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Abstract
Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui pengukuran value at risk (VaR) sebagai alat analisis risiko menggunakan metode simulasi monte carlo pada perdagangan berjangka emas dan minyak mentah yang dipialangkan oleh Valbury. PT Valbury Asia Futures (PT VAF) Semarang adalah perusahaan pialang berjangka yang memiliki fokus pada perdagangan kontrak berjangka di pasar keuangan, komoditas dan mata uang. Valbury Asia Futures mempekerjakan tim financial consultant untuk melakukan analisis pasar perdagangan berjangka. Penelitian ini menggunakan metode kuantitatif dan teknik analisis data menggunakan simulasi Monte Carlo. Metode simulasi Monte Carlo membuat simulasi perubahan nilai dengan menggunakan sampel acak. Distribusi dan parameter dapat digunakan untuk menghasilkan ribuan simulasi skenario faktor risiko sehingga dapat menentukan nilai VaR dengan tingkat kepercayaan tertentu. Penulis berharap dapat memperoleh pemahaman lebih dalam tentang analisis risiko pasar dan perdagangan berjangka. Hasil dari laporan ini menunjukkan bahwa potensi kerugian maksimum dari perdagangan berjangka pada komoditas emas lebih kecil dibandingkan pada komoditas minyak mentah. Penulis merekomendasikan value at risk sebagai alat analisis risiko untuk mengetahui potensi kerugian maksimum dalam perdagangan kontrak berjangka.
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Copyright (c) 2023 Irfan Rizaldi, Katiya Nahda
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References
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References
AlKhazali, O.M. et al. (2021) “A comparison of the gold-oil portfolio and oil portfolio: A stochastic dominance approach,” Finance Research Letters, 40, hal. 101670. Tersedia pada: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2020.101670.
Auer, M. (2018) Hands-On Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall: A Practical Primer. Cham: Springer International Publishing AG.
Bahri, S. (2018) Implementasi Hedging pada Bursa Komoditi Emas di Indonesia Berdasarkan Perspektif Ekonomi Syariah. UIN Syarif Hidayatullah Jakarta. Tersedia pada: https://repository.uinjkt.ac.id/dspace/bitstream/123456789/41043/1/SYAMSUL BAHRI-FEB.pdf.
Barbu, A. dan Zhu, S.-C. (2020) Monte Carlo Methods. 1 ed. Singapore: Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd.
Best, P. (2000) Implementing Value at Risk. Chichester: John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
Birken, E.G. (2022) Return On Investment (ROI), Forbes. Diedit oleh B. Curry. Tersedia pada: https://www.forbes.com/advisor/investing/roi-return-on-investment/ (Diakses: 26 Mei 2023).
Boyle, P.P. (1977) “Options: A Monte Carlo approach,” Journal of Financial Economics, 4(3), hal. 323–338. Tersedia pada: https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-405X(77)90005-8.
CFI Team (2023) Market Risk: The uncertainty associated with any investment decision, Corporate Finance Institute. Tersedia pada: https://corporatefinanceinstitute.com/resources/career-map/sell-side/capital-markets/market-risk/ (Diakses: 5 Mei 2023).
Chance, D.M. (2019) Financial Risk Management: An End User Perspective. New Jersey: WSPC.
Fernando, J. (2023) Futures in Stock Market: Definition, Example, and How to Trade, Investopedia. Tersedia pada: https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/futures.asp (Diakses: 5 Mei 2023).
Gilli, M., Maringer, D. dan Schumann, E. (2011) Numerical Methods and Optimization in Finance. Waltham: Elsevier Inc.
Junttila, J., Pesonen, J. dan Raatikainen, J. (2018) “Commodity market based hedging against stock market risk in times of financial crisis: The case of crude oil and gold,” Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, 56, hal. 255–280. Tersedia pada: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.intfin.2018.01.002.
Kumar, R. (2017) Strategic Financial Management Casebook. 1 ed. London: Elsevier Inc.
Laws, J. (2018) Essentials of Financial Management. Liverpool: Liverpool University Press. Tersedia pada: http://www.jstor.org/stable/j.ctvt6rjjs.
Nuryadi et al. (2017) Dasar-Dasar Statistik Penelitian. Bantul: SIBUKU MEDIA.
Picardo, E. (2022) Investing Explained: Types of Investments and How To Get Started, Investopedia. Tersedia pada: https://www.investopedia.com/terms/i/investing.asp (Diakses: 5 Mei 2023).
Ruppert, D. (2004) Statistics and Finance: An Introduction. New York: Springer. Tersedia pada: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4419-6876-0.
Salisu, A.A., Vo, X.V. dan Lawal, A. (2021) “Hedging oil price risk with gold during COVID-19 pandemic,” Resources Policy, 70, hal. 101897. Tersedia pada: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resourpol.2020.101897.
Schofield, N.C. (2021) Commodity Derivatives: Markets and Applications. 2 ed. John Wiley & Sons, Inc.: Chichester.
Sofat, R. dan Hiro, P. (2016) Strategic Financial Management. 2 ed. New Delhi: PHI Learning Private Limited.