Forecasting demand for long-term care based on multistate piecewise constant Markov process

Cui Xiaodong, Zheng Yuhua

Abstract

This paper forecasts demand for long-term care based on multistate piecewise
constant Markov process. Two types of data are mainly used in this study. The
first type of data came from the Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey
(CLHLS), 2008-2011. The second type of data came from the China’s
Demographic Yearbook of 2016, used as the number of population in the base
period. It finds that the changes in health have a significant difference in gender
and age. It also finds that under different health states, the distribution of duration
of staying in each state in different gender and age groups shows a characteristic
similar to the distribution of population size.

Keywords

Markov process, forecast, expectancy, population

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