Main Article Content
Abstract
Purpose – This paper examines the effect of various energy prices and population sizes on energy consumption in the United States.
Methods – This paper begins the analysis by conducting integration tests on the existing variables. The test produces a mixture of variables I(0) and I(1), so the model chosen is the ARDL model. The bound test indicates cointegration, and the analysis is continued by estimating the conditional ECM model.
Findings – Both the ARDL and conditional ECM model estimates find that the prices of all components of energy consumed, as well as population size, are good explanations of energy consumption behavior. Significant autoregressive factor up to lag 3 indicates that energy consumption behavior is strongly influenced by energy consumption in the past. Coal prices, crude oil prices, and natural gas prices only affect contemporaneously. Population size affects both contemporaries and three lags in the past. The estimation results with the conditional ECM in the long-term model estimation segment confirm the results from the ARDL model. The short-term ECM conditional estimation results suggest that all variables significantly affect the dependent variable.
Implication – The lag effect of the dependent variable implies that energy consumption in the present is highly dependent on consumption in the lamp life. The historical effect of various energy source prices means that consumers only consider current prices in deciding how much energy to consume.
Originality – This research contributes to modeling the influence of various variables on energy consumption in the United States.
Abstrak
Tujuan – Paper ini menguji pengaruh berbagai harga energi serta ukuran populasi terhadap konsumsi energi di Amerika Serikat.
Metode – Paper ini mengawali analisis dengan melakukan uji integrasi atas variabel-variabel yang ada. Uji tersebut menghasilkan campuran antara variabel-variabel I(0) dan I(1), sehingga model yang terpilih adalah model ARDL. Uji kointegrasi dengan bound test menyarankan keberadaaan kointegrasi sehingga analisis dilanjutkan dengan mengestimasi model conditional ECM.
Temuan – Estimasi model ARDL dan conditional ECM menemukan bahwa harga semua komponen energi yang dikonsumsi serta ukuran populasi menjadi penjelas yang baik terhadap perilaku konsumsi energi. Faktor autoregressive signifikan sampai lag 3 menandakan bahwa perilaku konsumsi energi sangat dipengaruhi oleh konsumsi energi di masa lampau. Harga batubara, harga minyak mentah, dan harga gas alam hanya berpengaruh secara sejaman. Ukuran populasi memiliki pengaruh baik sejaman maupun tiga lag di masa lampau. Hasil estimasi dengan conditional ECM, dalam segmen estimasi model jangka panjang, mengkonfirmasi hasil dari model ARDL. Hasil estimasi
Keywords
Article Details
References
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References
Abid, M. (2020). The long-run and short-run effects of oil price on energy consumption in Tunisia: Evidence from structural breaks analysis. Energy Sources, Part B: Economics, Planning and Policy, 15(4), 252–277. https://doi.org/10.1080/15567249.2020.1785054
Arora, V., & Shi, S. (2016). Energy consumption and economic growth in the United States. Applied Economics, 48(39), 3763–3773. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2016.1145347
Asafu-Adjaye, J. (2000). The relationship between energy consumption, energy prices and economic growth: Time series evidence from Asian developing countries. Energy Economics, 22(6), 615–625. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-9883(00)00050-5
BP. (2021). Statistical Review of World Energy. BP Energy Outlook, 70, 8–20.
Chang, T., Fang, W., & Wen, L. F. (2001). Energy consumption, employment, output, and temporal causality: Evidence from Taiwan based on cointegration and error-correction modelling techniques. Applied Economics, 33(8), 1045–1056. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036840122484
Climent, F., & Pardo, A. (2007). Decoupling factors on the energy-output linkage: The Spanish case. Energy Policy, 35(1), 522–528. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2005.12.022
CNBC. (2021). Krisis Energi Ancaman Baru Ekonomi. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YH0y-6TVBCc
Ewing, B. T., Sari, R., & Soytas, U. (2007). Disaggregate energy consumption and industrial output in the United States. Energy Policy, 35(2), 1274–1281. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2006.03.012
Fatai, K., Oxley, L., & Scrimgeour, F. G. (2004). Modelling the causal relationship between energy consumption and GDP in New Zealand, Australia, India, Indonesia, The Philippines and Thailand. Mathematics and Computers in Simulation, 64(3–4), 431–445. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0378-4754(03)00109-5
Lee, C. C., & Chiu, Y. Bin. (2011). Nuclear energy consumption, oil prices, and economic growth: Evidence from highly industrialized countries. Energy Economics, 33(2), 236–248. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2010.07.001
Mahadevan, R., & Asafu-Adjaye, J. (2007). Energy consumption, economic growth and prices: A reassessment using panel VECM for developed and developing countries. Energy Policy, 35(4), 2481–2490. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2006.08.019
Parkin, M. (2014). Economics, 11th ed. Pearson Education, Inc.
Payne, J. E. (2012). The causal dynamics between US renewable energy consumption, output, emissions, and oil prices. Energy Sources, Part B: Economics, Planning and Policy, 7(4), 323–330. https://doi.org/10.1080/15567249.2011.595248
Pransuamitra, P. A. (2022). Benua Biru Krisis Energi, Separah Apa Efeknya ke Ekonomi? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LpBg5FD6Fqo
Shepard, J. U., & Pratson, L. F. (2022). The myth of US energy independence. Nature Energy, 7(6), 462–464. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41560-022-01053-2
Soytas, U., & Sari, R. (2007). The relationship between energy and production: Evidence from Turkish manufacturing industry. Energy Economics, 29(6), 1151–1165. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2006.05.019
Statista. (2022). Primary energy consumption worldwide in 2021. https://www.statista.com/statistics/263455/primary-energy-consumption-of-selected-countries/#:~:text=China is the largest consumer,such as oil and coal.
Thoma, M. (2004). Electrical energy usage over the business cycle. Energy Economics, 26(3), 463–485. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2004.04.006
Wright, V. P. (1986). World Energy Outlook. 23–28.
Zachariadis, T. (2007). Exploring the relationship between energy use and economic growth with bivariate models: New evidence from G-7 countries. Energy Economics, 29(6), 1233–1253. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2007.05.001