Main Article Content
Abstract
Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui tingkat akurasi serta tingkat error masing-masing model Altman, Zmijewski, Grover, dan Ohlson pada perusahaan go public tahun 2015-2020. Penentuan sampel pada penelitian ini menggunakan purposive sampling. Sampel dibagi menjadi 53 sampel financial distress dan 180 sampel non-financial distress, yang terdiri dari 15 perusahaan terprediksi financial distress dengan masing-masing memiliki dua perusahaan sehat sejenis sebagai pembanding. Teknik analisis data menggunakan model analisis Altman revisi dan modifikasi, Zmijewski, Grover, dan Ohlson. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan mode Grover sebesar 88%, model Altman 85%, model Zmijewski 77%, dan model Ohlson 37%. Kesimpulan pada perusahaan ini model Grover menjadi model terbaik yang dapat digunakan untuk menganalisis financial distress pada perusahaan go public.
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Copyright (c) 2023 Adelia Rizky Safitri, Zaenal Arifin
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.
References
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- Almilia, L.S. dan Kristijadi (2003) “Analisis Rasio Keuangan untuk Memprediksi Kondisi Financial Distress Perusahaan Manufaktur yang Terdaftar Di Bursa Efek Indonesia,” Jurnal Akuntansi dan Auditing Indonesia, 7(2), hal. 183–210. Tersedia pada: https://journal.uii.ac.id/JAAI/article/view/846.
- Altman, E.I. (1968) “Financial Ratios, Discriminant Analysis and the Prediction of Corporate Bankruptcy,” The Journal of Finance, 23(4), hal. 589–609. Tersedia pada: https://doi.org/10.2307/2978933.
- Altman, E.I. dan Hotchkiss, E. (2011) Corporate Financial Distress and Bankruptcy: Predict and Avoid Bankruptcy, Analyze and Invest in Distressed Debt. 3 ed. Hoboken: John Wiley & Sons Inc.
- Ashraf, S., Félix, E.G.S. dan Serrasqueiro, Z. (2019) “Do Traditional Financial Distress Prediction Models Predict the Early Warning Signs of Financial Distress?,” Journal of Risk and Financial Management, 12(2), hal. 55. Tersedia pada: https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm12020055.
- Aviantara, R. (2023) “Scoring the financial distress and the financial statement fraud of Garuda Indonesia with «DDCC» as the financial solutions,” Journal of Modelling in Management, 18(1), hal. 1–16. Tersedia pada: https://doi.org/10.1108/JM2-01-2020-0017.
- Beaver, W.H. (1966) “Financial Ratios As Predictors of Failure,” Journal of Accounting Research, 4, hal. 71–111. Tersedia pada: https://doi.org/10.2307/2490171.
- Brigham, E.F. dan Houston, J.F. (2019) Fundamentals of Financial Management. 15 ed. Boston: Cengage Learning, Inc.
- Buzgurescu, O.L.P. dan Elena, N. (2020) “Bankruptcy Risk Prediction in Assuring the Financial Performance of Romanian Industrial Companies,” in S. Grima, E. Özen, dan H. Boz (ed.) Contemporary Issues in Business Economics and Finance. Emerald Publishing Limited (Contemporary Studies in Economic and Financial Analysis), hal. 19–28. Tersedia pada: https://doi.org/10.1108/S1569-375920200000104003.
- Calandro, J. (2007) “Considering the utility of Altman’s score as a strategic assessment and performance management tool,” Strategy & Leadership, 35(5), hal. 37–43. Tersedia pada: https://doi.org/10.1108/10878570710819206.
- Carolina, V., Marpaung, E.I. dan Pratama, D. (2017) “Analisis Rasio Keuangan untuk Memprediksi Kondisi Financial Distress (Studi Empiris pada Perusahaan Manufaktur yang Terdaftar di Bursa Efek Indonesia Periode 2014-2015),” Jurnal Akuntansi Maranatha, 9(2), hal. 137–145. Tersedia pada: https://doi.org/10.28932/jam.v9i2.481.
- Darsono dan Ashari (2006) Pedoman Praktis Memahami Laporan Keuangan: (Tip bagi Investor, Direksi, dan Pemegang Saham). Yogyakarta: CV. Andi Offset.
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- Elloumi, F. dan Gueyié, J. (2001) “Financial distress and corporate governance: an empirical analysis,” Corporate Governance: The international journal of business in society, 1(1), hal. 15–23. Tersedia pada: https://doi.org/10.1108/14720700110389548.
- Elviani, S. et al. (2020) “The Accuracy of the Altman, Ohlson, Springate and Zmejewski Models in Bankruptcy Predicting Trade Sector Companies in Indonesia,” Budapest International Research and Critics Institute (BIRCI-Journal) : Humanities and Social Sciences, 3(1), hal. 334–347. Tersedia pada: https://doi.org/10.33258/birci.v3i1.777.
- Fadrul, F. dan Ridawati, R. (2020) “Analysis of Method Used to Predict Financial Distress Potential in Pulp and Paper Companies of Indonesia,” International Journal of Economics Development Research (IJEDR), 1(1), hal. 57–69. Tersedia pada: https://doi.org/10.37385/ijedr.v1i1.29.
- Febriana, S.K. dan Wahidahwati, W. (2018) “Analisis Perbandingan Model Altman Z-Score, Zmijewski, Ohlson, dan Grover dalam Memprediksi Financial Distress,” Jurnal Ilmu dan Riset Akuntansi, 7(9), hal. 1–22. Tersedia pada: http://jurnalmahasiswa.stiesia.ac.id/index.php/jira/article/view/1131.
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- Komarudin, Syafnita dan Ilmiani, A. (2019) “Analisis Komparasi Prediksi Financial Distress Metode Grover, Altman, Springate, Zmijewski, dan Ohlson pada Perusahaan Pertambangan di BEI,” Jurnal Ekonomi dan Bisnis, 22(2), hal. 36–43. Tersedia pada: https://jurnal.unikal.ac.id/index.php/jebi/article/view/991.
- Kusuma, R. (2017) Analisis pengukuran financial distress dengan model analisis Altman, Springate, Zmijewski, Ohlson, dan Grover sebagai early warning system: Studi kasus pada perusahaan sektor pertambangan batubara yang terdaftar di Bursa Efek Indonesia. Universitas Islam Negeri Maulana Malik Ibrahim Malang. Tersedia pada: http://etheses.uin-malang.ac.id/11369/.
- Laurila, K. (2020) Accuracy comparison of accounting-based bankruptcy prediction models of Springate (1978), Ohlson (1980) and Altman (2000) to US manufacturing companies 1990-2018. Aalto University School of Business. Tersedia pada: https://aaltodoc.aalto.fi/handle/123456789/42858.
- Matturungan, N.H., Purwanto, B. dan Irwanto, A.K. (2017) “Manufacturing Company Bankruptcy Prediction in Indonesia With Altman Z-Score Model,” Jurnal Aplikasi Manajemen, 15(1), hal. 18–24. Tersedia pada: https://doi.org/10.18202/jam23026332.15.1.03.
- Ogachi, D. et al. (2020) “Corporate Bankruptcy Prediction Model, a Special Focus on Listed Companies in Kenya,” Journal of Risk and Financial Management, 13(3), hal. 47. Tersedia pada: https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm13030047.
- Prasetianingtias, E. dan Kusumowati, D. (2019) “Analisis Perbandingan Model Altman, Grover, Zmijewski dan Springate Sebagai Prediksi Financial Distress,” Jurnal Akuntansi dan Perpajakan, 5(1), hal. 9–14. Tersedia pada: https://doi.org/10.26905/ap.v5i1.3072.
- Presiden RI (2004) Undang-undang (UU) Nomor 37 Tahun 2004 tentang Kepailitan Dan Penundaan Kewajiban Pembayaran Utang. Indonesia: JDIH BPK RI Database Peraturan. Tersedia pada: https://peraturan.bpk.go.id/Details/40784/uu-no-37-tahun-2004.
- Qiu, W., Rudkin, S. dan Dłotko, P. (2020) “Refining understanding of corporate failure through a topological data analysis mapping of Altman’s Z-score model,” Expert Systems with Applications, 156, hal. 113475. Tersedia pada: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eswa.2020.113475.
- Stankevičienė, J. dan Prazdeckaitė, G. (2021) “Analysis of the accuracy of bankruptcy prediction models: the case of Lithuanian companies,” Science and Studies of Accounting and Finance: Problems and Perspectives, 15(1), hal. 44–53. Tersedia pada: https://doi.org/10.15544/ssaf.2021.05.
- Subramanyam, K.R. dan Wild, J.J. (2010) Analisis Laporan Keuangan: Financial Statement Analysis. 10 ed. Jakarta: Salemba Empat.
- Suwaydan, M. (2003) “The Ratio Model Versus the Cash Flow Model, and the Prediction of Bankruptcy: An Empirical Examination,” Abhath Al-Yarmouk Humanities and Social Sciences - AYHSS, 19(2B), hal. 89–105. Tersedia pada: http://repository.yu.edu.jo/handle/123456789/3489.
- Syamni, G., Majid, M.S.A. dan Siregar, W.V. (2018) “Bankruptcy Prediction Models and Stock Prices of the Coal Mining Industry in Indonesia,” Etikonomi, 17(1), hal. 57–68. Tersedia pada: https://doi.org/10.15408/etk.v17i1.6559.
- Utama, B.I. (2018) ANALISIS KEAKURATAN MODEL OHLSON DALAM MEMPREDIKSI KEBANGKRUTAN (BANKRUPTCY) (Studi pada Perusahaan Delisting yang terdaftar di BEI periode 2013-2017). Universitas Brawijaya. Tersedia pada: http://repository.ub.ac.id/id/eprint/161973/1/Bayu Insan Utama.pdf.
- Wahidah, M. (2021) Analisis financial distress dengan model altman, zmijewski, grover, springate, ohlson, dan ca-score untuk memprediksi kebangkrutan pada perusahaan perbankan yang terdaftar di BEI periode 2016-2020. Universitas Islam Negeri Maulana Malik Ibrahim Malang. Tersedia pada: http://etheses.uin-malang.ac.id/30217/.
- Whitaker, R.B. (1999) “The early stages of financial distress,” Journal of Economics and Finance, 23(2), hal. 123–132. Tersedia pada: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02745946.
- Yuliastry, E.C. dan Wirakusuma, M.G. (2014) “Analisis Financial Distress dengan Metode Z-Score Altman, Springate, Zmijewski,” E-Jurnal Akuntansi Universitas Udayana, 6(3), hal. 379–389. Tersedia pada: https://ojs.unud.ac.id/index.php/Akuntansi/article/view/8336.
- Zmijewski, M.E. (1984) “Methodological Issues Related to the Estimation of Financial Distress Prediction Models,” Journal of Accounting Research, 22, hal. 59–82. Tersedia pada: https://doi.org/10.2307/2490859.
References
Agarwal, V. dan Taffler, R.J. (2007) “Twenty‐five years of the Taffler z‐score model: Does it really have predictive ability?,” Accounting and Business Research, 37(4), hal. 285–300. Tersedia pada: https://doi.org/10.1080/00014788.2007.9663313.
Almilia, L.S. dan Kristijadi (2003) “Analisis Rasio Keuangan untuk Memprediksi Kondisi Financial Distress Perusahaan Manufaktur yang Terdaftar Di Bursa Efek Indonesia,” Jurnal Akuntansi dan Auditing Indonesia, 7(2), hal. 183–210. Tersedia pada: https://journal.uii.ac.id/JAAI/article/view/846.
Altman, E.I. (1968) “Financial Ratios, Discriminant Analysis and the Prediction of Corporate Bankruptcy,” The Journal of Finance, 23(4), hal. 589–609. Tersedia pada: https://doi.org/10.2307/2978933.
Altman, E.I. dan Hotchkiss, E. (2011) Corporate Financial Distress and Bankruptcy: Predict and Avoid Bankruptcy, Analyze and Invest in Distressed Debt. 3 ed. Hoboken: John Wiley & Sons Inc.
Ashraf, S., Félix, E.G.S. dan Serrasqueiro, Z. (2019) “Do Traditional Financial Distress Prediction Models Predict the Early Warning Signs of Financial Distress?,” Journal of Risk and Financial Management, 12(2), hal. 55. Tersedia pada: https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm12020055.
Aviantara, R. (2023) “Scoring the financial distress and the financial statement fraud of Garuda Indonesia with «DDCC» as the financial solutions,” Journal of Modelling in Management, 18(1), hal. 1–16. Tersedia pada: https://doi.org/10.1108/JM2-01-2020-0017.
Beaver, W.H. (1966) “Financial Ratios As Predictors of Failure,” Journal of Accounting Research, 4, hal. 71–111. Tersedia pada: https://doi.org/10.2307/2490171.
Brigham, E.F. dan Houston, J.F. (2019) Fundamentals of Financial Management. 15 ed. Boston: Cengage Learning, Inc.
Buzgurescu, O.L.P. dan Elena, N. (2020) “Bankruptcy Risk Prediction in Assuring the Financial Performance of Romanian Industrial Companies,” in S. Grima, E. Özen, dan H. Boz (ed.) Contemporary Issues in Business Economics and Finance. Emerald Publishing Limited (Contemporary Studies in Economic and Financial Analysis), hal. 19–28. Tersedia pada: https://doi.org/10.1108/S1569-375920200000104003.
Calandro, J. (2007) “Considering the utility of Altman’s score as a strategic assessment and performance management tool,” Strategy & Leadership, 35(5), hal. 37–43. Tersedia pada: https://doi.org/10.1108/10878570710819206.
Carolina, V., Marpaung, E.I. dan Pratama, D. (2017) “Analisis Rasio Keuangan untuk Memprediksi Kondisi Financial Distress (Studi Empiris pada Perusahaan Manufaktur yang Terdaftar di Bursa Efek Indonesia Periode 2014-2015),” Jurnal Akuntansi Maranatha, 9(2), hal. 137–145. Tersedia pada: https://doi.org/10.28932/jam.v9i2.481.
Darsono dan Ashari (2006) Pedoman Praktis Memahami Laporan Keuangan: (Tip bagi Investor, Direksi, dan Pemegang Saham). Yogyakarta: CV. Andi Offset.
DeANGELO, H. dan DeANGELO, L. (1990) “Dividend Policy and Financial Distress: An Empirical Investigation of Troubled NYSE Firms,” The Journal of Finance, 45(5), hal. 1415–1431. Tersedia pada: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.1990.tb03721.x.
Elloumi, F. dan Gueyié, J. (2001) “Financial distress and corporate governance: an empirical analysis,” Corporate Governance: The international journal of business in society, 1(1), hal. 15–23. Tersedia pada: https://doi.org/10.1108/14720700110389548.
Elviani, S. et al. (2020) “The Accuracy of the Altman, Ohlson, Springate and Zmejewski Models in Bankruptcy Predicting Trade Sector Companies in Indonesia,” Budapest International Research and Critics Institute (BIRCI-Journal) : Humanities and Social Sciences, 3(1), hal. 334–347. Tersedia pada: https://doi.org/10.33258/birci.v3i1.777.
Fadrul, F. dan Ridawati, R. (2020) “Analysis of Method Used to Predict Financial Distress Potential in Pulp and Paper Companies of Indonesia,” International Journal of Economics Development Research (IJEDR), 1(1), hal. 57–69. Tersedia pada: https://doi.org/10.37385/ijedr.v1i1.29.
Febriana, S.K. dan Wahidahwati, W. (2018) “Analisis Perbandingan Model Altman Z-Score, Zmijewski, Ohlson, dan Grover dalam Memprediksi Financial Distress,” Jurnal Ilmu dan Riset Akuntansi, 7(9), hal. 1–22. Tersedia pada: http://jurnalmahasiswa.stiesia.ac.id/index.php/jira/article/view/1131.
Indriyanti, M. (2019) “The Accuracy of Financial Distress Prediction Models: Empirical Study on the World’s 25 Biggest Tech Companies in 2015–2016 Forbes’s Version,” in 3rd ICEEBA International Conference on Economics, Education, Business and Accounting. Dubai: KnE Social Sciences, hal. 442–450. Tersedia pada: https://doi.org/10.18502/kss.v3i11.4025.
Komarudin, Syafnita dan Ilmiani, A. (2019) “Analisis Komparasi Prediksi Financial Distress Metode Grover, Altman, Springate, Zmijewski, dan Ohlson pada Perusahaan Pertambangan di BEI,” Jurnal Ekonomi dan Bisnis, 22(2), hal. 36–43. Tersedia pada: https://jurnal.unikal.ac.id/index.php/jebi/article/view/991.
Kusuma, R. (2017) Analisis pengukuran financial distress dengan model analisis Altman, Springate, Zmijewski, Ohlson, dan Grover sebagai early warning system: Studi kasus pada perusahaan sektor pertambangan batubara yang terdaftar di Bursa Efek Indonesia. Universitas Islam Negeri Maulana Malik Ibrahim Malang. Tersedia pada: http://etheses.uin-malang.ac.id/11369/.
Laurila, K. (2020) Accuracy comparison of accounting-based bankruptcy prediction models of Springate (1978), Ohlson (1980) and Altman (2000) to US manufacturing companies 1990-2018. Aalto University School of Business. Tersedia pada: https://aaltodoc.aalto.fi/handle/123456789/42858.
Matturungan, N.H., Purwanto, B. dan Irwanto, A.K. (2017) “Manufacturing Company Bankruptcy Prediction in Indonesia With Altman Z-Score Model,” Jurnal Aplikasi Manajemen, 15(1), hal. 18–24. Tersedia pada: https://doi.org/10.18202/jam23026332.15.1.03.
Ogachi, D. et al. (2020) “Corporate Bankruptcy Prediction Model, a Special Focus on Listed Companies in Kenya,” Journal of Risk and Financial Management, 13(3), hal. 47. Tersedia pada: https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm13030047.
Prasetianingtias, E. dan Kusumowati, D. (2019) “Analisis Perbandingan Model Altman, Grover, Zmijewski dan Springate Sebagai Prediksi Financial Distress,” Jurnal Akuntansi dan Perpajakan, 5(1), hal. 9–14. Tersedia pada: https://doi.org/10.26905/ap.v5i1.3072.
Presiden RI (2004) Undang-undang (UU) Nomor 37 Tahun 2004 tentang Kepailitan Dan Penundaan Kewajiban Pembayaran Utang. Indonesia: JDIH BPK RI Database Peraturan. Tersedia pada: https://peraturan.bpk.go.id/Details/40784/uu-no-37-tahun-2004.
Qiu, W., Rudkin, S. dan Dłotko, P. (2020) “Refining understanding of corporate failure through a topological data analysis mapping of Altman’s Z-score model,” Expert Systems with Applications, 156, hal. 113475. Tersedia pada: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eswa.2020.113475.
Stankevičienė, J. dan Prazdeckaitė, G. (2021) “Analysis of the accuracy of bankruptcy prediction models: the case of Lithuanian companies,” Science and Studies of Accounting and Finance: Problems and Perspectives, 15(1), hal. 44–53. Tersedia pada: https://doi.org/10.15544/ssaf.2021.05.
Subramanyam, K.R. dan Wild, J.J. (2010) Analisis Laporan Keuangan: Financial Statement Analysis. 10 ed. Jakarta: Salemba Empat.
Suwaydan, M. (2003) “The Ratio Model Versus the Cash Flow Model, and the Prediction of Bankruptcy: An Empirical Examination,” Abhath Al-Yarmouk Humanities and Social Sciences - AYHSS, 19(2B), hal. 89–105. Tersedia pada: http://repository.yu.edu.jo/handle/123456789/3489.
Syamni, G., Majid, M.S.A. dan Siregar, W.V. (2018) “Bankruptcy Prediction Models and Stock Prices of the Coal Mining Industry in Indonesia,” Etikonomi, 17(1), hal. 57–68. Tersedia pada: https://doi.org/10.15408/etk.v17i1.6559.
Utama, B.I. (2018) ANALISIS KEAKURATAN MODEL OHLSON DALAM MEMPREDIKSI KEBANGKRUTAN (BANKRUPTCY) (Studi pada Perusahaan Delisting yang terdaftar di BEI periode 2013-2017). Universitas Brawijaya. Tersedia pada: http://repository.ub.ac.id/id/eprint/161973/1/Bayu Insan Utama.pdf.
Wahidah, M. (2021) Analisis financial distress dengan model altman, zmijewski, grover, springate, ohlson, dan ca-score untuk memprediksi kebangkrutan pada perusahaan perbankan yang terdaftar di BEI periode 2016-2020. Universitas Islam Negeri Maulana Malik Ibrahim Malang. Tersedia pada: http://etheses.uin-malang.ac.id/30217/.
Whitaker, R.B. (1999) “The early stages of financial distress,” Journal of Economics and Finance, 23(2), hal. 123–132. Tersedia pada: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02745946.
Yuliastry, E.C. dan Wirakusuma, M.G. (2014) “Analisis Financial Distress dengan Metode Z-Score Altman, Springate, Zmijewski,” E-Jurnal Akuntansi Universitas Udayana, 6(3), hal. 379–389. Tersedia pada: https://ojs.unud.ac.id/index.php/Akuntansi/article/view/8336.
Zmijewski, M.E. (1984) “Methodological Issues Related to the Estimation of Financial Distress Prediction Models,” Journal of Accounting Research, 22, hal. 59–82. Tersedia pada: https://doi.org/10.2307/2490859.