Main Article Content
Abstract
Purpose – This study aim to analysze the impact of Russia Invassion on energy stock market indeks between G7 and Indonesia.
Methods – In this study, the method used is VECM on energy stock indices (Indonesia, UK, France, United States (US) and Japan) and adds one variable, namely the USD / IDR exchange rate.
Findings – The results of the study found that in the short term only the US Energy Stock Index has a positive effect on the Indonesian Energy Stock Index. In the long run, all variables affect the price fluctuations of the Indonesian Energy Stock Index
Implication – This research has implications for bilateral relations between Indonesia and the G7 that can affect the condition of Indonesia's energy stock index during the Russia-Ukraine war in the long term. Especially for the US Energy Stock Index is the main stock that can generate speculation among shareholders and traders in Indonesia.
Originality – This research contributes to projecting Indonesia's future economic conditions due to the Russia-Ukraine war.
Abstrak
Tujuan – Studi ini bertujuan untuk melihat adakah efek spillover resesi energi dan pangan yang terjadi di negara G7 terhadap Indonesia pada sektor harga indeks saham energi yang diakibatkan oleh perang Rusia-Ukraina.
Metode – Pada penelitian ini, metode yang digunakan adalah VECM pada indeks saham energi (Indonesia, Inggris, Prancis, Amerika Serikat(AS) dan Jepang) serta menambah satu variabel yaitu Kurs USD/IDR.
Temuan – Hasil studi menemukan jika dalam jangka pendek hanya Indeks Saham Energi AS yang berpengaruh positif terhadap Indeks Saham Energi Indonesia. Dalam jangka panjang, seluruh variabel berpengaruh terhadap fluktuasi harga Indeks Saham Energi Indonesia.
Implikasi – Penelitian ini berimplikasi pada hubungan bilateral yang antara Indonesia dan G7 dapat berpengaruh terhadap kondisi indeks saham energi Indonesia pada masa perang Rusia-Ukraina dalam jangka panjang. Terkhusus untuk Indeks Saham Energi AS merupakan saham utama yang dapat memunculkan spekulasi di antara pemegang saham dan trader di Indonesia.
Orisinalitas – Penelitian ini berkontribusi dalam memproyeksi kondisi ekonomi Indonesia kedepanya akibat dari perang Rusia-Ukraina
Keywords
Article Details
Copyright (c) 2023 Wira Anantama Putra, Diana Wijayanti
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.
References
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- Alexandri, M. B., Sari, P. I., & Sumadinata, W. S. (2022). Crude Oil Prices and Currency Exchange Rates ’ Impact on the Indonesian Energy Stock Market during the Covid-19 Pandemic. 12(4), 48–53.
- Arsyad, N. (2015). Integration between East and Southeast Asian equity markets. Journal of Financial Economic Policy, 7(2), 104–121. https://doi.org/10.1108/JFEP-02-2014-0012
- Basuki, A. T. (2019). Aplikasi VECM Dalam Ekonomi. 1–28.
- BBC NEWS. (2021). Joe Biden umumkan paket stimulus ekonomi AS US$1,9 triliun termasuk tunjangan hampir Rp20 juta per warga. 4.
- Bossman, A., & Gubareva, M. (2023). Asymmetric impacts of geopolitical risk on stock markets: A comparative analysis of the E7 and G7 equities during the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. Heliyon, e13626. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2023.e13626
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- Ekonomi, M. (2022). Negara Mitra Utama Bilateral Indonesia. 1–5.
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- Keuangan, K., & Fiskal, B. K. (2022). Dan 16. 14–17.
- Kompas. (2022). Imbas Perang Rusia-Ukraina, Dollar AS Menguat ke Level Tertinggi sejak 2020.
- Muhammad Madyan, H. A. & N. A. F. (2013). KETERKAITAN ANTAR BURSA EFEK DUNIA (STUDI KASUS PADA BURSA EFEK NEGARA MAJU DAN NEGARA BERKEMBANG). april, 2019, 85–97.
- Standard Chartered. (2018). The Standard Chartered Strengths Report.
- Yagi, M., & Managi, S. (2023). The spillover effects of rising energy prices following 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine. Economic Analysis and Policy, 77, 680–695. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eap.2022.12.025
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- Yousaf, I., Patel, R., & Yarovaya, L. (2022). Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance The reaction of G20 + stock markets to the Russia – Ukraine conflict ‘“ black-swan ”’ event : Evidence from event study approach. Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, 35, 100723. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbef.2022.100723
- Zakeri, B., Paulavets, K., Barreto-gomez, L., Echeverri, L. G., Pachauri, S., Boza-kiss, B., Zimm, C., Rogelj, J., Creutzig, F., Ürge-vorsatz, D., Victor, D. G., Bazilian, M. D., Fritz, S., Gielen, D., Mccollum, D. L., Srivastava, L., Hunt, J. D., & Pouya, S. (2022). Pandemic, War, and Global Energy Transitions. 1–24.
References
Agyei, S. K., Junior, P. O., Bossman, A., Asafo-Adjei, E., Asiamah, O., & Adam, A. M. (2022). Spillovers and contagion between BRIC and G7 markets: New evidence from time-frequency analysis. PLoS ONE, 17(7 July). https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0271088
Alam, K. E. dan S. D. (2023). ICP Oktober 2022 Naik Jadi US$89,10 per Barel, Dipengaruhi Kekhawatiran Berkurangnya Pasokan Minyak Mentah.
Alexandri, M. B., Sari, P. I., & Sumadinata, W. S. (2022). Crude Oil Prices and Currency Exchange Rates ’ Impact on the Indonesian Energy Stock Market during the Covid-19 Pandemic. 12(4), 48–53.
Arsyad, N. (2015). Integration between East and Southeast Asian equity markets. Journal of Financial Economic Policy, 7(2), 104–121. https://doi.org/10.1108/JFEP-02-2014-0012
Basuki, A. T. (2019). Aplikasi VECM Dalam Ekonomi. 1–28.
BBC NEWS. (2021). Joe Biden umumkan paket stimulus ekonomi AS US$1,9 triliun termasuk tunjangan hampir Rp20 juta per warga. 4.
Bossman, A., & Gubareva, M. (2023). Asymmetric impacts of geopolitical risk on stock markets: A comparative analysis of the E7 and G7 equities during the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. Heliyon, e13626. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2023.e13626
BPS. (2022a). Buletin STATISTIKA PERDAGANGAN LUAR NEGERI (Vol. 1, Issue 61).
BPS. (2022b). Neraca Arus Dana Indonesia Tahun 2017- 2021.
Ekonomi, M. (2022). Negara Mitra Utama Bilateral Indonesia. 1–5.
Indonesia Cetak Surplus Neraca Perdagangan dengan AS, Defisit dengan Tiongkok ENERGI. (n.d.).
Keuangan, K., & Fiskal, B. K. (2022). Dan 16. 14–17.
Kompas. (2022). Imbas Perang Rusia-Ukraina, Dollar AS Menguat ke Level Tertinggi sejak 2020.
Muhammad Madyan, H. A. & N. A. F. (2013). KETERKAITAN ANTAR BURSA EFEK DUNIA (STUDI KASUS PADA BURSA EFEK NEGARA MAJU DAN NEGARA BERKEMBANG). april, 2019, 85–97.
Standard Chartered. (2018). The Standard Chartered Strengths Report.
Yagi, M., & Managi, S. (2023). The spillover effects of rising energy prices following 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine. Economic Analysis and Policy, 77, 680–695. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eap.2022.12.025
Yang, L., & Hamori, S. (2014). Spillover effect of US monetary policy to ASEAN stock markets: Evidence from Indonesia, Singapore, and Thailand. Pacific Basin Finance Journal, 26, 145–155. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pacfin.2013.12.003
Yousaf, I., Patel, R., & Yarovaya, L. (2022). Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance The reaction of G20 + stock markets to the Russia – Ukraine conflict ‘“ black-swan ”’ event : Evidence from event study approach. Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, 35, 100723. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbef.2022.100723
Zakeri, B., Paulavets, K., Barreto-gomez, L., Echeverri, L. G., Pachauri, S., Boza-kiss, B., Zimm, C., Rogelj, J., Creutzig, F., Ürge-vorsatz, D., Victor, D. G., Bazilian, M. D., Fritz, S., Gielen, D., Mccollum, D. L., Srivastava, L., Hunt, J. D., & Pouya, S. (2022). Pandemic, War, and Global Energy Transitions. 1–24.