Main Article Content
Abstract
The research and study cover a theoretical discussion and empirical study on factors
affecting the Indonesian Government’s foreign debt and their impact on the State Revenues
and Expenditures Budget (APBN) based on annual data from 1970 to 2008. The
research employs the Error Correction Model (ECM) approach by applying the Ordinary
Least Square (OLS) method. The research results indicate that within a long-term period,
there was a balance between changes in the Indonesian Government’s foreign debts and
macro-economic variables, i.e. budget deficit, exchange rate, export, GNP level, and dummy
variables for the 1997 economic crisis, despite the fact that the budget deficit variable did
not significantly affect the Indonesian Government’s foreign debts within the observed
period. On the other hand, within a short-term period changes in the Indonesian Government’s
foreign debts were affected significantly by dummy variables for the 1997 economic crisis
and the ECT variable. Within such a period, the budget deficit, exchange rate, export, and
GNP level variables did not significantly affect by the Indonesian Government’s foreign
debts. Thus, it could be concluded that the Indonesian Government’s foreign debts tended
to respond to changes occurring in macro-economic variables, especially export, exchange
rate, economic growth, and condition of foreign debts post-1997 economic crisis.
Keywords: foreign debt, budget, balance, macro-economic.
affecting the Indonesian Government’s foreign debt and their impact on the State Revenues
and Expenditures Budget (APBN) based on annual data from 1970 to 2008. The
research employs the Error Correction Model (ECM) approach by applying the Ordinary
Least Square (OLS) method. The research results indicate that within a long-term period,
there was a balance between changes in the Indonesian Government’s foreign debts and
macro-economic variables, i.e. budget deficit, exchange rate, export, GNP level, and dummy
variables for the 1997 economic crisis, despite the fact that the budget deficit variable did
not significantly affect the Indonesian Government’s foreign debts within the observed
period. On the other hand, within a short-term period changes in the Indonesian Government’s
foreign debts were affected significantly by dummy variables for the 1997 economic crisis
and the ECT variable. Within such a period, the budget deficit, exchange rate, export, and
GNP level variables did not significantly affect by the Indonesian Government’s foreign
debts. Thus, it could be concluded that the Indonesian Government’s foreign debts tended
to respond to changes occurring in macro-economic variables, especially export, exchange
rate, economic growth, and condition of foreign debts post-1997 economic crisis.
Keywords: foreign debt, budget, balance, macro-economic.
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How to Cite
Saleh, S. (2012). Faktor-Faktor yang Mempengaruhi Pinjaman Luar Negeri serta Imbasnya terhadap APBN. Unisia, 31(70). https://doi.org/10.20885/unisia.vol31.iss70.art4
