DOI: https://doi.org/10.5539/ijef.v6n9p213
Šubová, N., Buleca, J., Affuso, E., & Mixon, F. G. (2024). The link between household savings rates and GDP: evidence from the Visegrád group. Post-Communist Economies, 36(2), 197–221. https://doi.org/10.1080/14631377.2023.2262688 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/14631377.2023.2262688
Tang, C. F. (2009). Does causality technique matter to the savings-growth nexus in Malaysia? Malaysian Management Journal, 13(1&2), 1–10. https://e-journal.uum.edu.my/index.php/mmj/article/view/8957
Tang, C. F. (2015). How stable is the savings-led growth hypothesis in Malaysia? The bootstrap simulation and recursive causality tests. Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, 9(1), 1–17. https://doi.org/10.1177/0973801014557393 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1177/0973801014557393
Tang, C. F., & Ch’ng, K. S. (2012). A multivariate analysis of the nexus between savings and economic growth in the ASEAN-5 economies. Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, 6(3), 385–406. https://doi.org/10.1177/097380101200600304 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1177/097380101200600304
Tang, C. F., & Chua, S. Y. (2012). The savings-growth nexus for the Malaysian economy: a view through rolling sub-samples. Applied Economics, 44(32), 4173–4185. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2011.587784 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2011.587784
Tang, C. F., & Tan, E. C. (2017). Re-visiting the savings-led growth hypothesis and its stability in east asian economies. International Economic Journal, 31(3), 436–447. https://doi.org/10.1080/10168737.2017.1325386 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/10168737.2017.1325386
Van Wyk, B. F., & Kapingura, F. M. (2021). Understanding the nexus between savings and economic growth: A South African context. Development Southern Africa, 38(5), 828–844. https://doi.org/10.1080/0376835X.2021.1932424 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/0376835X.2021.1932424
Westerlund, J. (2007). Testing for error correction in panel data*. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 69(6), 709–748. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0084.2007.00477.x DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0084.2007.00477.x
Westerlund, J. (2008). Panel cointegration tests of the Fisher effect. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 23(2), 193–233. https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.967 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.967
World Bank. (2023). World Development Indicators. https://databank.worldbank.org/data/source/world-development-indicators#
Xiao, J., Karavias, Y., Juodis, A., Sarafidis, V., & Ditzen, J. (2023). Improved tests for Granger noncausality in panel data. The Stata Journal: Promoting Communications on Statistics and Stata, 23(1), 230–242. https://doi.org/10.1177/1536867X231162034 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1177/1536867X231162034
