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Abstract
This study examines the use of three models of financial distress prediction namely Altman Z-Score, Springate S-Score and Zmijewski X-Score on the Tobacco Companies Listed in the Indonesia Stock Exchange. Further, the study tests the the accuracy of the three models to predict the bankruptcy of those companies. The sample consists of 5 firms with 25 observations for each model. To obtain the level of accuracy, the study categories the firms into distress or non-stress firms by comparing between return on equity (ROE) and Bank Indonesia (BI) rate. This study finds that the Springate S-Score model is the most accurate models to predict the bankruptcy of the Tobacco companies listed in the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) by 80%.
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Copyright (c) 2022 Hasna Kurnia Ulfah, Abdul Moin
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References
- Altman, E.I. (1968) “Financial Ratios, Discriminant Analysis and The Prediction of Corporate Bankrupty,” The Journal of Finance, 23(4), pp. 589–609. doi:https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.1968.tb00843.x.
- Andriani, F. and Sihombing, P. (2021) “Comparative Analysis of Bankruption Prediction Models in Property and Real Estate Sector Companies Listed on the IDX 2017-2019,” European Journal of Business and Management Research, 6(1), pp. 170–173. doi:10.24018/ejbmr.2021.6.1.730.
- Arum, D.P. and Handayani, S.R. (2018) “Analisis Perbandingan Metode Altman (Z-Score), Springate (S-Score), Dan Zmijewski (X-Score) Dalam Memprediksi Kebangkrutan Perusahaan (Studi Pada Perusahaan Tekstil Dan Garmen Yang Terdaftar Di Bursa Efek Indonesia Periode 2012-2016),” Jurnal Administrasi Bisnis, 1(60), pp. 109–118. Available at: http://administrasibisnis.studentjournal.ub.ac.id/index.php/jab/article/view/2487.
- Cındık, Z. and Armutlulu, I.H. (2021) “A revision of Altman Z-Score model and a comparative analysis of Turkish companies’ financial distress prediction,” National Accounting Review, 3(2), pp. 237–255. doi:10.3934/nar.2021012.
- Edwards, M. (2021) “Shareholder Wealth Maximization: A Schelling Point,” St. John’s Law Review, 94(3), pp. 671–714. Available at: https://scholarship.law.stjohns.edu/lawreview/vol94/iss3/3/.
- Hartaroe, B.P., Mardani, R.M. and Abs, M.K. (2016) “Pengaruh Kepercayaan, Kemudahan Dan Kualitas Informasi Transaksi Terhadap Keputusan Pembelian Online Pada Situs Bukalapak (Study Kasus Pada Mahasiswa Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis UNISMA Yang Pernah Melakukan Pembelian Online Di Situs Bukalapak.com),” e – Jurnal Riset Manajemen PRODI MANAJEMEN, 1009, pp. 82–94.
- Husein, M.F. and Pambekti, G.T. (2014) “Precision of the models of Altman, Springate, Zmijewski, and Grover for predicting the financial distress,” Journal of Economics, Business & Accountancy Ventura, 17(3), pp. 405–416. doi:10.14414/jebav.v17i3.362.
- Indonesia Stock Exchange (2021) Company Profiles, Indonesia Stock Exchange. Available at: https://www.idx.co.id/en-us/listed-companies/company-profiles/ (Accessed: July 23, 2022).
- J., A.N. and T., P. (2015) “The Application of Altman’s Z-Score Model in Predicting Bankruptcy: Evidence from the Trading Sector in Sri Lanka,” International Journal of Business and Management, 10(12), pp. 269–275. doi:10.5539/ijbm.v10n12p269.
- Koto, M., Pulungan, D.R. and Hartini, T. (2018) “Metode Springate Dalam Analisa Potensi Kebangkrutan Perusahaan Properti Di Indonesia,” in Prosiding Seminar Nasional Multidisiplin Ilmu Universitas Asahan 2018. Kisaran: Universitas Asahan, pp. 242–249. Available at: file:///C:/Users/acer/Downloads/Murviana Koto.pdf.
- Meiliawati, A. and Isharijadi, I. (2016) “Analisis Perbandingan Model Springate Dan Altman Z Score Terhadap Potensi Financial Distress (Studi Kasus Pada Perusahaan Sektor Kosmetik Yang Terdaftar Di Bursa Efek Indonesia),” Assets: Jurnal Akuntansi dan Pendidikan, 5(1), pp. 15–24. doi:10.25273/jap.v5i1.1183.
- Meita, E.W.F. (2015) “Analisis Penggunaan Metode Altman, Springate, dan Zmijewski dalam Memprediksi Kebangkrutan Perusahaan Pertambangan Batubara Periode 2012-2014,” Jurnal Akuntansi Akunesa, 3(3), pp. 1–21. Available at: https://jurnalmahasiswa.unesa.ac.id/index.php/jurnal-akuntansi/article/view/13713.
- Prasetianingtias, E. and Kusumowati, D. (2019) “Analisis Perbandingan Model Altman, Grover, Zmijewski Dan Springate Sebagai Prediksi Financial Distress,” Jurnal Akuntansi dan Perpajakan, 5(1), pp. 9–14. doi:10.26905/ap.v5i1.3072.
- Siekelova, A., Kovalova, E. and Ciurlău, F.C. (2019) “Prediction Financial Stability of Romanian Production Companies Though Altman Z-Score,” Ekonomicko-manazerske spektrum, 13(2), pp. 89–97. Available at: https://ems.uniza.sk/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/EMS_2_2019_09_Siekelova_Kovalova_Ciurlau.pdf.
- Springate, G.L. V. (1978) Predicting the Possibility of Failure in a Canadian Firm: A Discriminant Analysis. Simon Fraser University. Available at: https://books.google.co.id/books?id=3Vq7PgAACAAJ.
- Tanjung, P.R.S. (2020) “Comparative Analysis of Altman Z-Score, Springate, Zmijewski and Ohlson Models in Predicting Financial Distress,” EPRA International Journal of Multidisciplinary Research (IJMR)-Peer Reviewed Journal, 6(3), pp. 126–137. doi:10.36713/epra4162.
- Zmijewski, M.E. (1984) Essays on Corporate Bankruptcy. State University of New York at Buffalo.
References
Altman, E.I. (1968) “Financial Ratios, Discriminant Analysis and The Prediction of Corporate Bankrupty,” The Journal of Finance, 23(4), pp. 589–609. doi:https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.1968.tb00843.x.
Andriani, F. and Sihombing, P. (2021) “Comparative Analysis of Bankruption Prediction Models in Property and Real Estate Sector Companies Listed on the IDX 2017-2019,” European Journal of Business and Management Research, 6(1), pp. 170–173. doi:10.24018/ejbmr.2021.6.1.730.
Arum, D.P. and Handayani, S.R. (2018) “Analisis Perbandingan Metode Altman (Z-Score), Springate (S-Score), Dan Zmijewski (X-Score) Dalam Memprediksi Kebangkrutan Perusahaan (Studi Pada Perusahaan Tekstil Dan Garmen Yang Terdaftar Di Bursa Efek Indonesia Periode 2012-2016),” Jurnal Administrasi Bisnis, 1(60), pp. 109–118. Available at: http://administrasibisnis.studentjournal.ub.ac.id/index.php/jab/article/view/2487.
Cındık, Z. and Armutlulu, I.H. (2021) “A revision of Altman Z-Score model and a comparative analysis of Turkish companies’ financial distress prediction,” National Accounting Review, 3(2), pp. 237–255. doi:10.3934/nar.2021012.
Edwards, M. (2021) “Shareholder Wealth Maximization: A Schelling Point,” St. John’s Law Review, 94(3), pp. 671–714. Available at: https://scholarship.law.stjohns.edu/lawreview/vol94/iss3/3/.
Hartaroe, B.P., Mardani, R.M. and Abs, M.K. (2016) “Pengaruh Kepercayaan, Kemudahan Dan Kualitas Informasi Transaksi Terhadap Keputusan Pembelian Online Pada Situs Bukalapak (Study Kasus Pada Mahasiswa Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis UNISMA Yang Pernah Melakukan Pembelian Online Di Situs Bukalapak.com),” e – Jurnal Riset Manajemen PRODI MANAJEMEN, 1009, pp. 82–94.
Husein, M.F. and Pambekti, G.T. (2014) “Precision of the models of Altman, Springate, Zmijewski, and Grover for predicting the financial distress,” Journal of Economics, Business & Accountancy Ventura, 17(3), pp. 405–416. doi:10.14414/jebav.v17i3.362.
Indonesia Stock Exchange (2021) Company Profiles, Indonesia Stock Exchange. Available at: https://www.idx.co.id/en-us/listed-companies/company-profiles/ (Accessed: July 23, 2022).
J., A.N. and T., P. (2015) “The Application of Altman’s Z-Score Model in Predicting Bankruptcy: Evidence from the Trading Sector in Sri Lanka,” International Journal of Business and Management, 10(12), pp. 269–275. doi:10.5539/ijbm.v10n12p269.
Koto, M., Pulungan, D.R. and Hartini, T. (2018) “Metode Springate Dalam Analisa Potensi Kebangkrutan Perusahaan Properti Di Indonesia,” in Prosiding Seminar Nasional Multidisiplin Ilmu Universitas Asahan 2018. Kisaran: Universitas Asahan, pp. 242–249. Available at: file:///C:/Users/acer/Downloads/Murviana Koto.pdf.
Meiliawati, A. and Isharijadi, I. (2016) “Analisis Perbandingan Model Springate Dan Altman Z Score Terhadap Potensi Financial Distress (Studi Kasus Pada Perusahaan Sektor Kosmetik Yang Terdaftar Di Bursa Efek Indonesia),” Assets: Jurnal Akuntansi dan Pendidikan, 5(1), pp. 15–24. doi:10.25273/jap.v5i1.1183.
Meita, E.W.F. (2015) “Analisis Penggunaan Metode Altman, Springate, dan Zmijewski dalam Memprediksi Kebangkrutan Perusahaan Pertambangan Batubara Periode 2012-2014,” Jurnal Akuntansi Akunesa, 3(3), pp. 1–21. Available at: https://jurnalmahasiswa.unesa.ac.id/index.php/jurnal-akuntansi/article/view/13713.
Prasetianingtias, E. and Kusumowati, D. (2019) “Analisis Perbandingan Model Altman, Grover, Zmijewski Dan Springate Sebagai Prediksi Financial Distress,” Jurnal Akuntansi dan Perpajakan, 5(1), pp. 9–14. doi:10.26905/ap.v5i1.3072.
Siekelova, A., Kovalova, E. and Ciurlău, F.C. (2019) “Prediction Financial Stability of Romanian Production Companies Though Altman Z-Score,” Ekonomicko-manazerske spektrum, 13(2), pp. 89–97. Available at: https://ems.uniza.sk/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/EMS_2_2019_09_Siekelova_Kovalova_Ciurlau.pdf.
Springate, G.L. V. (1978) Predicting the Possibility of Failure in a Canadian Firm: A Discriminant Analysis. Simon Fraser University. Available at: https://books.google.co.id/books?id=3Vq7PgAACAAJ.
Tanjung, P.R.S. (2020) “Comparative Analysis of Altman Z-Score, Springate, Zmijewski and Ohlson Models in Predicting Financial Distress,” EPRA International Journal of Multidisciplinary Research (IJMR)-Peer Reviewed Journal, 6(3), pp. 126–137. doi:10.36713/epra4162.
Zmijewski, M.E. (1984) Essays on Corporate Bankruptcy. State University of New York at Buffalo.