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Abstract
This paper forecasts demand for long-term care based on multistate piecewise
constant Markov process. Two types of data are mainly used in this study. The
first type of data came from the Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey
(CLHLS), 2008-2011. The second type of data came from the China’s
Demographic Yearbook of 2016, used as the number of population in the base
period. It finds that the changes in health have a significant difference in gender
and age. It also finds that under different health states, the distribution of duration
of staying in each state in different gender and age groups shows a characteristic
similar to the distribution of population size.
Keywords
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References
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- Zheng Wei, Lin Shanjun, Chen Kai, Characteristics and Trend of Population Aging in China and Its Potential Impact on Economic Growth [J]. The Journal of Quantitative & Technical Economics,2014(8):3-38
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- Costa-Font, Wittenberg R.Projecting long-term care expenditure in four European Union member states: the influence of demographic scenarios [J]. Soc Indic Res, 2008 (2):303–321
- Zhu Minglai.The Analysis of Demand for Long-term Care and its Insurance System Constructing in China [J].Chinese Journal of Health Policy[J], 2009(7):32-38.
- Zeng Yi, Chen Huashuai, Wang Zhenglian. Analysis on Trends of Future Home-based Care Needs
- and Costs for Elderly in China [J].Economic Research Journal，2012(10):134-149.
- Comas-Herrera A, Northey S, Wittenberg R, et al. Future costs of dementia-related long-term care: exploring future scenarios [J].Int Psychogeriatric, 2012(1):20–30
- Rickayzen B, Walsh D. A multi-state model of disability for the UK: implications for need for long term care for the elderly [J]. Br Actuar J,2002 (2):341–393
- Hare WL, Alimadad A, DoddH, et al.A deterministic model of home and community care client counts in British Columbia[J]. Health Care Manag Sci, 2009(1):80–98.
- Chahed S, Demir E, Chaussalet TJ, et al. Measuring and modelling occupancy time in NHS continuing Healthcare [J]. BMC Health Serv Res,2011(11):163-178..
- Peng R, Ling L, Qun H. Self-rated health status transition and long-term care need of the oldest Chinese [J]. Health Policy, 2010(2):259–266.
- Peng Rong.. Analysis of Senior Population Nursing Needs Based on Markov Model [J]，Statistics & Information Forum,2009(3):77-79.
- Huang Feng, Wu Chunjie. A Study of Long-Term-Care Demand of the Elderly in China: Based on Multistatus Transition Model[J]，Economic Research Journal,2012(2):119-130.
- Philip Worrall,Thierry J. A structured review of long-term care demand modelling [J]. Health Care Manag Sci [J].2015(18):173–194.
References
Lin Bao. An Analysis on the Status and Trend of Old Population without Self-care Ability in China [J].Population ＆ Economics，2015（4）：77-84
Zheng Wei, Lin Shanjun, Chen Kai, Characteristics and Trend of Population Aging in China and Its Potential Impact on Economic Growth [J]. The Journal of Quantitative & Technical Economics,2014(8):3-38
Hu Hongwei.Estimation and Prediction of Demand of Chinese Elderly Long-term Care Service[J]. Chinese Journal of Population Science,2015(3):79-89
Comas-Herrera A, Wittenberg R, Costa-Font J. Future long-term care expenditure in Germany, Spain, Italy, and the United Kingdom [J]. Ageing Society, 2006 (2):285–302.
Comas-Herrera A, Wittenberg R. Cognitive impairment in older people: future demand for long-term care services and the associated costs [J]. Int J Geriatric Psychiatry, 2007 (10):1025–1037
Costa-Font, Wittenberg R.Projecting long-term care expenditure in four European Union member states: the influence of demographic scenarios [J]. Soc Indic Res, 2008 (2):303–321
Zhu Minglai.The Analysis of Demand for Long-term Care and its Insurance System Constructing in China [J].Chinese Journal of Health Policy[J], 2009(7):32-38.
Zeng Yi, Chen Huashuai, Wang Zhenglian. Analysis on Trends of Future Home-based Care Needs
and Costs for Elderly in China [J].Economic Research Journal，2012(10):134-149.
Comas-Herrera A, Northey S, Wittenberg R, et al. Future costs of dementia-related long-term care: exploring future scenarios [J].Int Psychogeriatric, 2012(1):20–30
Rickayzen B, Walsh D. A multi-state model of disability for the UK: implications for need for long term care for the elderly [J]. Br Actuar J,2002 (2):341–393
Hare WL, Alimadad A, DoddH, et al.A deterministic model of home and community care client counts in British Columbia[J]. Health Care Manag Sci, 2009(1):80–98.
Chahed S, Demir E, Chaussalet TJ, et al. Measuring and modelling occupancy time in NHS continuing Healthcare [J]. BMC Health Serv Res,2011(11):163-178..
Peng R, Ling L, Qun H. Self-rated health status transition and long-term care need of the oldest Chinese [J]. Health Policy, 2010(2):259–266.
Peng Rong.. Analysis of Senior Population Nursing Needs Based on Markov Model [J]，Statistics & Information Forum,2009(3):77-79.
Huang Feng, Wu Chunjie. A Study of Long-Term-Care Demand of the Elderly in China: Based on Multistatus Transition Model[J]，Economic Research Journal,2012(2):119-130.
Philip Worrall,Thierry J. A structured review of long-term care demand modelling [J]. Health Care Manag Sci [J].2015(18):173–194.