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Abstract
Abstrak
Penelitian ini menganalisis pengaruh produk domestik bruto (PDB), infiasi, tingkat bunga, dan kurs terhadap fluktuasi neraca perdagangan di Indonesia. Analisis dilakukan dengan menggunakan Error Correction Model (ECM). Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa dalam jangka panjang, PDB, kurs, dan inflasi mempengaruhi fluktuasi neraca perdagangan Indonesia. Paper ini juga menemukan bahwa dalam jangka pendek, hanya PDB dan inflasi yang secara signifikan mempengaruhi neraca perdagangan Indonesia.
Kata Kunci: Neraca perdagangan, PDB, infiasi, tingkat bunga, kurs, ECMJELclassification numbers: F14, F43.
Abstract
This paper analyzes the impact of gross domestic product (GDP), inflation, interest rate, and exchange rates on the fluctuation of Indonesian trade balance. This paper applies an Error Correction Model (ECM) to analyze the data. The results show that in the long run, GDP, exchange rates, and inflation influence the trade balance. It also finds that in the short run, the variables significantly influence Indonesian trade balance are GDP and inflation.
Kata Kunci: Trade balance, GDP, inflation, interest rates, exchange rates, ECM JEL classification numbers: F14, F43
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