Main Article Content
Abstract
Purpose – This study aims to explore the factors that influence the food price index in Indonesia
Methods – This study uses ARDL analysis and is conducted using monthly time series data from January 2000 until August 2023
Findings – The result shows that money supply had a positive and significant impact on the food price index in Indonesia both in the short-run and long-run.
Implication – The Indonesian government needs to formulate a policy that resists increasing food prices, especially during sudden spikes in money supply.
Originality – The findings of this research can be used as an additional reference for the stakeholders and policymakers to control the movement of the food price index in Indonesia.
Abstrak
Tujuan – Penelitian ini merupakan sebuah upaya untuk menyelidiki faktor apa saja yang mempengaruhi indeks harga pangan di Indonesia
Metode – Penelitian ini menggunakan analisis ARDL dan menggunakan data time series bulanan dari Januari 2000 sampai dengan Agustus 2023
Temuan – Hasil estimasi ARDL menunjukkan bahwa pada jangka pendek dan jangka panjang jumlah uang beredar memberikan dampak positif dan signifikan terhadap indeks harga pangan di Indonesia.
Implikasi – Pemerintah Indonesia hendaknya dapat merumuskan suatu kebijakan yang dapat meredam kenaikan tingkat indeks harga pangan khususnya pada saat terjadi kenaikan tajam pada jumlah uang beredar.
Orisinalitas – Hasil penelitian ini dapat dijadikan sebagai referensi tambahan oleh pemangku kepentingan dan pembuat kebijakan dalam merumuskan kebijakan terkait indeks harga pangan di Indonesia.
Keywords
Article Details
Copyright (c) 2024 Farid Nugroho, Akhsyim Afandi
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.
References
- Abdlaziz, R. A., Rahim, K. A., & Adamu, P. (2016). Oil and food prices co-integration nexus for Indonesia: A non-linear autoregressive distributed lag analysis. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 6(1), 82–87.
- ADB. (2023, September 20). GDP Growth in Asia and the Pacific. https://data.adb.org/dataset/gdp-growth-asia-and-pacific-asian-development-outlook
- Adeosun, O. A., Tabash, M. I., & Anagreh, S. (2023). Revisiting the oil prices–domestic food inflation nexus in Nigeria: the role of global geopolitical risk. African Journal of Economic and Management Studies. https://doi.org/10.1108/AJEMS-09-2022-0399
- Anysatul, N., Abdullah, H., Azim, A., Yunus, M., Ibrahima, S., Asraf, A., & Yunusa, M. (2021). The Effect of Oil Price, Interest Rate, Consumer Price Index and Exchange Rate on Food Price.
- Bank Indonesia. (2023). Special Data Dissemination Standard. https://www.bi.go.id/id/statistik/sdds/Default.aspx#real-sector-section
- Bhattacharya, R., & Jain, R. (2020). Can monetary policy stabilise food inflation? Evidence from advanced and emerging economies. Economic Modelling, 89, 122–141. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2019.10.005
- FAO. (2023, September). FAO Food Price Index. https://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/foodpricesindex/en/
- Hamadeh, N., Van Rompaey, C., Metreau, E., & Eapen, S. G. (2022, July 1). World Bank country classifications by income level: 2022-2023. World Bank Development Data Group. https://blogs.worldbank.org/opendata/new-world-bank-country-classifications-income-level-2022-2023
- Ibrahim, M. H. (2015). Oil and food prices in Malaysia: a nonlinear ARDL analysis. Agricultural and Food Economics, 3(1). https://doi.org/10.1186/s40100-014-0020-3
- Ibrahim, M. H., & Said, R. (2012). Disaggregated consumer prices and oil price pass-through: Evidence from Malaysia. China Agricultural Economic Review, 4(4), 514–529. https://doi.org/10.1108/17561371211284858
- İnal, V., Canbay, Ş., & Kırca, M. (2023). Determinants of Food Prices in Türkiye: Fourier Engle-Granger Cointegration Test. Journal of Economic Policy Researches / İktisat Politikası Araştırmaları Dergisi, 10(1), 133–156. https://doi.org/10.26650/jepr1132061
- Kuma, B., & Gata, G. (2023). Factors affecting food price inflation in Ethiopia: An autoregressive distributed lag approach. Journal of Agriculture and Food Research, 12. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jafr.2023.100548
- Mawejje, J., & Nampewo, D. (2018). Food prices, money growth and informal cross-border trade: evidence from Uganda. African Journal of Economic and Management Studies, 9(1), 72–87. https://doi.org/10.1108/AJEMS-03-2017-0046
- Norazman, U. Z., Khalid, H., & Ghani, G. M. (2018). Food inflation: A study on key determinants and price transmission processes for Malaysia. International Journal of Business and Society, 19(1), 117–138.
- Orkun Oral, İ., Çakıcı, A., Yıldız, F., & Alayoubi, M. (2023). Determinants of food price in Turkey: A Structural VAR approach. Cogent Food and Agriculture, 9(1). https://doi.org/10.1080/23311932.2023.2247169
- Pesaran, M. H., & Shin, Y. (1998). An Autoregressive Distributed-Lag Modelling Approach to Cointegration Analysis. Econometrics and Economic Theory in the 20th Century: The Ragnar Frisch Centennial Symposium. https://doi.org/10.1017/ccol0521633230.011
- Suarsih, S., Achsani, N. A., & Nuryartono, N. (2017). Dampak Perubahan Nilai Tukar terhadap Indeks Harga Konsumen Bahan Makanan di Indonesia Exchange Rate Change Effects on Indonesia’s Foodstuff Consumer Price Index. Jurnal Ekonomi Dan Pembangunan Indonesia Juli, 17(2016), 1–14. https://doi.org/10.21002/jepi.v17i1.548
- UNPD. (2022). The 2022 Revision of World Population Prospects. Department of Economic and Social Affairs Population Division. https://population.un.org/wpp/
- Wong, K. K. S., & Shamsudin, M. N. (2017). Impact of crude oil price, exchange rates and real GDP on Malaysia’s food price fluctuations: Symmetric or asymmetric? International Journal of Economics and Management, 11(1), 259–275.
References
Abdlaziz, R. A., Rahim, K. A., & Adamu, P. (2016). Oil and food prices co-integration nexus for Indonesia: A non-linear autoregressive distributed lag analysis. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 6(1), 82–87.
ADB. (2023, September 20). GDP Growth in Asia and the Pacific. https://data.adb.org/dataset/gdp-growth-asia-and-pacific-asian-development-outlook
Adeosun, O. A., Tabash, M. I., & Anagreh, S. (2023). Revisiting the oil prices–domestic food inflation nexus in Nigeria: the role of global geopolitical risk. African Journal of Economic and Management Studies. https://doi.org/10.1108/AJEMS-09-2022-0399
Anysatul, N., Abdullah, H., Azim, A., Yunus, M., Ibrahima, S., Asraf, A., & Yunusa, M. (2021). The Effect of Oil Price, Interest Rate, Consumer Price Index and Exchange Rate on Food Price.
Bank Indonesia. (2023). Special Data Dissemination Standard. https://www.bi.go.id/id/statistik/sdds/Default.aspx#real-sector-section
Bhattacharya, R., & Jain, R. (2020). Can monetary policy stabilise food inflation? Evidence from advanced and emerging economies. Economic Modelling, 89, 122–141. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2019.10.005
FAO. (2023, September). FAO Food Price Index. https://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/foodpricesindex/en/
Hamadeh, N., Van Rompaey, C., Metreau, E., & Eapen, S. G. (2022, July 1). World Bank country classifications by income level: 2022-2023. World Bank Development Data Group. https://blogs.worldbank.org/opendata/new-world-bank-country-classifications-income-level-2022-2023
Ibrahim, M. H. (2015). Oil and food prices in Malaysia: a nonlinear ARDL analysis. Agricultural and Food Economics, 3(1). https://doi.org/10.1186/s40100-014-0020-3
Ibrahim, M. H., & Said, R. (2012). Disaggregated consumer prices and oil price pass-through: Evidence from Malaysia. China Agricultural Economic Review, 4(4), 514–529. https://doi.org/10.1108/17561371211284858
İnal, V., Canbay, Ş., & Kırca, M. (2023). Determinants of Food Prices in Türkiye: Fourier Engle-Granger Cointegration Test. Journal of Economic Policy Researches / İktisat Politikası Araştırmaları Dergisi, 10(1), 133–156. https://doi.org/10.26650/jepr1132061
Kuma, B., & Gata, G. (2023). Factors affecting food price inflation in Ethiopia: An autoregressive distributed lag approach. Journal of Agriculture and Food Research, 12. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jafr.2023.100548
Mawejje, J., & Nampewo, D. (2018). Food prices, money growth and informal cross-border trade: evidence from Uganda. African Journal of Economic and Management Studies, 9(1), 72–87. https://doi.org/10.1108/AJEMS-03-2017-0046
Norazman, U. Z., Khalid, H., & Ghani, G. M. (2018). Food inflation: A study on key determinants and price transmission processes for Malaysia. International Journal of Business and Society, 19(1), 117–138.
Orkun Oral, İ., Çakıcı, A., Yıldız, F., & Alayoubi, M. (2023). Determinants of food price in Turkey: A Structural VAR approach. Cogent Food and Agriculture, 9(1). https://doi.org/10.1080/23311932.2023.2247169
Pesaran, M. H., & Shin, Y. (1998). An Autoregressive Distributed-Lag Modelling Approach to Cointegration Analysis. Econometrics and Economic Theory in the 20th Century: The Ragnar Frisch Centennial Symposium. https://doi.org/10.1017/ccol0521633230.011
Suarsih, S., Achsani, N. A., & Nuryartono, N. (2017). Dampak Perubahan Nilai Tukar terhadap Indeks Harga Konsumen Bahan Makanan di Indonesia Exchange Rate Change Effects on Indonesia’s Foodstuff Consumer Price Index. Jurnal Ekonomi Dan Pembangunan Indonesia Juli, 17(2016), 1–14. https://doi.org/10.21002/jepi.v17i1.548
UNPD. (2022). The 2022 Revision of World Population Prospects. Department of Economic and Social Affairs Population Division. https://population.un.org/wpp/
Wong, K. K. S., & Shamsudin, M. N. (2017). Impact of crude oil price, exchange rates and real GDP on Malaysia’s food price fluctuations: Symmetric or asymmetric? International Journal of Economics and Management, 11(1), 259–275.