Main Article Content
Abstract
This research was carried out using annual report data on the employment level and Consumer Price Index obtained from Indonesian Statistics Book of 1980-2016 published by Central Bureau of Statistics (BPS, Ind) aimed to look into the relationship between unemployment and inflation in Indonesia in the period of year 1980 – 2016. The analysis method used is Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), which is a restricted VAR model, because of the existing cointegration that presented the long period relationship between the unemployment and inflation variable rate in VAR model. VECM could analyse the long and short period inter variable relationship. The result of the analysis showed the significant presence of negative relationship with the IHK within the short period of the lag 2 unemployment variable rate. Hence, within three years (lag 3) the IHK variable and the unemployment rate significantly affected each other with a positive relationshipship. In the long period, the unemployment rate variable had a positive influence to the IHK variable. Furthermore, the Impluse Response Function (IRF) explained the effect of the shock on one variable towards another variable. At the first to the second period the IHK variable had not responded to the given shock, while it experienced a negative decrease in the third period. At the fourth period the IHK variable responded towards the positive, and then the trend pointed out at a positive realationship until the tenth period.
Keywords: Phillips Curve, Unemployment Rate, Inflation, Consumer Price Index, Vector Error Correction Model (VECM).
Article Details
References
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- Sekaran, U. (2011), Metode Penelitian Untuk Bisnis. Jakarta, Salemba Empat
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- Sukanto (2015),”Inflation phenomenon, Unemploymont and Economi Growth in Indonesia”: Phillips Curve Attachment and Okun Law” (“Fenomena Inflasi, Pengangguran dan Pertumbuhan Ekonomi di Indonesia: Pendekatan Kurva Phillips dan Hukum Okun”), Jurnal Ekonomi Pembangunan Universitas Sriwijaya, Vol.12 No.2, hal 96-106.
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References
Ahmad, I. (2007). “Relationship between Inflation with Unemployment Level Phillips Curve Test with Indonesian Data, 1976-2006 Jurnal Ekubank, Vol 1”. (“Hubungan Antara Inflasi dengan Tingkat Pengangguran Pengujian Kurva Philips dengan Data Indonesia,1976-2006”. Jurnal Ekubank, Vol 1.)
Al-zeaud, H. & A. Saleh (2015), “Does Phillips Curve Really Exist? An Empirical Evidence From Jordan”, European Scientic Journal, Vol.11, No.10.
Amri, A. (2007), “The affect of Inflation and Economy Growth to Unemployment in Indonesia. Inflation Journal and Unemployment, Vol.1, No.1.” (Pengaruh Inflasi dan Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Terhadap Pengangguran di Indonesia”. Jurnal Inflasi dan Pengangguran, Vol. 1, No. 1).
Central Bureau of Statistics (2016), Employment Condition (Badan Pusat Statistik (2016), Keadaan Ketenagakerjaan Agustus 2016, Jakarta, dari https://www.bp.go.id/website/brs_ind/brsind-20161107121150.pdf
______, (2018), Perkembangan Ekspor dan Impor Indonesia Agustus 2018, Jakarta, dari https://www.bps.go.id/pressrelease/download.html?nrbvfeve=MTUwNA%3D%3D&sdf
s=ldjfdifsdjkfahi&twoadfnoarfeauf=MjAxOC0wOS0yMCAyMDo1NjoyOA%3D%3D)
Bank Indonesia (2017), Inflation Target Stipulation, Jakarta (Penetapan Target Inflasi, Jakarta, dari https://www.bi.go.id/id/moneter/inflasi/bi-dan-inflasi/Contents/Penetapan.aspx)
_______, (2017), Introduction to Inflation (Pengenalan Inflasi, Jakarta, dari https://www .bi.go.id/id/moneter/inflasi/pengenalan/Contents/Default.aspx)
Biro Analisa Anggaran dan Pelaksanaan APBN (2014). “Analisis Keberadaan Trade-off Inflasi dan Pengangguran (Kurva Phillips) di Indonesia”, Jakarta, dari
http://www .dpr.go.id/doksetjen/dokumen/apbn_analisis_keberadaan_tradeoff_inflasi_ dan_pengangguran_%28kurva_phillips%29_di_indonesia20140821142142.pdf.
Boediono (1995), Seri Sinopsis Pengantar Ilmu Ekonomi No.2
Ekonomi Makro, Edisi Keempat, Yogyakarta, BPFE-UGM.
_______, (2011), Ekonomi Makro, Yogyakarta, BPFE-UGM.
Enders, W. (1995), Applied Econometric Time Series, New York, JohnWiley & Sons.
Friedman, M. (1968), The Role of Monetary Policy, American Economic Review, Vol. 58, No. 1: 1-17.
Gujarati, D. dan D.C. Porter (2009), Basic Econometrics, 5th Edition, New York, McGraw-Hill
International Labour Organization (2018), Unemployment rate - ILO modelled estimates, dari https://www.ilo.org/ilostat/faces/oracle/webcenter/portalapp/pagehierarchy/Page3.jsp x?MBI_ID=2&_afrLoop=127091789745159&_afrWindowMode=0&_afrWindowId=af mfhb2z2_1#!%40%40%3F_afrWindowId%3Dafmfhb2z2_1%26_afrLoop%3D1270917 89745159%26MBI_ID%3D2%26_afrWindowMode%3D0%26_adf.ctrl- state%3Dafmfhb2z2_57
Iswardono, S. P., (1997), Uang dan Bank. Edisi 4. Yogyakarta, BPFE.
Juanda, B. dan Junaidi (2012), Ekonometrika Deret Waktu Teori dan Aplikasi. Bogor, IPB Press.
Kaufman, dan J. Hotchkiss (1999), The Economics Of Labor Market, Fifth Edition, New York, The Dryden Press.
Kementerian Keuangan Republik Indonesia (2017), RAPBN 2017, “Meningkatkan Daya Saing dan Mendorong Pertumbuhan Ekonomi yang Berkelanjutan”, Jakarta, dari
https://www .kemenkeu.go.id/sites/default/filies/Keterangan%20Pers%20NK%20RAP BN%202017.pdf
Mankiw, N. G., dkk. (terj.) (2012), Pengantar Ekonomi Makro. Jakarta, Salemba Empat.
Manurung, Mandala (2001), Teori Ekonomi Makro. Jakarta, LPFE-UI.
Mishkin, F. S. (2004), The Economics of Money, Banking, and Financial Markets, Boston, Pearson education.
Nachrowi, D. N. dan H. Usman (2006), Ekonometrika, Jakarta. FEUI.
Ningsih, F. R. (2010). The Affect of Inflation and Economy Growth to the Unemployment in Indonesia in 1988-2008 (“Pengaruh Inflasi dan Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Terhadap Pengangguran di Indonesia Periode Tahun 1988-2008”, Skripsi sarjana (Dipublikasikan), Fakultas Ekonomi dan Ilmu Sosial, Universitas Islam Negeri Syarif Hidayatullah. Jakarta.)
Nopirin, P. D. (2000), Monetary Economy (Ekonomi Moneter, Buku 1 Edisi Keempat, Yogyakarta, BPFE-UGM).
Nugroho, P. W. & M. U. Basuki (2012). Analysis on Factors that influence Inflation in Indonesia, Period 2000.1–2011.4 (“Analisis faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi inflasi di Indonesia Periode 2000.1–2011.4”,) Skripsi sarjana (Dipublikasikan), Fakultas Ekonomika dan Bisnis, Universitas Diponogoro. Semarang.
Pohan, A. (2008), Portrait of Indonesian Monetary Policy (Potret Kebijakan Moneter Indonesia. Jakarta, PT Raja Grafindo Persada).
Pratiko, I.S. & R. Lucky (2013), Unemployment level influence on Inflation in Surabaya (“Pengaruh Tingkat Pengangguran Terhadap Inflasi di Kota Surabaya”, Jurnal Pendidikan Ekonomi, Vol. 1, No. 3).
Rousseau, P. L. & Xiao, S. (2007). “Banks, Stock Markets, and China's ‘Great Leap Forward’”. Emerging Markets Review, Vol.18 No.3, hal 206-217.
Samuelson, P. A. & W. D. Nordhaus. (terj.) (2004), Ilmu Makroekonomi. Edisi Ketujuhbelas. Jakarta, PT. Media Global Edukasi.
Saputro, D. R. S., Wigena, A. H., & A. Djuraidah (2011), Model Vektor Autoregressive Untuk Peramalan Curah Hujan di Indramayu (Vector Autoregressive Model for Forecast Rainfall In Indramayu). Forum Statistika dan Komputasi, Vol. 16, No. 2 .
Sardjonopermono, I. (1997), Uang dan Bank, edisi keempat. Yogyakarta, BPFE.
Sekaran, U. (2011), Metode Penelitian Untuk Bisnis. Jakarta, Salemba Empat
Sriyono (2013), “Monetary Policy Strategy in Indonesia” (“Strategi Kebijakan Moneter di Indonesia”), JKMP Universitas Muhammadiyah Sidoarjo, Vol.1 No.2, hal 111-236.
Sukanto (2015),”Inflation phenomenon, Unemploymont and Economi Growth in Indonesia”: Phillips Curve Attachment and Okun Law” (“Fenomena Inflasi, Pengangguran dan Pertumbuhan Ekonomi di Indonesia: Pendekatan Kurva Phillips dan Hukum Okun”), Jurnal Ekonomi Pembangunan Universitas Sriwijaya, Vol.12 No.2, hal 96-106.
Sukirno, S. (2004), Introduction to Macroeconomy Theory (Makroekonomi Teori Pengantar), Edisi Ketiga. Jakarta, PT Raja Grafindo Persada.
Umaru, A. & Z.A. Anono (2012), “An Empirical Analysis of The Relationshipshipship Between Unemployment and Inflation in Nigeria From !977-2009”, Journal Economics and Finance, Vol. 1, No.12.
Widarjono, A. (2013), Ekonometrika, Yogyakarta, UPP STIM YKPN.