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Abstract
Cabai merah merupakan salah satu komoditas strategis di Indonesia dan termasuk komoditas terbesar berdasarkan jumlah produksinya. Tanaman cabai merah memiliki masa panen lebih dari satu kali. Cabai merah di Indonesia terbilang tinggi dari segi kebutuhannya dan produksinya bersifat musiman sehingga membuat harga cabai merah fluktuatif. Analisis ARIMA salah satu metode yang cocok digunakan untuk peramalan data time series karena menggunakan nilai masa lalu dan sekarang untuk variabel dependen. Tujuan dari penelitian untuk memperoleh prediksi harga cabai merah untuk 12 periode mendatang. Data berupa harga konsumen cabai merah di Indonesia dari Januari 2017 sampai Desember 2021. Berdasarkan analisis diperoleh model terbaik untuk peramalan harga cabai merah yaitu ARIMA (2,0,0). Hasil peramalan untuk Januari hingga Desember 2022 menunjukkan harga konsumen cabai merah mengalami kenaikan namun cenderung stabil berada dalam range harga yang sama.
Kata kunci: Harga Konsumen, Cabai Merah, ARIMA.
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