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Abstract
A common annual problem that often occurs in DKI Jakarta is flooding. Extreme rainfall is one of the most dominant factors that trigger flooding in DKI Jakarta. Global warming causes climate change and rainfall characteristics. This study aims to understand the characteristics of the climate rainfall in DKI Jakarta at this time and the potential for changes in the future. In this study, the characteristics of rainfall which is analyzed were rainfall variabilities such as annual rainfall, maximum rainfall, and the number of rainy days as indicated by analysis of rainfall trends or the tendency of changes in rainfall characteristics over time. Rainfall prediction simulation is carried out using the Statistical Downscaling method. The climate model used is CanESM5 (The Canadian Earth System Model version 5), which is one of the climate models in the Assessment Report (AR6) issued by the IPCC in 2022. The future rainfall at each station is projected for the future period (FP), namely FP-1 (2025-2049), FP-2 (2050-2074), and FP-3 (2075-2100) with the climate scenario Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSP) 3-7,0. Predictive rainfall analysis yields information that the average annual rainfall, average maximum rainfall and the number of rainy days generally increase in each future period when compared to the historical annual average rainfall. In general, climate change does not result in changes in monsoon rainfall patterns. However, global warming has the potential to increase future rainfall and speed up the start of the rainy season.
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References
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References
Darmalantu, Kumara. (2014). “Kajian Dampak Perubahan Iklim Global Terhadap Karakteristik Hujan Di Wilayah Jabodetabek”. Skripsi S1. Program Studi Teknik Sipil, Departemen Teknik Sipil dan Lingkungan, Fakultas Teknik, Universitas Gadjah Mada.
Dasanto, B. D., R. Boer, B. Pramudya, and Y. Suharnoto. (2014). “Evaluasi Curah Hujan TRMM Menggunakan Pendekatan Koreksi Bias Statistik,” J. Tanah dan Iklim, vol. 38, no. 1, pp. 15– 24.
Ekstrom, M., Grose, M.R. and Whetton, P.H. (2015). “An appraisal of downscaling methods used in climate change research”. Climatic Change, 6: 301–319. doi: 10.1002/wcc.339
Hashmi, M.Z., A.Y. Shamseldin, and B.W. Melville. (2011). “Comparison of SDSM and LARS-WG for Simulation and Downscaling of Extreme Precipitation Events in a Watershed”. Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment. 25(4): 475–84.
Hausfather, Zeke. (2019). “CMIP6: the next generation of climate models explained”. Carbon Brief. https://www.carbonbrief.org/cmip6-the-next-generation-of-climate-models-explained/ diakses pada tanggal 14 Juli 2022.
IPCC. (2022). “Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change”. H.-O. Pörtner, D.C. Roberts, M. Tignor, E.S. Poloczanska, K. Mintenbeck, A. Alegría, M. Craig, S. Langsdorf, S. Löschke, V. Möller, A. Okem, B. Rama (eds.). Cambridge University Press. In Press.
IPCC. (2022). “Summary for Policymakers, In: Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change”. H.-O. Pörtner, D.C. Roberts, M. Tignor, E.S. Poloczanska, K. Mintenbeck, A. Alegría, M. Craig, S. Langsdorf, S. Löschke, V. Möller, A. Okem, B. Rama (eds.). Cambridge University Press. In Press.
Khan, M. S., Coulibaly, P., and Dibike, Y. (2006). “Uncertainty analysis of statistical downscaling methods”. Journal of Hydrology, 319(1-4), 357-382.
Mishra, B.K., Rafiei Emam, A., Massago, Y., Kumar, P., Regmi, R.K., and Fukushi, K. (2018). “Assesment of future flood inundations under climate and land use change scenario in the Ciliwung River Basin, Jakarta”. Journal of Flood Risk Management Vol. 11, S555-S1136. DOI: 10.1111/jfr3.12311
O’Gorman, P.A., (2015). “Precipitation Extremes Under Climate Change”. Current Climate Change Reports 1, 49-59. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40641-015-0009-3
ONAD, Bhenjamin Jordan, Srivatsan V Raghavan, Senfeng Liu, and Ngoc Son Nguyen. (2022). Evaluation of future rainfall over Southeast Asia using the CMIP6 multi-model ensemble. Research Square.
Pepler, A. S, L. V. Alexander, J. P. Evans, and S. C. Sherwood. (2016). “Zonal winds and southeast Australian rainfall in global and regional climatemodels,” Climate Dynamics, vol. 46, no. 1-2, pp. 123–133.
Pratiwi, E.P.A., Sujono, J., and Jayadi, R. (2012). “Kajian Variabilitas Curah Hujan di Wilayah Lereng Gunung Merapi dengan Uji Mann-Kendall”. Info Teknik, 13(1), 1-10.
Rahayu, H.P., Haigh, R., Amaratunga, D., Kombaitan, B., Khoirunnisa, D. and Pradana, V. (2020). “A micro scale study of climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction in coastal urban strategic planning for the Jakarta”. International Journal of Disaster Resilience in the Built Environment. 11:119–133. doi: 10.1108/IJDRBE-10-2019-0073
Reshmidevi, T. V., Kumar, D. N., Mehrotra, R., and Sharma, A. (2018). Estimation of the climate change impact on a catchment water balance using an ensemble of GCMs. Journal of Hydrology, 556, 1192-1204.
Silva, R.M., Celso A. G. Santos, Madalena Moreira, João Corte-Real, Valeriano C. L. Silva and Isabella C. Medeiros. (2015). “Rainfall and river flow trends using Mann–Kendall and Sen’s slope estimator statistical tests in the Cobres River basin”. Natural Hazards volume 77, pages1205–1221.
Safril, A., Ulfiana A., (2012). “Prediksi Curah Hujan Bulanan Menggunakan Metode Statistical Downscaling di Pulau Jawa Dengan Pemilihan Prediktor Berdasarkan Transpor Uap Air”. Jurnal Geografi Vol 11 No.1 (19-33).
Suwarman, Rusmawan, Edi R., Yogi S.M.S, Dasapta E.I. (2022). “Kajian Perubahan Iklim di Pesisir Jakarta Berdasarkan Data Curah Hujan dan Temperatur”. Buletin Oseanografi Marina Februari 2022 Vol 11 No 1:99–110. DOI:10.14710/buloma.v11i1.42749
USGCRP (U.S. Global Change Research Program). (2017). “Climate science special report: Fourth National Climate Assessment, volume I”. Wuebbles, D.J., D.W. Fahey, K.A. Hibbard, D.J. Dokken, B.C. Stewart, and T.K. Maycock, eds. doi:10.7930/J0J964J6.
Wilby, R. L., Charles, S. P., Zorita, E., Timbal, B., Whetton, P., and Mearns, L. O. (2004). “Guidelines for Use of Climate Scenarios Developed from Statistical Downscaling Methods Analysis”. 27(August), 1–27.