Main Article Content
Abstract
General elections are pivotal moments in the dynamics of a country's democracy, including in Indonesia. Elections involve various political parties coalitioning to nominate their leaders. This study compares the coattail effect's impact on the 2019 and 2024 elections. The research method employs a normative approach with comparative, conceptual, and historical analyses. Secondary data were collected from various sources. The results indicate differences in the coattail effect's impact between the two elections. Although the popularity of presidential candidates can influence the vote share of their supporting political parties, the effects are not always consistent. In the 2024 election, Prabowo-Gibran won the majority vote, but the coattail effect only occurred for their main supporting party. Conversely, in the 2019 election, PDIP and PKB experienced a more significant coattail effect. The analysis also suggests that the ideal electoral design with a coattail effect involves changing the electoral system to a closed proportional system and removing the Presidential threshold. This study is crucial for understanding the political dynamics within Indonesia's democratic system.
Keywords
Article Details
Copyright (c) 2025 Fyna Rahmatika Elba, Enika Maya Oktavia, Dimas Nur Akbar Palatal, Pinto Kaganti Afwan Halim
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.
References
- Burden, Barry C, dan Gretchen Helmke. “The comparative study of split-ticket voting.” Electoral Studies 28, no. 1 (2009): 1–7.
- Cahyono, Alex, Anik Iftitah, Ananda Rizki Hidayatullah, Eko Yuliastuti, dan Weppy Susetiyo. “Analisis Kritis terhadap Penerapan Presidential threshold dalam Pemilihan Umum 2024: Perspektif Hukum Normatif di Indonesia.” Jurnal Supremasi, 2023, 1–14.
- Coffé, Hilde, dan Åsa von Schoultz. “How candidate characteristics matter: Candidate profiles, political sophistication, and vote choice.” Politics 41, no. 2 (2021): 137–55.
- Cunha Silva, Patrick, dan Brian F Crisp. “Unintended Institutional Interactions: Presidential Coattail and Gender Parity Quotas.” Political Research Quarterly 75, no. 3 (2022): 620–31.
- Effendi, Tonny Dian. “Estimating the multilevel coattail effect during the 2019 Indonesian election.” Asian Affairs: An American Review 49, no. 3 (2022): 140–65.
- Hanafi, Ridho Imawan. Pemilu Serentak 2019: Sistem Kepartaian dan Penguatan Sistem Presidensial. Yayasan Pustaka Obor Indonesia, 2021.
- Hanan, Djayadi, dan Deni Irvani. “The Coattail effect in multiparty Presidential elections: evidence from Indonesia.” Asian Survey 62, no. 2 (2022): 240–68.
- ———. “The Coattail effect in multiparty Presidential elections: evidence from Indonesia.” Asian Survey 62, no. 2 (2022): 240–68.
- Haruni, Catur Wido. “Presidential threshold in the Presidential Election from the Perspective of Constitutional Democracy and State of Law.” KnE Social Sciences, 2022, 408–21.
- Istania, Ratri. “Split Ticket Voting: Menumbuhkan Kegairahan Politik Lokal?” Jurnal Borneo Administrator 5, no. 1 (2009).
- Lembaga Penelitian Politik Indonesia. Dinamika Sosial Politik Pemilu Serentak 2019, 2021.
- Morhun, Mykola. “Model of redistribution of political parties supporters.” Dalam Modeling, Control and Information Technologies: Proceedings of International scientific and practical conference, 117–19, 2020.
- Ningsih, Surya. “Evaluasi Penyelenggaraan Pemilu Di Indonesia Dan Peningkatan Partisipasi Masyarakat Digital Untuk Mewujudkan Pemilu Berintegritas.” Dalam Prosiding Seminar Hukum Aktual Fakultas Hukum Universitas Islam Indonesia, 1:57–66, 2023.
- Nugroho, Rahmat Muhajir, Sudarsono Sudarsono, Istislam Istislam, dan Muchamad Ali Safa’at. “The Presidential Candidacy Threshold in Indonesia and Its Implications.” International Journal of Social Science Research and Review 5, no. 8 (2022): 457–65.
- Okthariza, Noory. “Explaining party fragmentation at district-level Indonesia.” Asian Journal of Comparative Politics 7, no. 4 (2022): 1008–24.
- PUTRI, INDAH AULIA. “PRESIDENTIAL THRESHOLD DAN PENGUATAN SISTEM PEMERINTAHAN PRESIDENSIL DI INDONESIA,” 2019.
- Raden, Sahran. “PENYERDEHANAAN SURAT SUARA PEMILU DALAM PRESFEKTIF SISTEM PEMILU DAN PEMERINTAHAN PRESIDENSIAL.” Qaumiyyah: Jurnal Hukum Tata Negara 2, no. 1 (2021): 22–45.
- Rahmayanti, Mubarik, dan Irfan Amir. “JURIDICAL ANALYSIS OF IMPLEMENTING THE PRESIDENTIAL THRESHOLD IN THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION OF INDONESIA.” Jurnal Al-Dustur 4, no. 1 (2021): 83–107.
- Reilly, Benjamin. “Electoral and political party reform.” Dalam Indonesia: Democracy and the promise of good governance, 41–54. Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, 2007.
- Romansa, Davit. “COATTAIL EFFECT STRATEGY OF GERINDRA PARTY IN 2019 CONCURRENT ELECTION.” Revista UNISCI, no. 53 (2020).
- Sugiharto, Imawan, dan Erwin Aditya Pratama. “Examining the Legal Impact of Presidential threshold Implementation in the 2024 Presidential Election.” Jurnal Dinamika Hukum 22, no. 2 (2022): 430–42.
- Sukmawan, Denny Indra, dan Syaugi Pratama. “Critical Review of the Constitutional Court’s Decision on the Presidential threshold: Tinjauan Kritis Mengenai Putusan Mahkamah Konstitusi tentang Ambang Batas Pencalonan Presiden.” Jurnal Konstitusi 20, no. 4 (2023): 556–75.
- Ventura, Tiago. “Do mayors matter? Reverse coattail on congressional elections in Brazil.” Electoral Studies 69 (2021): 102242.
- Wahyudi, Heri, dan Meita Istianda. “PELAKSANAAN PEMILIHAN UMUM SERENTAK 2019 (PEMILAHAN UMUM PRESIDEN DAN ANGGOTA LEGISLATIF.” Prosiding Konferensi Nasional Sosiologi (PKNS) 1, no. 1 (2023): 229–46.
- ———. “PELAKSANAAN PEMILIHAN UMUM SERENTAK 2019 (PEMILIHAN UMUM PRESIDEN DAN ANGGOTA LEGISLATIF).” Konferensi Nasional Sosiologi IX APSSI 2022 Balikpapan, 2022.
- Wisnujati, Ganis, dan Yuwanto Fitriyah. “Marketing Politik Partai Gerindra Untuk Pemenangan Pemilu Legislatif Kabupaten Kebumen Tahun 2019.” PAN 2, no. 4 (t.t.): 4.
- Wutoy, Maichel, Eliyunus Waruwu, Ayler Beniah Ndraha, dan Alwi Al Hadad. “Application of the Presidential threshold Concept in the Presidential and Vice-Presidential Election System and its Impact on the Indonesian Constitutional System.” Journal of Digitainability, Realism & Mastery (DREAM) 1, no. 03 (2022): 46–55.
- Zucco, Cesar, dan Timothy J Power. “Fragmentation without cleavages? Endogenous fractionalization in the Brazilian party system.” Comparative Politics 53, no. 3 (2021): 477–500.
References
Burden, Barry C, dan Gretchen Helmke. “The comparative study of split-ticket voting.” Electoral Studies 28, no. 1 (2009): 1–7.
Cahyono, Alex, Anik Iftitah, Ananda Rizki Hidayatullah, Eko Yuliastuti, dan Weppy Susetiyo. “Analisis Kritis terhadap Penerapan Presidential threshold dalam Pemilihan Umum 2024: Perspektif Hukum Normatif di Indonesia.” Jurnal Supremasi, 2023, 1–14.
Coffé, Hilde, dan Åsa von Schoultz. “How candidate characteristics matter: Candidate profiles, political sophistication, and vote choice.” Politics 41, no. 2 (2021): 137–55.
Cunha Silva, Patrick, dan Brian F Crisp. “Unintended Institutional Interactions: Presidential Coattail and Gender Parity Quotas.” Political Research Quarterly 75, no. 3 (2022): 620–31.
Effendi, Tonny Dian. “Estimating the multilevel coattail effect during the 2019 Indonesian election.” Asian Affairs: An American Review 49, no. 3 (2022): 140–65.
Hanafi, Ridho Imawan. Pemilu Serentak 2019: Sistem Kepartaian dan Penguatan Sistem Presidensial. Yayasan Pustaka Obor Indonesia, 2021.
Hanan, Djayadi, dan Deni Irvani. “The Coattail effect in multiparty Presidential elections: evidence from Indonesia.” Asian Survey 62, no. 2 (2022): 240–68.
———. “The Coattail effect in multiparty Presidential elections: evidence from Indonesia.” Asian Survey 62, no. 2 (2022): 240–68.
Haruni, Catur Wido. “Presidential threshold in the Presidential Election from the Perspective of Constitutional Democracy and State of Law.” KnE Social Sciences, 2022, 408–21.
Istania, Ratri. “Split Ticket Voting: Menumbuhkan Kegairahan Politik Lokal?” Jurnal Borneo Administrator 5, no. 1 (2009).
Lembaga Penelitian Politik Indonesia. Dinamika Sosial Politik Pemilu Serentak 2019, 2021.
Morhun, Mykola. “Model of redistribution of political parties supporters.” Dalam Modeling, Control and Information Technologies: Proceedings of International scientific and practical conference, 117–19, 2020.
Ningsih, Surya. “Evaluasi Penyelenggaraan Pemilu Di Indonesia Dan Peningkatan Partisipasi Masyarakat Digital Untuk Mewujudkan Pemilu Berintegritas.” Dalam Prosiding Seminar Hukum Aktual Fakultas Hukum Universitas Islam Indonesia, 1:57–66, 2023.
Nugroho, Rahmat Muhajir, Sudarsono Sudarsono, Istislam Istislam, dan Muchamad Ali Safa’at. “The Presidential Candidacy Threshold in Indonesia and Its Implications.” International Journal of Social Science Research and Review 5, no. 8 (2022): 457–65.
Okthariza, Noory. “Explaining party fragmentation at district-level Indonesia.” Asian Journal of Comparative Politics 7, no. 4 (2022): 1008–24.
PUTRI, INDAH AULIA. “PRESIDENTIAL THRESHOLD DAN PENGUATAN SISTEM PEMERINTAHAN PRESIDENSIL DI INDONESIA,” 2019.
Raden, Sahran. “PENYERDEHANAAN SURAT SUARA PEMILU DALAM PRESFEKTIF SISTEM PEMILU DAN PEMERINTAHAN PRESIDENSIAL.” Qaumiyyah: Jurnal Hukum Tata Negara 2, no. 1 (2021): 22–45.
Rahmayanti, Mubarik, dan Irfan Amir. “JURIDICAL ANALYSIS OF IMPLEMENTING THE PRESIDENTIAL THRESHOLD IN THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION OF INDONESIA.” Jurnal Al-Dustur 4, no. 1 (2021): 83–107.
Reilly, Benjamin. “Electoral and political party reform.” Dalam Indonesia: Democracy and the promise of good governance, 41–54. Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, 2007.
Romansa, Davit. “COATTAIL EFFECT STRATEGY OF GERINDRA PARTY IN 2019 CONCURRENT ELECTION.” Revista UNISCI, no. 53 (2020).
Sugiharto, Imawan, dan Erwin Aditya Pratama. “Examining the Legal Impact of Presidential threshold Implementation in the 2024 Presidential Election.” Jurnal Dinamika Hukum 22, no. 2 (2022): 430–42.
Sukmawan, Denny Indra, dan Syaugi Pratama. “Critical Review of the Constitutional Court’s Decision on the Presidential threshold: Tinjauan Kritis Mengenai Putusan Mahkamah Konstitusi tentang Ambang Batas Pencalonan Presiden.” Jurnal Konstitusi 20, no. 4 (2023): 556–75.
Ventura, Tiago. “Do mayors matter? Reverse coattail on congressional elections in Brazil.” Electoral Studies 69 (2021): 102242.
Wahyudi, Heri, dan Meita Istianda. “PELAKSANAAN PEMILIHAN UMUM SERENTAK 2019 (PEMILAHAN UMUM PRESIDEN DAN ANGGOTA LEGISLATIF.” Prosiding Konferensi Nasional Sosiologi (PKNS) 1, no. 1 (2023): 229–46.
———. “PELAKSANAAN PEMILIHAN UMUM SERENTAK 2019 (PEMILIHAN UMUM PRESIDEN DAN ANGGOTA LEGISLATIF).” Konferensi Nasional Sosiologi IX APSSI 2022 Balikpapan, 2022.
Wisnujati, Ganis, dan Yuwanto Fitriyah. “Marketing Politik Partai Gerindra Untuk Pemenangan Pemilu Legislatif Kabupaten Kebumen Tahun 2019.” PAN 2, no. 4 (t.t.): 4.
Wutoy, Maichel, Eliyunus Waruwu, Ayler Beniah Ndraha, dan Alwi Al Hadad. “Application of the Presidential threshold Concept in the Presidential and Vice-Presidential Election System and its Impact on the Indonesian Constitutional System.” Journal of Digitainability, Realism & Mastery (DREAM) 1, no. 03 (2022): 46–55.
Zucco, Cesar, dan Timothy J Power. “Fragmentation without cleavages? Endogenous fractionalization in the Brazilian party system.” Comparative Politics 53, no. 3 (2021): 477–500.